Open Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

There was a time – oh, let’s say about a decade-and-a-half ago – when I recall watching a certain golf-related television program during which pundits were making predictions on career major championship totals for some of the game’s best players.

Tiger Woods was forecasted for a number well into the twenties. An upstart kid named Rory McIlroy was believed to have the potential to get into double-digits. Dustin Johnson? Six. Jason Day? Five. Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia? Certainly more than one for each of them.

All these years later, that segment left an impression because the math didn’t come close to adding up.

That’s the funny thing about majors, though – or the not-so-funny thing, if you’re a guy who’s trying to win ‘em – is there’s only four each year and they’re really tough to claim.

On the eve of this year’s fourth and final major, the Open Championship, it feels like we’ve been offered a perfect example of just how tough it is.

The year’s first two majors were won by inarguably the world’s two best players in Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. The third was captured by J.J. Spaun, a player much further down that list. All of which means whether you’re Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa or Justin Thomas seeking a third, or Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay or Viktor Hovland seeking a first, you’ve somewhat suddenly got only one more chance before waiting nine months to do it all over again starting in April.

Let’s dive into this one, as the week began at Royal Portrush with an early-afternoon weather warning and evacuation of the golf course during Monday’s practice round. As she often is, Mother Nature should be a main topic of discussion throughout the tournament, as it appears there might be more rain than wind, all of it potentially flipping on a moment’s notice, with conditions playing at least some role in determining which players will contend for this title.

What that should tell us is that an already leveled playing field could become even more so.

Look, as a guy who pores over analytics on a weekly basis, maybe I’m not supposed to admit such a thing, but luck plays a part in deciding every golf tournament, and it takes on a bigger role at an Open Championship on a links course.

Here’s a hypothetical: At some point, two players in the same group are going to go for a par-5 in two. One player is going to watch his ball roll around a greenside pot bunker, take a left-hand turn and leave him with a makeable eagle putt. The other is going to see his ball disappear into the worst spot of that bunker, leaving the potential for double-bogey. We could easily witness a four-shot swing from two players who literally hit almost the same exact shot.

None of which means that a favorite like Scheffler or McIlroy can’t – or won’t – win this golf tournament, but the nature of the beast is that it opens itself up to a greater pool of contenders when scoring becomes about more than simply which player hits it best from tee to green and makes the most putts.

With that in mind, let’s get to the selections, as I’m traversing at least slightly past the favorites in search of some value.

Open Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Viktor Hovland (+2800)

I’ve often contended that there’s a difference between picking a winner and building an outright betting card – and this week’s major offers a great example of what this means. Let’s take McIlroy, for instance. Do I believe he can win the Claret Jug this week? Absolutely. At a price of +700, however, do I believe that he’s over four times more likely than Hovland to win it? Nope. Same goes for Rahm. Do I think he’s got a real shot to claim a third leg of the career slam this week? Sure do. Again, though, at +1200, do I think he’s more than twice as likely to win this one than Hovland? The answer is another no.

If every player had the exact same odds – and this goes for One and Done pools, if you’re not concerned about a leverage play over your competition – my selection to win might be different. But betting is all about playing the percentages and attempting to find the odds which make the most sense.

For me, that means backing Hovland for a second straight week. I won’t suggest we were robbed nor hard-luck losers at the Genesis Scottish Open, considering he finished seven shots off the pace, but with three scores of 67 or better, it’s easy to see where this play took a wrong turn. After opening with a 66, Hovland started his second round with a double-bogey, followed by a bogey, later adding two more bogeys to shoot 72 on a day when the field scoring average was sub-70.

The point is, his game is where he needs it to be in order to contend for another major, as he’s claimed top-five finishes in one-third of the last dozen of ‘em. His general attitude is to be more concerned/disappointed with his own game than weather conditions or course variance or any of the other variables we’ll have this week, so I believe he ranks fairly high on the list for intangibles, as well. 

Aggressive: Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)

I’m going to start this section not with the reasons I like Fitzpatrick here, but with the other candidates who still might make my overall card. Justin Thomas (+5000) feels like a no-brainer at this number, especially coming off a final-round 65 on Sunday during which he ranked second in tee-to-green stats. Patrick Cantlay (+5000) might be hard-pressed to get himself into a winner’s circle in enemy territory, but the price is at least intriguing. Patrick Reed (+6600) holds plenty of value at his odds; same goes for Jason Day (+8000), who was the last name crossed out here at double the price of Fitzpatrick, but still holds plenty of interest.

The play here, though, is Fitz – and yes, that’s based largely on his ability to find something after months of struggling. As I wrote in listing him for a top-10 last week (where he eventually finished T-4), the Englishman didn’t have a top-20 in his first 10 starts of the year, but now owns four in his last six and they keep getting better. Form is hardly the only reason to back him here, of course. Fitzpatrick is a noted connoisseur of difficult scoring conditions on tough courses. Royal Portrush should check every box.

Despite a winning score of 15-under the last time The Open was held here in 2019, no other player reached double-digits under par and the top-five on the final board each posted a total of 71 or worse in the waterlogged final round. He was T-20 that week, but he’s a more complete player now and very capable of adding a second major title to his resume. 

Open Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Rory McIlroy (+140) and Jon Rahm (+230)

Yes, I get how this seems contradictory after I wrote in the intro about variance in this event, but during weeks where I’m diving a bit deeper for my outright plays, I like my top-level finishing position bets to be of a more conservative nature. Again, it’s the intangibles which make these two so intriguing. Rory grabbed headlines last week by throwing shade at PGA Frisco, but we shouldn’t overlook the main point of what he was saying about how courses matter to him.

“If venues in golf matter to you, it maybe puts a little bit more pressure on you,” he said. “So yeah, I would love to win an Open at Portrush, absolutely. I would love to win an Open at St Andrews. I would love to win a U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. I’d love to win a PGA at PGA Frisco — no. But it’s like there’s venues in the game that just mean a little bit more.” For a player who’s accomplished everything he’s wanted to, capturing the career slam just a few months ago, it’s fair to question when, where and why he’ll be motivated.

Winning at Portrush, in his home country, certainly fits. As for Rahm, even in the aftermath of his 2023 Masters victory, he continuously hinted that his own personal white whale was a Claret Jug, that perhaps winning the world’s oldest golf tournament might mean a bit more to him than even claiming a green jacket. He’s the lone player with three top-10s in this event over the past four years and finished one spot out of that position when the tournament was held at Portrush six years ago. Of course, none of this needs to be an either/or situation between McIlroy and Rahm. If you’re allergic to such short numbers in an aggressive placement bet, a top-five parlay at their current prices yields odds of +692, which might make these two plays a lot more palatable. 

Aggressive: Jason Day (+1200)

A missed cut in his most recent start at the John Deere Classic, a failure to play the Genesis Scottish Open, and a results table which shows only five tournament appearances since the Masters are all reasons to be a bit hesitant on Day, but I can’t get past a few of the positives. The first is that this number seems too long in comparison with others in the same range. I get that Ben Griffin and J.J. Spaun have consistently played at a higher level this year, but they simply shouldn’t have shorter odds than a guy with seven top-30s and a pair of top-fives in his Open Championship career.

Speaking of consistency, Aaron Rai and Corey Conners are both purveyors of this trait, but as much as I like them for floor plays, there’s no way I’d play either for a ceiling over Day at the same price. The second positive is that Day tends to play some of his best golf when he has little to no momentum entering that specific week. To wit: He owns four top-10 finishes this season. In his most recent starts before each of those results, he went T-40, T-50, T-27 and T-23. That MC at the Deere will scare off plenty of bettors – especially because his tee-to-green play was so poor – but there’s little in his history that suggests it will linger a few weeks later. 

Open Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Tommy Fleetwood (+225)

This one came down to Fleetwood or Tyrrell Hatton, polar opposites in on-course dispositions, though similar when it comes to results and price. Over the past decade, Fleetwood owns eight top-10s at majors, seven top-5s and three top-3s, however nothing better than T-16 in his last six starts. Hatton has seven top-10s during that time, but only two top-5s and no top-3s, but did contend at Oakmont last month, finishing T-4. In the end, it came down to trusting Fleetwood’s floor a little bit more, while trusting his ability to keep his cool a lot more.

Last week’s T-34 in Scotland was just his fourth result outside the top-25 in his last 25 global starts. Based on how he lost the Travelers Championship a few weeks ago, I still can’t trust Fleetwood to win a tournament, especially at his current number of 25/1, but I do expect the 2019 runner-up to be up there again at Portrush. 

Aggressive: Justin Rose (+400) and Adam Scott (+500)

The year is 2013. A meteor explodes over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk, the largest tornado ever recorded hits El Reno and a runaway train carrying crude oil derails in Lac Megantic, Quebec. (Thanks, Wikipedia!) Ah, good times. Dig a little deeper and you’ll recall that this was also the year that a couple of long-time golf stars in their primes each finally earned a major championship victory.

Rose and Scott were born two weeks apart in the summer of 1980 and their careers have largely paralleled – massive stars with not only talent but longevity, who earned the greatest moments of their respective careers a dozen years ago, Rose at Merion and Scott at Augusta National. The former might contend that his Olympic gold medal ranks right up there, as well, and it should, but the point remains that at an age where most stars start seeing a drop-off – Scott turns 45 this Wednesday, Rose turns that age two Wednesdays from now – each continues to perform at a level that is good enough to contend on any given week. In fact, it was Rose who nearly kept McIlroy from winning the green jacket, forcing a playoff three months ago, while Scott played in the final pairing on Sunday at Oakmont.

Last week, Rose finished solo sixth, while Scott was T-17 and it’s easy to see at least one, if not both, back on the board this week. If you prefer to more cautiously play them for top-20s instead of top-10s – a consideration I originally made – don’t be afraid to parlay it to a number north of 12/1. 

Open Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Harry Hall (+300)

Golf betting is often fraught with recency bias, as our short memories collectively want to pounce on whatever trend or pattern has just taken place. Case in point: One of the biggest questions for this one is bound to be, “Who can be this week’s Chris Gotterup?” The intonation is easy to decipher. Essentially, we’re asking which player who’s been playing some underrated golf can topple all the stars at Portrush, much as last week’s winner did at the Renaissance Club. My answer to this one is Hall, whose hot start petered out on the weekend, but still led to a seventh straight top-25 result. One of the game’s best putters has seen a nice uptick in his iron play over this recent stretch, which serves as a nice little combo, especially on a course such as Portrush, which could potentially neutralize any advantage some have off the tee.

Aggressive: Marco Penge (+350)

If I have one regret in last week’s prognostications, it’s not failing to back Gotterup, whom I’ve listed for outright plays a few times in the past couple of months, but admittedly didn’t consider on foreign soil. Instead, it’s giving Penge a tangential mention in the preview without backing him, despite the fact that I’ve been playing him in DP World events and talking about his potential as much as I have anyone lately. It honestly all started as a bit of fun and games.

The 27-year-old Englishman served a two-month suspension from the DP World Tour for betting on golf tournaments (not on himself and not those in which he played), making him somewhat of a cult hero for those who like a little action themselves. By his seventh start of the season, Penge was a winner. A few weeks later, he finished top-30 at the PGA Championship, impressing observers with his prodigious length off the tee at Quail Hollow.

And he hasn’t finished outside the top-30 since, claiming a share of runner-up honors in Scotland last week. His stock is rising by the minute and his price is getting shorter, so pick your favorite finishing position play and stick with the hot hand this week. As for his long-term potential, well, he’s on track to earn a PGA Tour card at year’s end and for as well as he’s played on the DP World circuit this season, his game might translate even better to the bigger ballparks of the U.S. tour. 

Open Championship Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Tom McKibbin (+130)

From the golf fan perspective, there are still plenty of reasons to bemoan the fractured state of professional golf, with PGA Tour and LIV Golf stars now only competing in the same events four times each year. As a golf bettor, this separation has been difficult, if only because LIV results so rarely portend what these players might do at major championships. Sure, Brooks Koepka once parlayed a LIV victory into a runner-up Masters finish the next week and a PGA Championship win the next month. And yes, Bryson DeChambeau won his third career LIV title just a few weeks before finishing runner-up at this year’s PGA Championship.

Those instances, though, are few and far between. What it takes is often a giant leap of faith to largely ignore LIV performance and simply choose a player from that tour based on course fit or even an educated hunch. All of that said, we’re getting McKibbin fresh off a pair of top-fives and heading back to his home country, where most of the spotlight will be shining on McIlroy, leaving the 22-year-old at a massive number (+12500 outright) in very familiar surroundings. I’ll list him for a top-40 play here, but absolutely love the idea of a McKibbin ladder this week, meaning we back up those top-40 tickets with some top-20s, top-10s and maybe even top-fives, as well. 

Aggressive: Kristoffer Reitan (+210), Laurie Canter (+180), and Jesper Svensson (+210)

In last week’s Genesis Scottish Open preview, I wrote about the need to know your DP World Tour regulars, because they were going to factor into the wagering, at least for placement bets. I listed three such players for top-40s and two of ‘em cashed – Reitan and Canter. I’ll go back to those guys for another top-40 ticket this week, replacing Francesco Laporta (who finished T-50 and cashed Top Italian honors) with Svensson, who missed the top-40 by one stroke. This market isn’t as “sexy” as others, which leads to some bettors simply glossing over top-40s each week, but with the value on some Europeans, don’t overlook these plays at this one.

Open Championship First-Round Leader Bets

Conservative: Sepp Straka (+5000)

Following last week’s seventh-place finish, Straka now owns a half-dozen top-10s this season and while this hasn’t always been the case, his best results usually start with a strong opening round. During a T-5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he started with a 77 before posting three rounds in the 60s and during a solo third at the Memorial Tournament, he opened with a 74, but those are also two of the toughest courses we’ll see all year. In his four other top-10s, Straka owns a first-round scoring average of 64.25, with nothing worse than 65. He’s also a strong poor-weather player – a mudder, if you will – who should thrive in relation to the competition if the conditions are as ugly as some believe they might be.

Aggressive: Ryan Fox (+6600)

There are only a half-dozen players with multiple victories on the PGA Tour this season and I’ve targeted two of them for FRL plays this week, in hopes that previous success leads to more of it here. Fox is another player who could fare better the soggier it is on Thursday. He ranks 19th in R1 scoring average this season and owns an average of 67.88 in his last eight openers. I’ll readily admit that the FRL market hasn’t been a hot one for us here in the weekly previews this year, but targeting high-performance players in the mid-tier might lead to bigger and better results.