Playoff fever is officially upon us, as the first FedEx Cup postseason event – the FedEx St. Jude Championship – is one-quarter of the way done in Memphis.
Through the opening round, it’s Akshay Bhatia atop the leaderboard with an 8-under 62, which is just Example 87,924 of why professional golf is so difficult to handicap.
Two weeks ago, Bhatia held a share of the 54-hole lead at the 3M Open, but posted a final-round 75 to finish in a share of 25th place. Last week, in his home state of North Carolina at the Wyndham Championship, he was on his way to a fifth straight MC at the tournament before an extended weather suspension led to an early withdrawal.
And now, he’s on top thanks to blistering iron play on Thursday, to the tune of two strokes better than the next-best in the field.
If there’s a clue as to whom might win this tourney, though, it comes directly from that statistic, as Bhatia and Tommy Fleetwood were 1-2 in SG: Approach in the opener and not coincidentally are also 1-2 on the leaderboard. Of course, that only further reinforces the fact that we’re trying to avoid another win from Scottie Scheffler, who’s clearly the best iron player in the world right now.
I hate to say it, but I actually think this could be the week that Fleetwood (+450) finally wins a PGA Tour title. If you bet him at 22/1 pre-tourney, well, I admire your perseverance. If you’re picking him up live at the current number, though, that might be more idealistic than admirable. If Tommy beats me from this number, I’ll tip my hat to him. If he follows his opening 7-under 63 with something closer to even-par and brings some more value into Round 3, I’ll consider adding him.
As for those I do like, let’s start with Xander Schauffele (+3000). I feel like I’ve written a million times over the past few months that I think he’s destined for something good here at the end of the season and we’re running out of opportunities. At twice his opening price, but only a half-dozen strokes back, I like the idea of grabbing him before Friday’s round starts.
I’m not quite as bullish on Justin Thomas (+4500), who’s had some success at TPC Southwind, but man, that number is verrry tempting. Considering he gained more than a stroke on the field both off the tee and with his irons while losing with the short game and putter, there are plenty of signs pointing toward positive regression for JT moving forward.
Wyndham Clark (+5000) opened with a 67, but had contrasting stats to those of Thomas, doing most of his damage with the flatstick. That doesn’t bode as well, however I did like Clark pre-tourney and you’re getting him at the same price he started the week.
My last four options are all triple-digit longshots on the current board whom I liked entering the opening round.
Following a T-5 finish last week that saw him become the lone player to jump into the top-70 after the Wyndham, Chris Kirk (+12500) hit the irons well once again in his first-round 68. A six-time winner, he probably has more win equity – even in a big-boy field – than most would realize.
Speaking of last week, Cameron Young (+15000) ranked second off the tee and first on the greens in Greensboro, which makes it so intriguing that he was fourth with his irons on Thursday. He’s still seven back after posting a 69, but there’s a non-zero chance that he starts firing on all cylinders. Remember: The last time he won was in 2021, when he followed a Korn Ferry Tour victory with another the very next week. Also: Lucas Glover did the Greensboro/Memphis double two years ago on a pair of courses which aren’t too dissimilar.
It was a brutal start for Sam Burns (+15000), whose 4-over front-nine had me thinking about Tiger Woods at the 1997 Masters. That might be a pie-in-the-sky feeling for my pre-tourney favorite outright, but he did go 4-under on the back to grab some momentum entering the final three rounds.
And lastly, this is a big week for Patrick Cantlay (+17500), who not only wants to remain inside the top-30 on the points list, but is trying to impress Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley. An even-par opening round won’t help, but the approach numbers were solid and he’s been runner-up and T-12 here the past two years.
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