Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Arsenal returns home on short rest to play a second consecutive London Derby. 

Mikel Arteta’s side traveled to Chelsea on Sunday and now returns home to play Brentford on Wednesday. Last season, Arsenal took six points out of six against the Bees. 

For Brentford, the match offers a chance to bag back-to-back wins. On Saturday, manager Keith Andrews led Brentford to a 3-1 win as home favorites against Burnley. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs Brentford prediction. 

Arsenal vs Brentford: Premier League Odds

Brentford vs Arsenal: Prediction

Based on Brentford’s poor road defensive record and Arsenal’s recent attacking metrics, my Arsenal vs Brentford prediction is Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals (+120). 

This prediction largely stems from the price. This season, Brentford has allowed two or more goals in all but one road match, with two of six clearing this benchmark. 

That comes despite a relatively easy schedule of offenses away from home. Only once has Brentford played a top-five attack by post-shot expected goals on the road this season. 

On November 22, Brighton managed two tallies off 1.6 post-shot xG against Brentford. That performance came with Brentford playing on extended rest. 

Now the Bees face an Arsenal attack that has recorded strong attacking metrics recently. The Gooners surpassed three post-shot xG against both Tottenham and Bayern Munich. 

So far this season, Arsenal has finished over 2.5 goals at home in five of nine EPL and Champions League matches combined. 

In Premier League play, Arsenal has cleared 2.5 goals in three of six matches. By post-shot xG, Arsenal averaged 2.08 psxG per 90 minutes. 

The only failures came against Manchester City and Crystal Palace. Brentford ranks behind both of those defenses in post-shot expected goals allowed. 

Regardless of venue, Arsenal created at least two post-shot xG in seven of 13 matches this year. Plus, bettors have seen this attack exploit Brentford’s defense. 

Last year, Arsenal went to the GTech Community Stadium and scored three times. In that match, Arteta’s attack generated 3.16 post-shot expected goals. 

Given those factors, I predict the hosts run rampant against an overrated defense.