Tour Championship Predictions: Outright Winner, Top 5, Top 10 Picks

The 47th and final tournament of the 2024 PGA Tour season is finally upon us, as the top-30 on the current FedEx Cup points list will once again convene at East Lake Golf Club to determine an individual champion.

If you’re among those who believe that it’s silly to continue contesting a playoff format when we’ve already determined that Scottie Scheffler has been the best of the best this year, well, you’re not alone – he used that exact description when offering his criticism recently.

Similar terminology will undoubtedly be employed by those who disapprove of the staggered scoring start, which places Scheffler at 10-under to begin the week, leading by two strokes over the next-closest competitor and as much as 10 over others.

At the very least, this format allows for multiple wagering options, with markets available for both the FedEx Cup title and raw scoring with every player at the same starting line.

Scheffler (+110 with the staggered start) has been my back-of-the-mind selection here for the past few months. Even though he’s struggled on this course in the past, entering as the No. 1 seed and failing to win each of the past two years, it’s difficult to think that offering the world’s best player a multi-stroke advantage will result in anything other success.

That said, he’s appeared more frustrated these past two weeks than perhaps at any other point during the season, which should make us believe that history could repeat itself here yet again.

The more obvious choice here is Xander Schauffele (+225), who starts two shots off the lead, but has shown a propensity for playing his best golf at East Lake. In the past seven years, he’s never finished worse than seventh in scoring without the stagger, three times posting the lowest score and five times inside the top-three.

FedEx St. Jude Championship winner Hideki Matsuyama (+1000) posted an opening-round 67 at the BMW Championship before withdrawing the following day with a back injury. He could turn what was a Very Hideki Thing into the Most Hideki Thing Ever by going WIN-WD-WIN in three straight events.

Then there’s Keegan Bradley (+2800), who started last week as the final player in the 50-man field, only to win and move up to fourth on the points list for the finale, starting at 6-under. In nine of the last 12 years, we’ve seen the same player win multiple playoff events, so there’s some rationale behind playing the hot hand.

With that in mind, let’s get to the picks for both the staggered and non-staggered markets. 

Tour Championship Outright Picks

With bonus strokes applied: Xander Schauffele (+225)

Golf sometimes doesn’t make any sense, betting often doesn’t make any sense, and golf betting almost always doesn’t make any sense at all, but this play makes way too much sense from every perspective. I’m a big fan of the past-performance-is-not-an-indicator-of-future-results mantra and will readily admit that on the eve of football season this one feels like a “trap game,” with the public collectively thinking it’s taking the sharp route.

But I’m also a fan of Occam’s Razor and Schauffele feels like the simplest explanation here. Not only does he own a near-flawless record on this golf course, he’s been top-five at each of the first two playoff events after a year in which he clearly gained a healthy dose of confidence by winning his first two major championship titles. While +225 might not seem like a great number, it’s the same as playing about a 6-point underdog on the money line, which suggests there’s still a bit of value on the man starting in second place.

Without bonus strokes applied: Russell Henley (+2800)

Few players get less out of their overall performance in terms of results than Henley, which could be a backhanded way of saying the four-time PGA Tour doesn’t close very often – just once, in fact, since 2017 – but also helps explain just how good he’s been recently, without a whole lot of fanfare.

Henley is currently ranked 17th in total strokes gained, which is the greatest barometer of performance, and he ranks inside the top-half in every major statistical category. He hasn’t lost strokes with his irons since The Players Championship and has only lost strokes with his driver once since then. It would only be fitting if Henley posts the lowest score this week and doesn’t get a trophy for it. 

Tour Championship Top-5 Picks

With bonus strokes applied: Patrick Cantlay (+188) and Sam Burns (+275)

Both Cantlay and Burns will start the week in a share of sixth place at 4-under, which means neither needs much movement to climb into the top-five. Perhaps, though, that might just be a hedge for the bigger price. If Schauffele (and Scheffler, obviously) falters, locking either of these guys in at 33/1 to claim the FedEx Cup might not be a terrible idea.

Tour Championship Top-10 Picks

With bonus strokes applied: Billy Horschel (+800)

Look, if you’re betting the top-10 in this market, you’ll need to find a guy pretty far down the opening 30-man leaderboard. Horschel starts the week at 1-under, nine shots off the lead, but a potential Presidents Cup bid should have him plenty motivated to make run up the board. He’d posted three straight top-10s before last week’s T-22 result.