Tour Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Scottie Scheffler did it again on Sunday afternoon at the BMW Championship and the hard truth is that I could probably save you from reading the next 2,087 words previewing this week’s Tour Championship by simply suggesting you click his name, load up on Scottie outrights and collect your money when he wins again.

Of course, you’re not going to love the price, but you probably knew that already.

Scheffler opens the week at +165 against 29 of the PGA Tour’s other upper-level players, a number which serves as evidence of his dominance when compared with a few of his other prices in prior betting markets.

One year ago, the man ranked No. 1 on the FedEx Cup points list was +120 entering the season finale – but that was including the staggered scoring start, when he began the week at 10-under, two shots clear of the next-closest pursuer and as much as 10 strokes ahead of some in the field.

This week, all 30 players will start at even-par – just like every other tournament during the season – a move which, ironically enough, happened at least in part at the behest of Scottie himself, who despite the personal benefit of a head start didn’t like the idea of anyone starting with an advantage.

So, let that one settle in: Scheffler of 2024, strapped to a lead before ever hitting his first shot of the week, was merely less than a half-point shorter in the outright market than Scheffler of 2025, who will begin on equal footing with every other competitor in this field.

This week’s opening number also proves how quickly a narrative can change in the world of professional golf.

Not that anyone was doubting Scottie before this, not that he was ever going to be anything but the overwhelming favorite for this event, but it’s interesting to note this number in relation to where he closed last week.

Entering the final round at Caves Valley, he trailed Robert MacIntyre by four strokes, but led the other 47 players in the BMW field. With the leader entrenched as a rightful favorite, Scheffler was +175 to win the tournament, which obviously paid off by day’s end.

Again, that’s worth a second thought: With 18 holes left to play and trailing just one other on the leaderboard, Scheffler’s odds were longer than they are this week, when he’ll start in a tie with 29 others and 72 holes remaining.

All of which should tell us that either the oddsmakers or the public – and very possibly both – believe it’s something close to a foregone conclusion that Scheffler will go back-to-back as the FedEx Cup champion.

I’m not going to tell you that it can’t – or won’t – happen, but I will arm you with some information before you blindly buy into that +165 number.

While Scheffler won with the staggered start last year, he was “only” third on the gross 72-hole leaderboard, two strokes shy of Collin Morikawa and one behind Sahith Theegala.

Perhaps that performance – four rounds of 67 or better – signified that he’s figured something out at East Lake. In the three previous years, he’d finished 21st, 13th and 17th for overall score, though he was second back in 2020, the first time he played this tournament.

It can be argued that Scheffler is a more proven closer right now than he was in any of those years, armed with a putter that’s hotter than it’s ever been before, and buoyed by a wealth of momentum after last week’s victory.

But +165 is the type of number we’d see prime Tiger Woods at, say, Bay Hill or Torrey Pines or Muirfield Village – places where he won more frequently than he didn’t. This isn’t to suggest it’s the wrong price for Scheffler this week. Just understand that you’re buying low on a guy who’s never been the best player at East Lake in five previous attempts.

With all of that in mind, let’s try to find a few guys who could somehow upend Scottie this week – or at least have some value in those “Without Scheffler” markets.

Tour Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Sam Burns (+2200)

Before going too deep here, allow me to again suggest that any non-Scheffler selection this week is better served in the market where we essentially erase him from the surface of the Earth and simply choose from the other 29 players in this field. Burns is one of 12 players at East Lake – along with Tommy Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre, Maverick McNealy, Corey Conners, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, Harry Hall, Jacob Bridgeman, Sungjae Im and Akshay Bhatia – with a chance to win the FedEx Cup without having previously won a tournament this season. That scenario might not be the PGA Tour’s worst nightmare – in fact, a win from any of those dozen could validate that it’s a true “playoff” format where anyone who gets in can take the big prize – but it would surely ring a bit hollow if a player who certainly wasn’t amongst the best during the season is able to able to claim the grand prize, though that’s a very real possibility when the finale mirrors any other short-field event where the low score wins.

Last week’s T-4 at the BMW was his best result since a playoff loss at the RBC Canadian Open a few months ago, but the numbers have been trending in the right direction for a while. I don’t hate the idea of treating this event in much the same way as we often do FRL plays – which is to say, I’m seeking highly volatile players with high ceilings and, most importantly, those who can get red-hot with the flatstick. Burns is among the best putters on the PGA Tour and that edge spikes on Bermuda greens. Maybe it’ll take one of Scottie’s best buddies to beat him at this one. 

Aggressive: Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)

If it would be wild for one of those dozen players without a win to wrap up the season with a FedEx Cup title, well, it would only be slightly less mind-numbing if the winner was Matsuyama, whose results table has barely made any sense this year. He opened the season with a victory at The Sentry, which somehow still stands as his lone top-10. There were certainly some below-standard performances and the usual injury concerns which so often impact Hideki, but he’s been showing some signs of reverting to something close to his best stuff lately.

He’s finished top-30 in his last six starts – granted, three of them were in smaller fields – and top-20 in four of those. His approach stats had been through the roof until last week, when he lost slightly to the field, and while he doesn’t own a terrific record at East Lake, strong iron play should be the first key to unlocking success here. Matsuyama is trying to post golf’s version of a race car driver who leads after the first lap, sputters through most of the race, then steps on the gas pedal down the stretch to capture the checkered flag, but bookend wins is hardly out of the question. 

Tour Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Tommy Fleetwood (+150)

What, like you thought someone else’s name would be listed here? Of all the potential winner storylines, few would resonate like Fleetwood, whose much-heralded folds at the end of the Travelers Championship and FedEx St. Jude Championship have left him still seeking that elusive first PGA Tour title. It’s almost a bit comical at this point – for everyone besides Tommy himself and those who continue to back him in the outright markets – only because he’s so much more talented than so many others who have not just won at the highest level, but have won on multiple occasions.

We can analyze his lack of killer instinct or propensity to hit the wrong shot at the wrong time, but the fact of the matter is that he’s easily one of the top-10 most talented ball-strikers in the game right now and while nothing is inevitable, it certainly feels like he’s going to get one at some point. That said, I don’t blame you for being more than a little gun-shy at the prospect of playing him in the outright market – even the “Without Scheffler” board – so I’ll stick with a top-five here at a short number, hoping for Tommy’s sake that this one doesn’t come armed with another heaping dose of heartache. 

Aggressive: Harris English (+350)

While so many in this field remain motivated to claim one of the six wildcard selections to either the U.S. or European Ryder Cup team which will soon be announced, there might be an advantage to those who have already relieved their shoulders of such weight. English finished fifth on the U.S. points list, thanks to a win at Torrey Pines and runner-up finishes at two majors, locking up one of the automatic spots on Keegan Bradley’s squad. That in itself makes this year a successful one for the Georgia Bulldog, which suggests he can just go play solid golf this week without worry about any potential repercussions. There aren’t too many prices in the placement markets which will get bettors excited in this limited field, but English’s price isn’t terrible and his upside remains very high, as we’ve seen multiple times this season.

Tour Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Maverick McNealy (+120)

As I wrote last week in detailing the potential for each American candidate to make the Ryder Cup team, there might not have been a player inside the top-15 on the points list getting less pub than McNealy – at least until the weekend of the BMW, when he closed with a 66 and finished in sole possession of third place. He should now clearly be on the radar, if for no other reason than the captain played four rounds of golf alongside him over the past two weeks, getting an up-close-and-personal view of his game. McNealy desperately wants to be on that team and while I’m very aware of the inconsistencies of selecting one player because he no longer has that Ryder Cup motivation and another because he still has it, I do think Mav could have some Ryan Moore circa 2016 vibes in his favor this week.

Aggressive: Andrew Novak (+300)

While I get that he finished DFL at 20-over last week, I still think Novak is mispriced at being the longest odds in the week’s field, behind the likes of Im and Bridgeman. That’s extremely nitpicky, of course, and while I’m hardly bullish on Novak, there’s reason to think he won’t carry the weight of that result with him to East Lake.

The truth is, some of Novak’s best performances this season have come directly after some of his worst. He missed the cut at The American Express, then finished solo third at the Farmers Insurance Open the very next week; he followed an MC at the WM Phoenix Open with a T-13 at the Genesis Invitational; he again MC’d at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, then went T-3 at the Valero Texas Open; another MC at the PGA Championship and a T-11 at the Charles Schwab Challenge one week later; and yet another MC at the Wyndham Championship was followed by a T-6 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. That all feels like more pattern than coincidence. If there’s a guy we should trust a bit after an exceedingly poor performance, it’s Novak. 

Tour Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Scottie Scheffler (+500)

If you’re seeking a Scottie investment this week, but can’t get yourself to pay the outright price, check out the bigger number in the FRL market, where there’s a decent chance he could simply create his own staggered scoring start entering the second round. I don’t often (read: ever) like the favorite for FRL in full-field events with so many potential options elsewhere on the board, but a 30-man field should render Scheffler more live than so many other weeks. It would surprise absolutely nobody if he posts a 64 on Thursday and jumps out to an early lead.

Aggressive: Ben Griffin (+2200)

As long as he doesn’t ingest too much Creatine on the first tee – that’s a true story; Griffin says it happened on Sunday at the BMW, leading to a triple-double-bogey start – he should be a smart play to race out to another hot start. Ranked 20th in Round 1 scoring average this season, he’s posted 67 or better in eight of his last 12 openers, with three of the four outlier rounds taking place at major championships. That’s a scoring average of 66.78 on his last nine non-major Thursdays. We should only need something a notch below that to cash FRL tickets this week.