RSM Classic Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Welcome to the Last Chance Saloon, aka the RSM Classic, where PGA Tour pros who are on the bubble, their careers potentially hanging in the balance at the final event of the season, will at least have the cool vibes of Sea Island to help calm those frayed nerves throughout the week.

As far as dichotomies go, this might not rival the old Walt Disney World Golf Classic, where players would maddeningly lose their membership status while trying to avoid a photo op with Goofy, but it remains a fantastic contrast of a pressure-cooker event being contested in one of the most chill locales on the annual schedule.

The last two years have offered a couple of winners’ trends that previously weren’t the case at the 7,005-yard Seaside Course (which hosts three rounds for each player, including both weekend rounds) and the 7,160-yard Plantation Course.

The first is that we’ve seen a few big hitters triumph at what’s always been known as the precision players’ domain. Maverick McNealy averaged 302.5 yards per drive during last season, which culminated in his first career victory here, while Ludvig Aberg measured 317.1 for the year when he won. In the prior 10 years, only one player (Charles Howell III) averaged over 300 in the year he won and the average driving distance from winners was 293.7.

Now, I’m a big believer that this stat often gets misinterpreted. The difference between 293.7 and 302.5 might be 75 spots on the season-long distance ranking, but it’s less than a one-club differential on the course, which isn’t inconsequential, but is hardly substantial.

Even so, it’s at least worth noting that there’s a hint we shouldn’t simply favor the shorter, accurate players for our outright selections this week.

The other trend – and again, this one isn’t an umbrella pattern – is that the last two have been won by players who were safely inside any bubbles. It could be argued that the only reason Aberg and McNealy even played this event was to claim that first PGA Tour title and that’s exactly what they did. Perhaps not every winner in the previous decade was scratching and clawing to keep their card, but a handful of them were.

Maybe there’s some sense in identifying those players who don’t “need” a big week, but are simply playing in hopes of claiming that first win before the calendar turns over.

In fact, that’s the exact formula for my first outright selection this week.

RSM Classic Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Alex Smalley (+4000)

There’s a specific delineation between haves and have-nots this week, but it’s not the one we often see during the regular season, when elite-level players tee it up in tournaments featuring mostly players who are a few notches below such status. No, at this event, it’s the have-played against the have-not-played, with plenty of ultra-talented players waking up from an autumn-long slumber to tee it up one final time before the season is officially over. Unless you’ve got inside info on how the likes of Harris English (+2500), Brian Harman (+2800) and Chris Kirk (+3300) have been playing in their Sea Island Mafia games, you’re taking a chance on a player who might or might not be rusty instead of a player you know is in midseason form.

That recency bias is one reason why Rico Hoey (+3000), Thorbjorn Olesen (+3000) and Vince Whaley (+4000) have comparable pre-tournament prices to those who are much more accomplished – and yet, it’s impossible to ignore not only form, but competitive reps. That’s one reason I’m going with Smalley here, who will be making his sixth start of the fall schedule. Another is that his ceiling/floor range is greater than most – in other terms, when he plays well, he usually plays very well. When backing players for outrights, anything second place or lower is a losing ticket (unless you’re betting each-way), so I always like the idea of going after a guy with a higher ceiling.

In his last 14 starts, Smalley has seven missed cuts, but also has four finishes of 13th or better, including a pair of top-fives in his last three starts. That boom-or-bust performance level correlates to his results at the RSM, as well, where he was T-5 three years ago, but T-44 and MC in his last two. Is this a no-doubt-about-it type of outright play? Of course not. Could he miss the cut again this week? Absolutely. But the point is that his best stuff is good enough right now to win a tournament of this level, especially when so many of the bigger names are emerging from hibernation.

At 71st on the FedEx standings, he’s still got plenty to play for, knowing the top-60 will qualify for the first few signature events of 2026, but there shouldn’t be too much pressure on the shoulders of a player who’s already confident in his status for next season. That’s proven to be a winning strategy at this event over the past few years and it very well could pay off again. 

Aggressive: Jacob Bridgeman (+6600)

If one key ingredient to unlocking a winner is finding those who have been competing, the other is identifying those who were born on Bermuda greens. At 18th in the SG: Putting category this season, Bridgeman has established himself as one of the better rock-rollers on the PGA Tour, but the South Carolina native increases that baseline on his favored surface, as proven earlier this year at PGA National and Innisbook, where he finished top-three in each.

Again, this selection owns a lot of the same qualities as the Smalley pick, in that Bridgeman has his card locked up for next year, he’s been playing during the fall portion of the schedule and he’s shown a high ceiling when he’s on his game. Also like Smalley, this could easily flame out by Friday afternoon, as Bridgeman missed the cut in his lone previous RSM start last year. That said, I’m playing for upside and he’s proven to have a lofty one. If that putter gets hot on these greens, he certainly has winning potential here. 

RSM Classic Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Pierceson Coody (+750)

Last week on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio, I asked Coody if he knew which player was leading the SG: Off the Tee ranking this season, with the hint that Scottie Scheffler is second and Rory McIlroy is fourth. He didn’t know until I suggested that there was a reason I was asking *him* that question, but don’t fault him: He’d just played his 15th event of the season, so he was previously unranked in all statistical categories. In any case, if you’d like to know how to identify a future star purely from an analytical perspective, check out Coody’s profile, because he’s got just about everything we’re seeking. In addition to that driving prowess, he’s 18th in SG: Total, with approach and putting numbers that are just about average.

I’m going to take an educated guess that those numbers are going to quickly improve when he owns full status next year. He’s finished 31st or better in seven of his last 10 starts, including a pair of third-place results. The 25-year-old is brimming with confidence right now and while this pair of host courses might neutralize his driver as a weapon, I’m willing to bet on his overall game here. It’s not fair to compare him with Aberg, who won here two years ago, but I can certainly see some similarities in their trajectories and wouldn’t be shocked if Coody mirrors what the Swede did that week. 

Aggressive: Frankie Capan III (+3300)

There’s an art to “chasing” in sports betting, and if you’ve figured it out, please let me know. (Saying this as a guy who’s foolishly backed Clemson in just about every game this season, until I jumped off last week and watched the Tigers win as underdogs against Louisville.) I’ve often looked at professional golf as a roller-coaster; you want to catch a guy on the way up, rather than the way down, and only the best are able to ride those upturns for longer than everyone else.

All of that said, it seems Clemson-like foolish to back Capan after his long-awaited best finish of the year, a T-3 in Bermuda last week. The so-called law of averages suggests that his roller-coaster ride is about to be on the decline, but I just can’t help myself when assessing a player I liked perhaps more than any other coming off the Korn Ferry Tour a year ago. He certainly hasn’t flourished the way I’d thought he would, but the game is clearly coming around, as he also has a T-6 at the Sanderson Farms this fall. We’re getting a massive number here for a top-five and if you’d prefer something in the top-20/40 range, I’d totally understand, but I’m trying to win back those Dabo losses and this feels like an intriguing place to chase Capan’s most recent performance. 

RSM Classic Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Denny McCarthy (+300)

Like Smalley and Bridgeman, McCarthy also fits the recent winner trend of a player who’s really only here in hopes of winning for the first time. As someone who’s bet Denny outright more than I’d like to admit, there were only a couple of things keeping me from doing it again here. The first is that he hasn’t played since way back at the BMW Championship in mid-August. And the second is that his outright price (+2800) is way too short for a guy who hasn’t played competitively in three months. Ultimately, I landed on him as a top-10 play, as he fits the profile and has played well on a pair of courses which suit his game, posting three top-10s in his last six starts here and a T-25 last year.

Aggressive: Bud Cauley (+400) and Eric Cole (+450)

I went back-and-forth on these two before deciding, hey, it’s the last tournament of the season and you deserve an extra pick. They say success is the product of indecision, right? OK, maybe not. Anyway, both of these guys have had their ups and downs this season, but there’s reason to like each at this venue. Cauley has the higher floor and while he’s only played once in the fall and only has one career top-10 here, he does have three other finishes inside the top-25 and should be a solid course fit. Cole has been playing recently, because, well, Cole always plays. He owns a pair of top-10s in his last four starts and was T-3 and T-15 here the past two years.

RSM Classic Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Chris Kirk (+160)

When someone finds out what I do for a living, they invariably reply with some semblance of this question: “People can’t actually consistently win money betting golf, can they?” My answer is yes, though with some caveats. If you’re simply firing longshot outrights each week, then your ROI will more greatly resemble a volatile stock than a mutual fund. If you’re patient enough, though, if you stick to shorter prices with less risk and some proven commodities, there can absolutely be a winning formula. This selection is a great example of that method.

You’re not going to sit around Sunday afternoon bragging to your buddies at the 19th hole that you played a top-20 on Kirk, but you’ll probably be happier with the bottom line than with more aggressive plays. The 2013 champion at Sea Island finished the regular season with five top-15 finishes in his last seven starts. He hasn’t played since then, but he does own a half-dozen top-20s at this event. It’s not a sexy play; it’s not one that’ll get anyone too excited. I get that. But these are called “conservative” plays for a reason. If you’re that type of bettor, there’s nothing wrong with a short-price win. Kirk makes a ton of sense in this market. 

Aggressive: Carson Young (+400)

If this were 10-15 years ago, in the days before sports gaming was legal in the U.S., Young would’ve been the type of player only known to diehard golf fans – the guy you’d always think was Cameron Young before finally figuring it out. I’ve often argued that legalized betting has made us smarter fans. The dots are easy to connect: If you’re putting your hard-earned money into an investment, you’re going to do some research; once you do that research, you gain more knowledge about the subject; and once you’ve made the investment, you’re going to be fully engaged in seeing it to fruition.

As such, Young is one of dozens of players who’s firmly on the radar of folks like us, who are making these investments on a regular basis. As such, you might already know that he was T-6 a few weeks ago at the World Wide Technology Championship and that he’s much more of an accuracy guy than a power player and that he tends to play some of his best golf on Bermuda greens. I think it’s still in question what kind of ceiling he owns at the highest level, but he certainly has a decent floor – and a nice number for a top-20 this week. 

RSM Classic Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Doc Redman (+210)

Once upon a time – like, three or four years ago – I was convinced that Redman, who won the 2017 U.S. Amateur, was a PGA Tour star in the making. That was right before he wound up getting demoted to the Korn Ferry Tour. I’m less convinced of that now, especially after he finished a dismal 138th on the KFT points list this year, but much like Capan, he’s shown off some of that potential here in the autumn months. Redman was T-9 at the Sanderson Farms and T-20 at the Bank of Utah in his last two starts. Playing on a sponsor’s exemption this week, it’s still hard to believe a poor KFT season can result in a strong PGA Tour fall, but I like the idea of playing the hot hand, especially one in whom I’ve long believed.

Aggressive: Mason Howell (+275)

In last week’s Bermuda preview, I listed Blades Brown for an aggressive outright play and he at least showed us a little something with a T-34 finish. If an 18-year-old like Brown is old news for you already, then check out Howell, the reigning U.S. Amateur champion, who’s a full five weeks younger. If we’ve learned anything from Nick Dunlap and Luke Clanton and Jackson Koivun over the last few years, it’s that not only are amateur more ready to play at the highest level than perhaps ever before, but without the weight of having to play for a living, they can go out and have fun posting some tremendous results. By all accounts, Howell is the next in a long line of can’t-miss prospects. I’ll conservatively offer him up for a top-40 here, but if you like the upside, it’s worth an escalator play all the way up to a top-five.