Texas Children’s Houston Open Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

In the past year and three weeks, there’s been 44 official PGA Tour events contested.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have combined to win exactly one-quarter of them.

If you’re scoring at home, that’s seven for Scottie, which doesn’t even include his gold medal at the Olympics or his Hero World Challenge victory, and four for Rory, including two already this season.

Even those numbers don’t tell the entire story, though: Of those 44 events, neither player was in the field for 20 of ‘em.

Which means that either Scheffler or McIlroy has won nearly half of the tournaments which included at least one of them in the field during the last 55 weeks.

That leads us to this week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open, which feels like a nice spot to pick off a longshot winner, if not for the fact that the world’s two top-ranked players decided to use this tournament as a final tune-up for the year’s first major championship at Augusta National in a few weeks.

If, based on the above numbers, you prefer to go with the safe plays this week, I won’t talk you out of it. With opening odds of +330, Scheffler owns a 22.2% implied probability, while McIlroy’s odds of +700 show 14.9%.

That’s a combined implied probability of 37.1%, which seems hefty, yet pales in comparison to the actual probability of 45.8% that we’ve seen over the past year-plus.

So yes, there’s some mathematical sense in backing the two faves this week and simply hoping the cream rises to the top of the leaderboard.

The rest of us will be attempting to avoid those landmines which could blow up a contrarian card for this one.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Davis Thompson (+3300)

At the beginning of the year, there weren’t many players I was more bullish about – from the perspective of an elevation in status at the highest level – than Thompson, a big-hitting, sweet-swinging up-and-comer who already has a PGA Tour win (at last year’s John Deere Classic) and three runner-up results on his resume. I wrote at the time that I believed he’d make a run at being included on the U.S. Ryder Cup roster, but he’ll need to step on the gas pedal soon for that to happen.

That’s because Thompson has largely underwhelmed so far. He got into contention at the Genesis Invitational, only to shoot 76-72 on the weekend. The rest of his results include a couple of T-36s, a couple of finishes outside the top-50, and a trio of missed cuts. That is, until his most recent start at The Players Championship, where he finished in a share of 10th place with some very strong tee-to-green stats.

On a Memorial Park venue which has favored longer drivers since becoming a full-time PGA Tour stop five years ago, there are a lot of reasons to like Thompson, not the least of which is his T-21 finish here last year. If you’re avoiding the two short numbers on this board, there’s plenty of value not too much further down. 

Aggressive: Sahith Theegala (+5500)

Last week, my initial conservative outright and aggressive outright switched places on the board by the time the opening round started, due to one side of the draw having more favorable conditions than the other. (Spoiler alert: Neither won.) This week, I simply whiffed on guessing pre-tournament odds, as I’d assumed the more seasoned Theegala would own a shorter number than Thompson.

With that in mind, I love the former’s opening price at place where he finished T-28 last year. It’s been far from a stellar start to the season for Sahith — hence the bigger number — but the stats (save for a terrible final-round iron performance) were decent enough during his T-36 at last week’s Valspar Championship to pique my interest. Granted, price reflects results, but for a guy who was 25/1-30/1 in his first three starts of the year, getting him at double the number feels like a good time to pull the trigger.

And I’d be remiss if I didn’t also mention that this isn’t a bad week to look wayyy down the board. Again, we’re hoping to avoid Scottie and Rory; if that happens, this thing could be wide open. In addition to some of the names I’ll list below for finishing position bets, I don’t mind sprinkling on massive outright numbers for Alejandro Tosti (+25000), Chris Gotterup (+30000), Lanto Griffin (+30000), Taylor Montgomery (+30000) and Frankie Capan III (+50000). 

Texas Children’s Houston Open Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Max Greyserman (+1000)

It was admittedly a toss-up between Theegala and Greyserman (who’s also 55/1 in the outright market) for outright and top-five this week. I chose the way I did because I believe Theegala owns a higher ceiling and Greyserman a higher floor, but I certainly don’t mind interchanging these two.

Starting at last year’s 3M Open, Greyserman cashed top-five tickets in four of six starts and while he’s yet to replicate that success, he does own top-25s in three of his last four. The Duke product is never going to be the world’s best iron player, but a formidable driver/putter combo should have us recalling the potential of Wyndham Clark just before his breakthrough campaign a couple of years ago. On a driver-heavy course where winning scores have ranged from 16-under to 10-under, don’t be surprised if he rides this combo into contention once again. 

Aggressive: Max McGreevy (+1400) and Isaiah Salinda (+2200)

I’m listing both McGreevy and Salinda together — and for such a high finishing position play — because I see a ton of value here. If we’re focused on SG: Off the Tee (and we are), then a couple of guys who currently rank 25th and fifth, respectively, make a ton of sense. But I’m also listing them for top-fives to hammer a point.

Look, I could easily put Scheffler’s name here, then pat myself on the back when it cashes at short odds Sunday evening, but I like a sprinkling on these two as finishing position ladder plays, perhaps starting with top-40 tickets and working your way up. The McGreevy train, which was taking on plenty of passengers in recent weeks, got derailed a bit in Tampa, but I’m still a believer that big things are in store here in his second go-‘round on the PGA Tour. Salinda, on the other hand, hasn’t shown a ton after his tee shots, but proved in Mexico that if the rest of his game is decent, he can contend at this level. 

Texas Children’s Houston Open Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Davis Riley (+1100)

After winning last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, Riley went 17 straight starts with not only no other top-10s, but nothing else even inside the top-30. Something has clearly clicked, though, as he now owns top-10s in two of his last three, including a seventh place finish at the Valspar. The difference has clearly been his approach play, which ranked fourth last week and best in Sunday’s final round.

The only problem is that we’re not the only ones who have noticed – the oddsmakers have apparently caught wind of his improved play, as well. I’m not convinced I love this price, but I’m also not convinced it’s going to drift longer anytime soon, so I don’t mind striking while the proverbial irons are hot, especially at a place where he finished T-14 last year.

Aggressive: Jake Knapp (+1200)

I’m a big believer that professional golf is a cyclical game, with players riding the ebbs and flows of performance – or perhaps, as any bettor can attest, sometimes the breaks just go their way and sometimes they don’t. For some guys, we can see the momentum building to a crescendo. For others, there’s little hint that the roller coaster is about to turn back uphill. (Ahem, Viktor Hovland.)

I think Memorial Park is a good course for Knapp that just happened to catch him during more of a valley than a peak last year. Early in his rookie campaign, Knapp finished T-3 at Torrey Pines, then won a month later in Mexico and chased it with another top-five at PGA National the following week. By the time he got to Houston, he’d made the cut in six straight, but perhaps had bigger and better things on his mind, with a first Masters appearance waiting just a few weeks later.

He missed the cut at this one, however I still think it should suit him – and this time, we might be getting him back on that uptick. Granted, he MC’d last week, but Knapp finished top-25 in four straight before then. Like Greyserman, he owns a solid driver/putter combo, but also owns the iron game to supplement. This feels like a nice week to play his increasing floor. 

Texas Children’s Houston Open Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Aaron Rai (+110)

I’ll readily admit that even the conservative plays aren’t very conservative this week, so allow me to take the closest thing to a Free Bingo Square that I’ll use in this preview. After Scheffler and McIlroy, Rai ranks as the shortest number on this board – and while I don’t know if I necessarily agree with that (over Tony Finau, who’s gone 1-2 here the past two years, or Jason Day, who’s shown strong form recently), I do believe that Rai is the type of floor play that bankroll-builders should love. He checks all the boxes this week, ranking 23rd in SG: Off the Tee, finishing T-7 here last year, and with top-20s in each of his last three starts. I’m not willing to play him at 25/1 outright, but if you’re taking chances elsewhere on your card, Rai should offer some nice security in this market.

Aggressive: Andrew Novak (+300)

I’m just going to keep banging this drum until it either breaks or produces a hit song. After opening the year with top-20s in half of his first six starts, Novak has now gone four straight without one, last week’s T-42 at the Valspar being perhaps his most disappointing, as a final-round 75 dropped him from 11th place all the way down into a share of 42nd. I’m still a big believer in his game and think he should prosper at a place where he opened with 68 last year and closed with 67, though still only finished T-53. He needs to eliminate those untimely bogey trains, but Novak owns enough offensive firepower to contend in a tourney such as this one.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Rico Hoey (market not yet available)

I was hoping for a slightly longer number here, thinking maybe the oddsmakers would focus on last week’s MC as opposed to the three top-40s that preceded it. No such luck. That’s alright, though, because there’s still some value on Hoey in the floor markets, as he’s proven himself to be one of the game’s elite drivers of the golf ball. One season after leading the PGA Tour in Total Driving, he’s currently third. The putter has been, well, atrocious, as he ranks dead last by a good measure on the PGA Tour this season, but if he can somehow get that just up to field average, the rest of the game should cooperate.

Aggressive: Quade Cummins (market not yet available)

From Thompson to McGreevy to Riley to Hoey, I’ve already listed plenty of players above who were top-level collegians just a few years ago. Cummins might not be at the forefront of that list right now, but I’m a big believer that success at every previous level often portends success once these players get to the highest level, too. The first four-time All-America selection in University of Oklahoma history, Cummins owns top-40 results in four of his last six starts and while his usually strong tee game was replaced by a comparatively better approach game last week, I like the looks of everything from tee to green for this type of play.

Texas Children’s Houston Open First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Min Woo Lee (+4500)

As I often write, I’m looking for exposure to high-variance players in the FRL market. Consistency is for finishing position bets; I want massive upside here. That’s exactly what The Chef provides. Even though his Thursday scores haven’t been anything special this year, he is uber-long off the tee and ranks 11th in putting this season, which is exactly the type of combo I’m seeking.

Aggressive: Rickie Fowler (+8000) and Patrick Fishburn (+9000)

In six starts this season, Fowler has opened with sub-70 scores on four occasions, including a 64 at PGA National which would’ve led most other years. I still don’t quite trust him for four-round investments, but I do think good things are gradually happening, even in a non-linear type of timeline. And I’ll back that play up with just one more in the hopes of multiplying my chances of actually getting a FRL correct here in the preview.

Fishburn started his season with a share of sixth place at the Sony Open, but since then hasn’t done a whole lot, with five MCs in eight subsequent starts. He started getting things going in the right direction last week, though, with a very good third round in Tampa on his way to a T-28 result. He should have a nice skillset for this venue.