Valspar Championship 2025: Best Bets, Predictions

The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing will come to an end with the Valspar Championship, March 20-23, from the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort just outside Tampa.

While not a PGA Tour signature event, a number of stars are in the field, including Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth. 

It will not be a birdie fest by any means, as the winning score over the last 10 editions has only been higher than 12-under three times. 

As of Tuesday, Tommy Fleetwood has the best odds to win at +1200.

I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Good Drives Gained, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, Par-3 Scoring, Par-5 Scoring and Strokes Gained: Putting.

*odds as of March 18.

Valspar Championship Prediction

Tommy Fleetwood is expected to win the Valspar Championship with a 7.69% implied probability, according to betting markets. Justin Thomas is next at 6.67%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Valspar Championship Best Bets

Taylor Moore Outright Winner (+4500)

History at the Valspar Championship has shown previous winners can win again and quickly. Paul Casey went back-to-back in 2018 and 2019, and then Sam Burns went back-to-back in 2021 and 2022.

While I am not selecting Peter Malnati to defend his title, I am looking to Taylor Moore to win for the second time in three years. 

The 31-year-old finished T-12 in his title defense last year and comes in playing some quality golf. He’s made seven straight cuts, highlighted by a T-9 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T-7 at The American Express. He also finished a respectable T-33 at the Players last weekend, which included a 68 on Friday.

Moore also excels in a number of key metrics, including being in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Par-5 Scoring.

Building off his success at the Copperhead Course, don’t be surprised to see Moore in contention late Sunday afternoon.

Will Zalatoris Top-10 Finish (+275)

Yes, Zalatoris hasn’t had a top-10 finish since the Masters last year, but there are signs he’s turning things around now that he’s fully recovered and healthy after back surgery a few years back.

Zalatoris is playing some solid golf; he’s just not putting four rounds together. The Players Championship was a perfect example. He was in contention deep into the third round, but a horrible back-nine led to a Saturday 78 and a T-30 finish.

While he’s finished no worse than T-48 in the six events he’s played in, he’s had at least one round of 73 or higher in five of them. 

Zalatoris was able to bounce back with a solid 1-under 71 Sunday at TPC Sawgrass, which should give him confidence heading into a course that should fit his eye.

Michael Kim Top-20 Finish (+180)

Kim checks a number of boxes off this week, so much so that he’s No. 1 in my mixed condition model.

A missed cut at the Players Championship could have been a blessing in disguise, giving him a few days off. This will be Kim’s 10th straight week playing in an event, a stretch that has seen him in contention in virtually all of them (five top 13s).

The two days off could be the resurgence he needs to get back to his pre-Players Championship form, where he finished T-13 or better in five consecutive tournaments.