U.S. Open 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

The third major of the season is here with the U.S. Open, June 12-15, from Oakmont Country Club, just outside of Pittsburgh.

There’s been plenty of chatter regarding the course setup – a 289-yard par-3 and two par-5s stretching over 600 yards – and brutal rough that will force players to hack out sideways with a wedge.

It would not be a surprise to see the winning score over par for the week. The players who play the best will be patient and avoid big numbers. 

Going into the week, Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win at +275. He’s won three of his last four starts, including the PGA Championship. 

With it being a major, the LIV Golf players will be in the field, including defending champion Bryson DeChambeau.

When it comes to metrics, I will be prioritizing the following: Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Proximity 100-150 yards, Driving Distance, Bogey Avoidance, Double Bogey Avoidance, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting.

*Odds as of June 10

U.S. Open Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the U.S. Open with a 26.67% implied probability, according to betting markets. Bryson DeChambeau is next at 11.76%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

U.S. Open Best Bets

Russell Henley Outright Winner (+6000)

While Henley had missed the cut in the first two majors of the year, he has a great track record at U.S. Open’s. The Georgia product has five top-25 finishes overall, including top-15 finishes in three of his last four and a career-best T-7 a year ago.

Henley has also performed best at difficult courses, including winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this year. 

He enters the event in solid form, coming off a T-5 at the Memorial held at Murifield Village, another difficult course.

Henley’s gritty mindset is perfect for a U.S. Open, especially one where par is a good score. He won’t overpower anyone with distance, but will stay in play off the tee and lean on his putter to make big putts when he has to.

Add in the nugget that seven of the last 10 U.S. Open winners were first-time major winners, a number of things are going in Henley’s favor this week.

Harris English Outright Winner (+8000)

English is very similar to Henley, and not just because they both are Georgia Bulldogs. English also has had a lot of success on tough courses, including winning the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year at Torrey Pines, which has hosted the U.S. Open before. 

The 35-year-old is playing exceptional golf this year. In addition to his win, he’s finished inside the top 12 at both majors, including T-2 at the PGA Championship. He also finished T-12 at his last event, the Memorial.

English is also like Henley, where he relies on accuracy off the tee and above-average putting.

Lastly, he has three top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open, so he knows what it takes to be in contention at the year’s third major.

Ludvig Aberg Top-10 Finish (+225)

It’s been a weird year for Aberg, who won earlier this year at the Genesis Invitational, held at Torrey Pines, but had a stretch of six tournaments where he missed three cuts and finished 50th or worse two other times. 

Aberg is coming off back-to-back finishes of T-16 or better, so it seems like he’s rounding back into form. 

The U.S. Open seems to suit his game well. He’s very in control with his game, doesn’t get too up or down, and hits his golf ball very straight. 

It’s hard to fully get behind him given his recent struggles, but there are signs he’s turned it around.

Harris English Top-20 Finish (+240)

I am very bullish on English this week, which is also why I’m going with him for a top-20 finish at a pretty good number. 

Patrick Reed Top-20 Finish (+300)

Reed’s game is best for difficult courses, and this week is just that. 

In addition, Oakmont is somewhat similar to Augusta National, a place he’s won and has four other top-10 finishes, including a solo third this year. 

When it comes to U.S. Open’s he has five top-20 finishes in 10 appearances overall.