John Deere Classic Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

We’ve officially reached the point in the schedule where Ben Griffin is the pre-tournament favorite for a PGA Tour event – and that’s no knock on Griffin, who continues to ride a multi-month heater, nor is it a critique on the John Deere Classic, a tourney whose intrigue lies in the fact that it’s largely devoid of superstars.

Stars can be born at these events, just as we believed might’ve happened here last year, when Davis Thompson triumphed, and perhaps last week, when 20-year-old Aldrich Potgieter claimed the Rocket Classic.

Those who aren’t investing their money weekly in the PGA Tour’s product might bemoan the tournaments which don’t feature the best players, but a few weeks of avoiding the Scottie Scheffler Conundrum isn’t terrible for bettors, especially at this week’s event, which shows plenty of value throughout the board.

In last week’s preview, I wrote that the Rocket Classic is one of the more predictive tournaments on the schedule because it tends to offer an edge to the bigger hitters, and while I didn’t name Potgieter in that piece, it was the biggest hitter of them all who prevailed.

This week provides a chance for the little guys – or at least those who don’t bomb it off the tee. Host course TPC Deere Run is a place where Steve Stricker once dominated and where Zach Johnson has made a fortune, which tells you just about everything you need to know about it.

I’m going to chalk up last year’s result as an outlier, as the winner (Davis Thompson) and two of the runners-up (Luke Clanton and Michael Thorbjornsen) don’t exactly fit the profile here. That doesn’t mean those guys – or like-minded players – can’t contend once again, but I’ll largely chase accuracy and putting over distance.

Over the past half-dozen editions of this event, here are the season-long ranks of each JDC winner in these categories. I’m not sure this screams anything definitive other than it’s a place where anyone can win independent of form, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

John Deere Classic Past Winners

And with that, let’s get to this week’s selections, starting with a player who’s been knocking on the door here for a few years.

John Deere Classic Outright Picks

Conservative: Denny McCarthy (+2500)

Two weeks ago, before picking McCarthy for a lofty finish at the Travelers Championship, this is what I wrote: “When — and not if, because it’s going to happen — McCarthy finally claims his first PGA Tour victory, it might very well take place on a course such as this one.” Spoiler alert: It didn’t happen there, but TPC Deere Run might suit his game even better than TPC River Highlands.

I debated whether or not to list McCarthy in this spot just because it felt too obvious, too chalky, but if we’ve learned anything over the years, it’s that we should take the obvious plays when they come. None of that, of course, means that McCarthy is some lock to win this week, but with results of sixth, sixth and seventh over the past three years and a pedigree which suggests he’s ready to win his first one soon, this feels like a very good price in an inferior field. If fairways, greens and mid-range birdie putts are once again a recipe for success here, he has all the tools to cash these tickets. 

Aggressive: Thriston Lawrence (+6600)

Much as I wrote in last week’s preview, this feels like another tournament where my outrights and finishing position plays can be mixed and matched to fit your specific card. I landed on Lawrence in this spot based on his ceiling – when he’s playing his best golf, he can often look like a top-tier type of player, and recent finishes of T-4 at the Soudal Open, T-12 at the U.S. Open and T-8 at the Rocket Classic suggest he’s current playing something close to his best golf after a lengthy string of poor performances earlier in the year.

With four wins on the DP World Tour since late-2021, he doesn’t seem like the kind of player who will get too flustered if/when in contention once again. Think of Lawrence right now as a poor man’s Ryan Fox, who’s proven to be a rich man himself with two victories already this season. 

John Deere Classic Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Michael Thorbjornsen (+550)

In the golf prognostication industry, we often discuss the all-important intersection between course history and recent form. For Thorbjornsen, that axis lands squarely in the top-five market, as he finished runner-up here last year and T-4 last week. By every measure, he made sense in Detroit – other than the fact that his last start in mid-May ended with a WD and he hadn’t competed since. It’s difficult to know exactly how a player will return from such a layoff, but now that we’ve already seen a glimpse of the guy who earned his card through PGA Tour U last year, it’s safe to assume he’s healthy and ready for another title contention at this one.

Aggressive: Alex Smalley (+750)

In 18 starts this season, Smalley only owns one top-five result, but he does have eight top-25s, which shows he’s playing a lot of really good golf, even if he’s not often playing great golf. Even so, I like taking a chance on him for a spike week at a place where he shared runner-up honors two years ago on a course which should suit him. As I wrote above, I’d consider each of these placements to be fairly fluid. In other words, if you like Smalley for an outright this week, don’t be scared of it, and if you only like him for a top-20, well, that’s fine, too.

John Deere Classic Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Bud Cauley (+375) and Lucas Glover (+350)

Consider this indecisiveness to be my gift to you, as I’ll offer up an extra player in this market due to the idea that I just couldn’t pick only one. Cauley is a terrific course fit, who owns three results of 18th or better in his last four starts at this event, and now just happens to be playing the best golf of his career. He’s gained strokes with both his driver and his irons in eight of his last 10 starts, so this play makes a lot of sense, as does an outright sprinkling at 40/1.

Glover is a player I’d consider a so-called course horse. At 45 years old, we know who he is and where he plays well, so his success should be more predictive than a guy with 20 years less experience. While the John Deere wasn’t always an ATM for him, it’s become exactly that in recent years, with three top-10s in the last five, including a win in 2021. Even last year, when he “only” finished T-23, Glover posted four sub-70 rounds here. His ball-striking was very good during a missed cut at the U.S. Open and even better during a top-10 at the Travelers Championship. If the putter cooperates even just a little, he can contend here once again. 

Aggressive: Mark Hubbard (+400)

Yet another predictive player, though in a different way than Glover. For Hubbard, it’s often as simple as this: When he’s hot, he’s hot and when he’s not, he’s not. Earlier this year, he missed the cut in Phoenix, then proceeded to miss each of his next three. He figured something out in Puntacana, finishing T-12, then went T-5 and T-7 in his next two starts. Last week, he was T-13 at the Rocket Classic, which should portend more good things moving forward. At a spot where he was T-6 two years ago, I like Hubbard to continue stepping on the gas pedal.

John Deere Classic Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+250)

Another course fit, the South African has a pair of top-20s in his last four starts at tourneys where cashing such tickets was more difficult than it should be this week. We’re still waiting for C-Bez to live up to the billing that came with having 10 professional wins around the world and three on the DP World Tour, but an ability to keep it in the short stuff and an exquisite short game should have him somewhere on the first page or two of the leaderboard this week.

Aggressive: Jacob Bridgeman (+275)

My initial thought was to list Bridgeman for a better finishing position play, but six straight starts outside the top-25 forced me to dial it back a little. Despite that drought – and despite a missed cut here last year – I still have some faith that he can show up for this one with some improved ball-striking, though it appears his putter is red-hot once again.

John Deere Classic Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Ryo Hisatsune (+115) and Henrik Norlander (+150)

This one admittedly won’t jump off the page, but Hisatsune has shown a propensity for a decent floor, finishing top-40 in seven of his last 11 starts, with a game to fit TPC Deere Run. Norlander, meanwhile, has been fantastic with his irons this season, trailing only Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka and Viktor Hovland in approach play. Somehow that’s only yielded him six top-40s in 17 individual starts, but this is a spot where the so-called “positive regression” should hit pretty soon.

Aggressive: Jackson Koivun (+140)

My last finishing position play might be my favorite. The world’s new No. 1-ranked amateur, Koivun has yet to prove himself against the pros, with a best finish of T-48 in five starts, but just like Luke Clanton and Michael Thorbjornsen before him, there’s reason to believe Koivun can contend for a title while still in college. If you want to take it one step further, Nick Dunlap won a PGA Tour event in a field that was decidedly more stacked than this one. While I’m not so sure the Auburn youngster is ready to match that feat, the 150/1 outright number is awfully tantalizing.

John Deere Classic First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Nico Echavarria (+6000)

I’m never sure how to make a personal ruling on overrated/underrated players, because it’s all subjective in how they’re rated in the first place. That said, I’ll submit that Echavarria remains one of the more underrated players on the PGA Tour. He hits it straight, hits it well with his irons and is among the best putters around, all of which serves as a nice little combo this week. With opening-round scores of 68 or better in three of his last five starts, the play here is for a single-day investment in hopes of a spike performance on the greens, but I certainly don’t mind him for full-tourney plays, either.

Aggressive: Zach Johnson (+10000)

Come on: Did you really think we’d make it through an entire John Deere preview without seeing Johnson’s name? In 22 career starts, he’s made the cut 19 times, with 10 top-25s, seven top-10s, three runners-up and a win back in 2012. And in just 11 starts this season, he’s got an opening-round 65 (last week in Detroit) and three opening 66s, suggesting his best golf could/should come early in the week.