Players Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

I’ve been previewing The Players Championship for more than two decades, which isn’t a humblebrag, but a consistent reminder of the annual headache in trying to handicap what I’ve long believed is the most difficult PGA Tour event for such prognostication.

The flagship event at TPC Sawgrass has often featured the best field of the year, and while I’d insist that’s changed since the LIV Golf exodus, it’s still the best of the best who remain, competing on a perpetually democratic golf course which suits any type of player, as long as he plays to his specific strengths.

In recent years, my introductory analysis for these previews has always spotlighted the recollection that this winners’ list includes superstars (Tiger Woods) and journeymen (Craig Perks), veterans (K.J. Choi) and rookies (Si Woo Kim), long hitters (Jason Day) and short knockers (Fred Funk), reinforcing the ol’ “anybody’s ballgame” narrative.

All of this remains true, of course, but a different kind of trend has formed here lately.

Scottie Scheffler has claimed each of the past two titles, preceded by Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. For the uninitiated, those aren’t just pretty good players; they’re the cream of the crop. In fact, only Smith’s 30/1 pre-tourney number has been longer than 18/1, which suggests the season’s most equitable tournament might be more of a closed shop than we (read: I) might’ve realized.

This trend just happens to coincide with the move from May back to March, on a softer Sawgrass, which means length off the tee is a greater advantage, as is trajectory into the greens and more birdies/lower scores, each of which often offers a bigger edge to the better players.

Patterns are meant to be broken and if there’s been a major theme throughout the year’s first two-and-a-half months, it’s exactly that, from Thomas Detry parlaying a career’s-worth of top-threes into a runaway victory to the shortest hitter on the PGA Tour in Brian Campbell winning on a driver-heavy course to Joe Highsmith prevailing after making the cut on the number to Russell Henley finally claiming a big-time title.

Even so, I’m not searching too far down the board for my favorite outrights.

With Scheffler outwardly frustrated by his recent performance, McIlroy continually tinkering with clubs and Xander Schauffele still bouncing back from injury, I’ll start my selections with a few players who make a ton of sense this week.

Players Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Collin Morikawa (+1400)

There are two ways to view Morikawa’s final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Here’s one: He owned the 54-hole lead, made a miraculous birdie on the first hole, led for most of the day and lost, which should be as heartbreaking a defeat as we’ve witnessed this year. Here’s the other: He ball-struck his way to the lead, then did the Tiger thing, essentially giving all other contenders the stiff-arm throughout the final round, until a timely (and some might say lucky) chip-in eagle somehow left him on the wrong side of things.

In the moment, it might be difficult for Morikawa – who’s been frustrated without a victory for the past year-and-a-half – to see it as the latter instead of the former, but I’m convinced that before Thursday’s opening round this week, he’ll begin to understand that he really didn’t lose the tournament as much as it was snatched away from him and that his tee-to-green game remains at a very elite level right now. He currently leads in that category, as he does in SG: Total, which remains the greatest barometer of performance. Of course, performance doesn’t always equal results, as Russell Henley himself can attest, but it does offer hope that the player who is playing the best golf can also win a tournament. 

While Morikawa’s record at The Players is curiously below his standards – a share of 13th place two years ago remains his lone top-40 in four tries – we need only look back at last year for a connection between Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, when Scottie Scheffler and Wyndham Clark went 1-2 at each. It could be argued that they were simply playing better golf than everyone else during that fortnight, but that’s exactly the point: So, too, is Morikawa right now. 

(And as an added bonus: BetMGM is starting a Second Chance promotion this week, which means if you bet a player outright before the tournament starts and he finishes runner-up, you’ll get your entire stake back in cash. With four second-place results since his last win, Morikawa could at least lead to a refund if he doesn’t finally prevail at this one.)

Aggressive: Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

I’ll be the first to admit that my “aggressive” outright hardly counts as aggressive, but that simply correlates to the quality of player that’s been winning this golf tournament over the past handful of years. If you’d prefer an outright with a bigger number, I think there’s value/potential in this market on Maverick McNealy (+6600), Will Zalatoris (+6600), Akshay Bhatia (+10000) and Harris English (+15000).

Matsuyama offers a nice convergence of course history and recent form. Though he hasn’t contended since winning the season-opening The Sentry, he owns four top-25s in his past six starts. At this tournament, he’s posted seven top-25s in nine career starts, with four top-10s, including each of the last two years. Perhaps more impressively, he’s gained strokes off the tee every single time and with his irons all but once. While some might downplay the idea of a specific venue suiting a player’s eye, this one clearly plays to Matsuyama’s liking.

And last but not least, we can take a little stroll down Narrative Street for this one, as well. Five years ago, one day before the world was shut down due to COVID-19, he posted a 9-under 63 to claim a two-shot lead at this event, only to see it canceled. I’m not suggesting karma wins golf tournaments, or even that he would’ve parlayed the FRL into a victory, but the Golf Gods do tend to work in mysterious ways and paying him back a half-decade later would only serve as the latest example.

Players Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Daniel Berger (+850)

I’m constantly fascinated with how different players approach not only each course, and not only every hole, but each specific shot. We’ve forever heard about the green-light/red-light system which encourages aggressive play on some shots, but suggests conservative play on others. More and more in recent years, I’ve had players describe certain situations as taking an aggressive line off the tee, yet a conservative approach into the green, or vice versa, all of which hints that most recreational golfers could use fewer swing lessons and more course management tips.

Anyway, I often view my wagers in much the same way. If my outrights are a bit opportunistic, I’ll be more cautious with the finishing position bets, but when the outrights are among the shorter selections – as listed above – I’d prefer to take a few more chances with my other plays. It wouldn’t shock me if the numbers are flipped on my pair of top-fives by the time they tee it up Thursday, but as it stands right now Berger owns the shorter price. He owns a pair of runner-up finishes in his last eight starts and despite faltering as my fave outright at the Cognizant Classic two weeks ago, parlaying second place through 36 holes into a T-25 result, I believe he’s ready to pop once again. 

He’s gained strokes off the tee, on approach shots, around the greens and putting in each of his last four starts. That’s right, he’s gone 4-for-4 in four straight, while hitting it longer than ever before and maintaining his usual accuracy. On a course where an all-around game is needed to find success, he’s showing it lately. And while he hasn’t competed at The Players in three years, he went 9th-13th in his two most recent appearances, suggesting this one suits him when he’s at his best.

Aggressive: Maverick McNealy (+1000)

For a player who’s been performing at a consistently high level for a while now, last week served as a massive surprise. McNealy opened with 73, which was just fine in difficult conditions, but a second-round 80 on a scoreable day, one which featured two doubles and eight bogeys, left him well below the cut line.

I’m willing to write that off as a one-day outlier while getting a price that looks a bit inflated for a guy who’s currently 15th in the OWGR and 12th on the FedEx Cup points list. There remain questions as to whether the California native can play his best golf in these Florida-based tournaments, but a T-9 at last year’s Players has me more confident that we’ll see the final-round Mav from the Genesis Invitational, when he shot 64, than the second-round Mav from the API.

Players Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Denny McCarthy (+600)

I’ve often written about how if you like a player and he doesn’t cash for you, don’t immediately toss his name into the “fade” pile, since there’s a reason you liked him in the first place. That said, I can’t help but feel some enmity toward Tommy Fleetwood, last week’s favorite outright at the API – not because he didn’t win, but because I had him in a top-10 parlay with Karl Vilips, Daniel Van Tonder and Ernie Els, each of whom did their job, while Fleetwood bogeyed the final hole to finish in a share of 11th place and render that ticket worthless. It was enough to keep me from listing Fleetwood as my top-10 here, even though I do like him to finish one notch better than last week, as I’ll pivot to McCarthy instead.

We often say of the game’s best ball-strikers that they don’t need to also be the best putter in a given tournament, only something above average in order to contend. Henley, Morikawa and Corey Conners served as perfect examples of this at Bay Hill. McCarthy is the rare opposite. Widely known as one of the game’s best putters, his consistency on the greens means he doesn’t need to also be the best ball-striker in a given event, just something better than field average. 

Well, that’s exactly what’s been happening lately. He’s gained strokes with his irons in four straight and five of his last six – and largely against high-level players, as that includes four signature events. We haven’t seen a player make The Players his first career win since Tim Clark in 2010, but if it’s not Fleetwood, then McCarthy might be the next-most obvious choice. His outright number of 66/1 feels a little too short for my interest, but he makes sense for a top-10 play.

Aggressive: Ben Griffin (+700)

I’ll often remind bettors that when playing longshots for an outright, we’re trying to hit the ceiling, not the floor, meaning I’d rather take a chance on a volatile player with upside over one with above-average consistency. On a lesser scale, the same can be said for finishing position bets. Griffin isn’t your no-doubt-about-it top-10 play, but from what he’s shown recently, when he plays well, he plays really well.

In his last 11 starts, only five have yielded results inside the top-35, but four of those five have been inside the top-10. In fact, even going back to his Korn Ferry days, he was a hit-or-miss type. In 2022, his last year on the developmental circuit, he posted three runner-up finishes in 22 starts, but also missed the cut on 10 occasions. Just as professional golfers seek consistency, but are better rewarded by brief moments of brilliance, so are bettors. We know what we’re getting into here. Again, this gives me some hope at a nice plus-money price.

Players Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Si Woo Kim (+200)

For years, the narrative around Si Woo was that he was the most all-or-nothing player on the PGA Tour – at least until Cameron Champ came around. He won the Wyndham Championship, then followed with a victory at The Players when he was just 21 years old, all while missing plenty of cuts before and after. There were plenty of observers who presumed he was on the path to superstardom at that point and while he’s hardly been a bust, it hasn’t quite happened yet. At 29, he now owns four career victories, but it’s his narrative reversal which is so curious.

Over the last few seasons, he’s transformed from a ceiling play into a floor play. Last year, he posted 13 top-25s in 25 starts; right now he’s on a four-event top-25 streak that doesn’t include a result better than 12th. As I wrote above, there are times to play ceilings and times to play floors. I’ve got enough ceiling plays listed above, I’ll go with a guy here who’s become a floor play.

Aggressive: Michael Kim (+250)

Prior to the Masters Tournament each year, we’ll say that a player needs to bring his game to Augusta, that he won’t find it on the drive down Magnolia Lane. The same is often true at The Players. If, as mentioned in the intro above, any type of player can prosper at TPC Sawgrass, the secret formula shouldn’t really be a secret – back those who have shown form so far this season. Perhaps no player is playing above his baseline more than Kim, whose descriptions of Tour life behind the scenes has made him a social media superstar and whose performance level has given all those new fans something to cheer about.

He’s gained strokes with his irons, wedges and putter in each of his last five starts, finishing 13th or better every single time. Plenty of credit should be given to swing coach Sean Foley and short game guru Joe Mayo, but Kim’s journey from PGA Tour winner in 2018 to the depths of the professional game and back is a truly remarkable feat. We should expect the ride to slow down at some point, if not fully stop, but I’ll keep riding for now, as he’s playing the best golf of his life.

Players Championship Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Doug Ghim (market not yet available)

It doesn’t take an analytics expert to figure out Ghim’s game from a statistical perspective. His driver and wedges are often right around field average, but it’s the irons and putter which really define him. This notion has been exacerbated even more recently, as he’s gained massively on approach shots in each of his last five starts, while losing almost as massively on the greens.

If there’s reason for optimism, it’s that he was better than field average with the flatstick in both last year’s T-16 and 2022’s share of sixth. So much about putting is confidence and mentality, which should help him once again this week.

Aggressive: Andrew Novak (market not yet available)

Take just about everything I wrote on Michael Kim above and apply it on a smaller scale to Novak, who’s proving that he belongs. Already with four top-40s in eight starts this year – and three of 13th or better – there should be value in this week’s top-40 price on a guy who looks more comfortable amongst the big-name players on a seemingly weekly basis.

Players Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Russell Henley (+4000) and Sepp Straka (+5000)

My official statement here is that I couldn’t quite decide between last week’s winner and a man who leapt into the top-five, so I decided to take ‘em both. I refuse to admit that it’s because my weekly FRL plays have so infrequently cashed that I’m trying to double my chances, but if you’d like to make this read, well, you might not be completely wrong. Even after his API victory, Henley is still a player I’m skittish to back for four-round investments, especially at his current price, but he’s proven to be a guy who can step on the gas pedal on Thursdays. Straka, meanwhile, opened with a 76 last week, then stepped on the proverbial gas pedal and cruised his way up the leaderboard, perhaps giving him plenty of momentum heading into this one.

J.J. Spaun (+8000)

Much like Henley, I have a tough time backing Spaun for four-round plays, but much like Michael Kim and Novak, I like a guy playing above his baseline to stay hot this week. Already this year, he’s twice opened with 64 and once with 66, so he’s shown a propensity for coming out of the gates strong.