Men’s Olympic Golf Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

In advance of golf returning to the Olympic Games in 2016, I once took a trip to the site of the sport’s most recent previous inclusion, which included some wild tales about the gold-medal winner.

It happened back in 1904, at Glen Echo Country Club just outside of St. Louis. No, we don’t know the golf odds for that competition, but it’s safe to say that a longshot persevered.

George S. Lyon was a 46-year-old Canadian who worked as an insurance salesman, endured a chronic hay fever allergy, was a record-holder in the pole vault and hadn’t taken up golf until his late-30s. In the championship match – that’s right, it concluded with match play back then – Lyon defeated H. Chandler Egan, the reigning U.S. Amateur champion.

When he was called to the podium to receive his award, the noted jokester stood up, turned himself upside-down, and walked on his hands the entire way.

“I am not foolish enough to think that I am the best player in the world,” he later said after defeating a field that didn’t include many of them, “but I am satisfied that I am not the worst.”

Perhaps it was neither Lyon’s pedigree, nor the lack of big-name competitors which kept golf from returning to the Olympics for 112 years, but in the first two editions of the modern era, we’ve yet to witness a Lyon-esque longshot claim gold.

In 2016, it was Justin Rose at 12/1 odds; five years later, it was Xander Schauffele at 9/1.

This week, 60 players will once again compete in the men’s event, a 72-hole, stroke-play, Thursday-to-Sunday affair that will look very much like most other golf tournaments on the annual calendar.

Each of them is an accomplished player of some repute – no insurance salesmen this time around – but the nature of the beast suggests a field which runs the spectrum from American major champions Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler to the likes of Phachara Khongwatmai (Thailand), Tapio Pulkkanen (Finland) and Joel Girrbach (Switzerland).

Unlike each of the two previous editions of the Olympic Games, we should have a decent sense of the type of player we’re seeking this week.

Not only does Le Golf National in Paris host the Open de France each year, it famously served as the Ryder Cup venue in 2018, when a group of fairway-finders on the home team easily defeated the big-hitting visitors. There’s little doubt this theme will continue, as we should seek accurate ball-strikers over bombers at this one.

That’s where I’ll start my selections, beginning with an American who isn’t one of the two favorites.

Olympic Golf Gold Medal Picks

Conservative: Collin Morikawa (+1100)

Much of the pre-tournament focus will be on Scheffler (+400) and Schauffele (+550), but it’s another player in the red, white and blue who’s been trending toward a momentous victory throughout the summer. In his last 10 starts, Morikawa hasn’t finished worse than 16th place, gaining strokes off the tee every single time, with his irons on nine of those occasions and his wedges and putter in eight.

As longtime observers of his game already understand and the stats continue to show, the only setback in his game is a lack of power in relation to other elite-level stars, but that should hardly play a factor at this week’s host venue. In fact, by week’s end we might suggest that there isn’t a world-class course more suited for Morikawa’s skillset than this one.

The combination of that fit and his recent form, in addition to him remaining hungry during a (somehow) winless campaign, plus a price not much shorter than he owned at a few major championships, should all lead to lead to this being a popular play amongst those near the top of this week’s board.

Aggressive: Alex Noren (+3300)

Granted, it was six years ago, but Noren has already enjoyed his fair share of spoils at Le Golf National. He won the Open de France that year in tough conditions, posting a score of just 7-under for four rounds, then followed with a 2-1-0 record two months later at the Ryder Cup, defeating Bryson DeChambeau in a singles match which didn’t have any real impact on the overall result, but did serve to epitomize the Europeans’ tact over the Americans’ brawn. 

Despite being a top-12 player in the world ranking at that point, it can be argued that the 42-year-old Noren is currently playing some of the best golf of his career, with 11 top-25 finishes in his last 14 starts. That hasn’t yet resulted in many title contentions – those 11 top-25s include just a single top-five – but his consistency and prior success on this course should leave him as a Morikawa-lite type of play. I like a small wager on him to win gold, but don’t be afraid to back it up with a play for silver or bronze, as well.

Olympic Golf Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Tom Kim (+400)

There are two common themes throughout my selections this week. The first, as you’ve already seen, is course fit; this is the perfect event to choose some elite players who only lack distance amongst the world’s best. The second is momentum.

Specifically, I want to target those who are in form, yet haven’t crossed over into the winner’s circle yet this year. Kim certainly fits this idea, as he owns a playoff loss at the Travelers Championship and T-4 at the RBC Canadian Open among his last seven starts. For a young player, his game travels remarkably well.

Aggressive: Corey Conners (+450)

There’s no way to measure certain intangibles, but I do believe that how much a player wants to win a medal will have a direct correlation to his performance. That might sound like naïve analysis, but get each of these guys on some truth serum, and you’d find that some rate this possibility as level with specific major championships, while others see it as simply a quirky interlude before heading back to the day job. There’s no right or wrong answer; however, I do think Conners will take a little extra pride into this week. 

These are important times for Canadian golf, with his fellow Olympian Nick Taylor winning their national championship last summer and the Presidents Cup in Montreal later this year. In a growing group of talented pros, Conners is probably the best of the bunch – one of the game’s best ball-strikers who struggles on the greens. 

Those struggles, though, have dissipated recently, as he’s gained strokes on the greens in four of his last six; unsurprisingly, none of those have resulted in anything outside the top-25. Iron play will once again be at a premium this week and there are few who flush it like Conners.

Olympic Golf Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Abraham Ancer (+400)

Of the 60 players in this week’s field, seven are full-time members of LIV Golf, each of whom overcame a lack of world ranking points for that circuit to still qualify for a field dependent upon ranking points. That includes both players from Mexico, with Carlos Ortiz joining Ancer, but it’s the latter who should best fit this course. Ancer only qualified for a single major championship this year, finishing T-58 at the recent Open Championship, though he does own a LIV victory and three other top-10s this year. 

The very nature of that tour’s events make it difficult to handicap its players, but Ancer has proven himself worthy of being included in a staking plan on any short, tight track that should suit his style.

Aggressive: Victor Perez (+400)

I’ve already written about motivation and determination serving as bigger factors than other weeks, and there are few who should embody these qualities like those competing for the host country. Perez is joined by Matthieu Pavon as France’s inclusions here and while they each make some sense, I’ll stick with the one who owns slightly bigger odds. 

It’s been a hit-or-miss type of season for Perez on the PGA Tour, epitomized by his last half-dozen starts, which include three top-12s, but also a pair of missed cuts. What we’ve found is that the iron play is usually sound and if/when the putter cooperates, he can contend for a title. With the home crowd behind him, I like taking a chance that he’ll be buoyed up this leaderboard.

Olympic Golf Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Matteo Manassero (+160)

This is a name I wrote about often during the Scottish Open and Open Championship, when he finished T-15 and T-31, respectively. This has been a rejuvenation season for the Italian, who won on the DP World Tour for the first time in 11 years and has put himself into position for PGA Tour status next season. Perhaps most impressive is that he’s done most of his damage while wielding a wand on the putting greens, which has been something less than magical. Like many of those in this preview, Manassero is the quintessential ball-striking wizard whose name comes affixed with an “if he starts to make some putts…” asterisk.

Aggressive: Shubhankar Sharma (+260)

With only 60 players in this week’s field, a top-20 finish merely means beating two-thirds of the players, some of whom will already be punching above their weight in this type of event. Sharma has easily been inside that top one-third in each of his last three starts, parlaying a T-5 at the Italian Open into results of T-39 at the Scottish Open and T-19 at The Open against stellar fields. I love the plus-money top-20 play here and don’t hate the big-money price on him to claim one of the medals.