The United States Will Win the Ryder Cup If…

FARMINGDALE, N.Y. — In the last five editions of the Ryder Cup, the home team has held serve, not only winning, but winning by an average margin of 6.6 points.

That should come as good news for American fans and backers of the red, white and blue, as Keegan Bradley’s squad is seeking to continue that trend at Bethpage Black.

Simply playing on home soil, of course, does not equate to victory. The team will need plenty of things to go in their favor in order to lift the trophy this Sunday afternoon.

The U.S. team will win if… these five things happen. And here are five reasons Europe will win.

Scottie Scheffler plays like the world’s best player.

I’ve always been a firm believer that the X-factor for a team in a major sporting event can’t also be the best player. That would be like giving the Best Supporting Actor award to someone who played the title character role.

So, let’s not call Scheffler the U.S. team’s X-factor. He’s more like the It Factor.

Here in New York, baseball legend Reggie Jackson was referred to as both The Straw That Stirs the Drink and Mr. October. Considering the final matches end just a few days before the year’s 10th month begins, he’ll have to settle for being the straw – and for good reason.

The world’s No. 1-ranked player, a guy with two major titles this year, can’t be mediocre this week. If he goes 0-2-2 – as he did two years ago in Rome – this team not only loses, it potentially loses in a landslide.

As the only player who will presumably compete in all five sessions – unless something goes horribly wrong or surprisingly right – Scottie might not even be able to settle for something in the 2-2-1 neighborhood for this team to win. It might take a replication of Dustin Johnson’s 5-0-0 record at Whistling Straights in 2021, which is a tall task, but hardly impossible.

If that happens – and yes, it’s a big if – then just do the math: The U.S. would need only 9½ points in the other 23 matches in order to clinch the victory. There’s absolutely a credible scenario in which Scheffler carries this squad to success. 

Keegan Bradley convinces his players of the “No I in team” concept

When the U.S. captain announced his half-dozen wildcard selections and didn’t include himself, it set an immediate tone for his players: This week is about team over individual and sacrifices will be made.

For a team which has been accused in the past of not being enough of a cohesive unit, this is a massive step in the right direction – even if it doesn’t show a tangible impact on performance or results.

On Monday morning, Bradley could be seen gathering his squad in a football-like huddle, each player and assistant with one hand raised as if they were about to enter the fourth quarter of a tied game.

Does this buy-in from the players guarantee victory for the home side? Of course not. But in 11 short years, we’ve come a long way from the captain imploring his players to play better, then passing the buck when they didn’t. Win or lose, they’ll do it as a team this week.

The New York crowds have a massive impact.

As someone who grew up not too far from Bethpage State Park, I can say with full assurance that my fellow New Yorkers are not a quiet bunch.

Sure, the Ryder Cup is a destination event and there will be plenty of spectators from parts unknown, even those rooting for the European side, but the majority of these crowds will consist of New York fans who won’t be bashful about their allegiance.

I was here in 2002, when the underlying subplot of Tiger Woods’ U.S. Open victory was Sergio Garcia’s incessant waggles before each swing, which the local folks gleefully counted aloud and in unison, prompting Sergio to let them know he believed they’re No. 1 by offering up a certain finger. 

And that was during a major championship. At a Ryder Cup, when there exists a decided partisanship? It might behoove the Europeans to simply wave their arms before every shot and request the crowd noise, rather than ask for quiet and incur the wrath of a few yellers in their backswings.

Nobody is rooting for a lack of decorum, nobody is hoping this turns into something out of the Waterbury Open, but if the fans get loud – and especially if they get loud at inopportune times – it could lead to a massive advantage for the home team.

It gets off to a hot start Friday morning.

This one doesn’t take much to connect the dots: In the last four editions of the Ryder Cup, the home team has won.

Also in the last four editions of the Ryder Cup, the home team has held a massive advantage in the foursomes format, winning by a score of 24½-7½.

And lastly, this week’s edition of the Ryder Cup – like three of the last four – will begin with a foursomes session.

Put it all together and you can understand why it’s so important for the U.S. to get off to a strong start in the format which so often dictates the eventual winner.

Bryson DeChambeau finds a partner.

It would be a surprise if Scheffler doesn’t play at least a few matches alongside Russell Henley, with whom he went 2-1-0 at last year’s Presidents Cup. It would similarly be a curveball if Xander Schauffele isn’t paired with Patrick Cantlay, as that partnership has endured in every U.S. team competition since the 2019 Presidents Cup.

DeChambeau should be considered the squad’s third alpha, but unlike the other two, he doesn’t have a built-in partner.

Common sense suggests he should have a fairways-and-greens type alongside for the four-ball matches (Collin Morikawa? J.J. Spaun?), while tradition states he’d play best with a like-minded partner in foursomes (Cameron Young? Ben Griffin?).

Whomever it might be – or whatever combination Bradley chooses – getting the best out of Bryson might be yet another key to the U.S. team finding success this week.