Tour Championship: 3 PGA Expert Picks This Week

The final PGA Tour event of the season takes place this week at East Lake: the Tour Championship. 

Starting strokes are gone from the format. Whoever wins the event this week earns the FedEx Cup prize, along with $10 million. 

Scottie Scheffler () arrives as the pre-tournament favorite. After Scheffler is Rory McIlroy (). 

After the two-headed monster comes Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg. No other players are priced shorter than +2000. 

Let’s dive into my PGA expert picks for the Tour Championship. Current golf odds at BetMGM are subject to movement. 

Tour Championship Odds

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Tour Championship

J.J. Spaun (+3000) to Win the Tour Championship

The big factor to note about East Lake: it’s long, and there’s a huge penalty for missing the fairway. 

That means fairways trump distance this week….except you also need to hit it a long way. The Par 70 measures over 7,400 yards, good for one of the longest courses on tour. 

Spaun excelled of late with his irons and thrived from tee to green at TPC Southwind. He lost in a playoff to Justin Rose in Memphis and has gained 11.8 strokes on approach in his last two. 

At Southwind – another long course that emphasizes fairways – Spaun gained 13.3 strokes from tee to green. 

Over his last 24 rounds, Spaun ranks sixth in my model. Over that span, he ranks the following in key categories:

• SG: T2G: 6th
• Greens in Regulation Gained: 8th
• Birdies or Better Gained: 3rd
• Par 4 Efficiency: 9th

Given he’s sixth in the model vs. 12th on the odds board, I like the price on Spaun to win. 

Tommy Fleetwood (+1200) to Win the Tour Championship

The number is objectively terrible. But in this moment, I’ll separate the number from the fact Fleetwood should excel at East Lake. 

Fleetwood lacks distance off the tee compared to his counterparts. Over the last three months, he ranks 27th of 30th in driving distance gained. 

However, he also ranks second in fairways gained and sixth in proximity: 200+ yards. 

Fleetwood sits second to Scheffler in both the 24- and 36-round model projections. In the former, he ranks fourth, second and fifth in SG: T2G, good drives gained and SG: APP. 

He also ranks sixth in bogey avoidance and fifth in Par 4 Efficiency. 

The Englishman also owns a strong record at East Lake. He finished sixth here in 2023 after 16th and 11th, respectively, in 2019 and 2018. 

Cameron Young (+260) to Record a Top-5 Finish

I question if Young owns the skillset to dethrone Scheffler. But I love his profile this week on the heels of previous success at a Donald Ross design. 

Young won three events ago at the Wyndham Championship. Ross also designed Sedgefield Country Club, featuring green complexes similar to those at East Lake. 

That’s about the only similarity between Sedgefield and East Lake. After all, the former plays under 7,200 yards with the latter measuring over 7,400. 

But the fact that Young gained 10.3 strokes putting that week should encourage bettors. Additionally, he finished in a tie for fifth at TPC Southwind. 

Two weeks ago, Young gained 6.1 strokes from tee to green and 9.7 strokes ball striking. 

From a projection standpoint, Young ranks seventh in the 12-round model. Over that span, he ranks fourth in SG: T2G, eighth in GIRs gained and second in Par 4 Efficiency. 

He also ranks 23rd on tour this season in Par 4 birdies or better percentage. Further, he ranks fifth in driving distance gained and 12th in fairways gained over the last 12 rounds. 

Given those factors, I like Young from an implied probability measure. Given he’s seventh in the model, a 27.8% implied measure for a top-5 piques my interest.