Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

It’s the marquee fixture of Sunday’s Premier League slate as Aston Villa travel to London for a match against Arsenal. 

Arsenal thrashed Brighton 3-0 in their most recent Premier League fixture before drawing Bayern Munich 2-2 in their midweek Champions League fixture. 

As for Aston Villa, they drew 3-3 in their most recent Premier League fixture against Brentford. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

• Arsenal Moneyline: -375
• Aston Villa Moneyline: +950
• Draw Moneyline: +525
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

Arsenal Spread (-1.5, -145) vs. Villa – Wait for Lineups

Although it’s a lot of juice to lay with the hosts, I’ll be surprised if they don’t win outright on Sunday. 

A cover is more difficult to predict, especially with a Wednesday Champions League trip to Munich looming. However, history says it’s a good spot for manager Mikel Arteta’s side. 

The first factor to note here is that, under Arteta, Arsenal is 7-0 SU at home in games immediately following a win by three or more goals and 10-2 SU irrespective of venue. 

Additionally, Arsenal is 59.6% ATS as a home favorite under Arteta, including 13-10 at -1.5 or higher. 

There’s another system that suggests they’ll both win and cover the spread. 

Essentially, bettors are wise to fade road underdogs coming off a non-win as home favorites. 

Since the 2021-22 season, home favorites with a winning percentage north of 60% are 25-6 SU and 23-7-1 ATS assuming the following factors: 

• The opponent was a home favorite in their previous game
• The opponent’s previous game margin was between -4 and 0
• The spread is between -2 and 0

When that home favorite lost the previous head-to-head meeting, they’re 6-2 SU and ATS over that same timeframe. 

It’s also a nightmare scheduling spot for Aston Villa, who face a Thursday Europa Conference league fixture at home before heading to London on Sunday. 

That gives Arsenal two extra days of rest over Villa. Plus, Villa has struggled away from home against quality competition this season. 

In trips to Liverpool and Manchester City, manager Unai Emery’s side is 0-2 SU and has allowed both teams to create at least 2.5 expected goals. 

Lastly, although Villa earned a 1-0 home win in the previous meeting, they basically held on for dear life after taking an early lead. 

That showed itself in the underlying stats, which saw Arsenal win the expected goals battle 1.4 to 0.6 and the big scoring chances battle 4-0, per fotmob.com. 

As a result, back the hosts to earn a straight up win against a Villa side on short rest.

Arsenal Form 

April 9 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2, D (Champions League)

April 6 at Brighton: 3-0, W

April 3 vs. Luton Town: 2-0, W

March 31 at Man City: 0-0, D

March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)

Aston Villa Form

April 11 vs. Lille

April 3 at Man City: 1-4, L

March 30 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W

March 17 at West Ham: 1-1, D

March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)

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