Hypothetical Odds on Every U.S. Ryder Cup Candidate

The most important part of a Ryder Cup captain’s job is finding the right players to fill the final six wildcard spots on the roster. This pursuit, though, often develops in the form of an inverted pyramid, in that the closer it comes to approaching the deadline, the easier it becomes to make these decisions. The herd thins itself through performance, natural selection leading to survival of the fittest.

Or more to the point, as the season progresses, the captain continually crosses names off his master list until it’s whittled down to a manageable position.

U.S. captain Keegan Bradley is a Ryder Cup outlier. He hasn’t seen his job get any easier.

Over the past month, Bradley might’ve actually added more players to his list, as he shuffles the names of potential candidates – including himself.

At this point in the proceedings – one week before the top-six on the points standings automatically qualify; two weeks before the captain’s picks are announced – most captains are looking at perhaps seven or eight players for those final half-dozen spots, but Bradley’s pool could be as deep as nearly twice that number, as he attempts to find the right combination of those in form, those who fit host course Bethpage Black and those who should pair well with others on the roster.

Let’s dive right into that pool, as we offer hypothetical odds for every American player with designs on competing in next month’s biennial competition.

Hypothetical Odds on Every U.S. Ryder Cup Candidate

1. Scottie Scheffler

Odds: Off the board

On a team with so much uncertainty, Scheffler remains the constant, having qualified months ago. Sorry, but even a theoretical sportsbook can’t give you odds on a guarantee.

2. J.J. Spaun

Odds: Off the board

If there was concern about a letdown after his U.S. Open victory, Spaun did plenty to allay those fears, posting a pair of 65s on the weekend in Memphis before losing in a playoff to Justin Rose. The only concern now is finding the right partner for him.

3. Xander Schauffele

Odds: Off the board

After a two-month injury absence at the beginning of the year, he hasn’t quite seemed like the guy who won a pair of majors last year, but the game has looked close for a while now. With an 11-6-0 record in the last four years of Ryder/Presidents Cup, there are much bigger things to worry about on this team than Schauffele showing up with his best stuff.

4. Russell Henley

Odds: -10000

OK, you want odds, so we’ll list ‘em here, but at this point something miraculous would have to happen for Henley to be left at home. He’s likely to automatically qualify and even if three players somehow leapfrog him this week, Bradley will assuredly name him to the squad.

5. Bryson DeChambeau

Odds: Off the board

Perhaps it seems a bit backward to list a price for Henley, but not for DeChambeau, who’s a spot further back and can’t accrue anymore points. That’s because Bradley already conceded last month that the LIV star would definitely be part of the team. In fact, it might behoove the captain to have a few players push Bryson outside the top-six and be able to use one of his wildcard selections on him instead. Either way, he’ll be at Bethpage.

6. Harris English

Odds: -5000

Much like Henley, his fellow Bulldog, it feels like English’s chances of being left off this roster are slim and none. He has two chances to make it, clinging to that final automatic spot and undoubtedly near the top of Bradley’s list if he does fall outside of it. You know he’d love to take care of business at this week’s BMW Championship and not have to wait another week for that phone call.

7. Justin Thomas

Odds: -2500

A final-round 65 on Sunday was massive for JT, as it moved him to within 92 points of the final automatic spot, but just as importantly, might’ve solidified some confidence that captain has in a player whose ceiling has been very high and floor has been very low.

8. Collin Morikawa

Odds: -1000

Here’s where the real intrigue starts. Morikawa is a world-class ball-striker who’s been-there and done-that when it comes to team competitions. He’s also on his fifth caddie in a frustrating year that’s included just a single top-10 in his last dozen starts. This past week, he opened 66-65 in Memphis, but failed to break 70 on the weekend and finished T-22. The feeling here is that the decision-makers will believe he’s simply too talented to be left at home, but you can make a strong case against his inclusion.

9. Ben Griffin

Odds: -1000

If Griffin’s name was “Justin Thomas” or “Collin Morikawa,” his odds might be off the board right now. Which is to say, his performance warrants a spot on this roster, but the name recognition isn’t on the same level as others. Based on everything Bradley has shared about Ryder Cup rookies having a similar overall record as veterans, that willingness to eschew experience should serve him well when the picks are announced.

10. Keegan Bradley

Odds: -350

If the other names from No. 8 down are intriguing, then the captain’s bid to compete on his own team is downright fascinating. On the one hand, Bradley has played terrific golf throughout much of the year, winning the Travelers Championship and posting four other top-10 results. He’s also as much of a course fit for Bethpage as anyone. And yet, if we’re handicapping the possibilities, it’s fair to wonder whether four consecutive finishes of 30th or worse, coupled with the recent emergence of players such as Cameron Young and Chris Gotterup, could force the captain to focus on one role instead of two. It was always going to be an awkward announcement if he was naming himself to this team and while there’s still a better chance than not that it happens, it’s fair to think that it is not as likely as it was a few weeks ago. The ironic part, of course, is that if anyone else was leading the team this year, they’d almost certainly pick Bradley, who was unceremoniously left out two years ago.

11. Maverick McNealy

Odds: +150

For all of the debate and conjecture as to whom might make this roster, McNealy is often the highest-ranked player left out of the conversation. A year which featured plenty of good (three top-three finishes) and plenty of not-so-good (six outside the top-50) has leveled out recently, with four of his last five landing between 17th and 28th place on the leaderboard. It’s tough to discern whether Bradley will reward ceilings or floors, just as it’s tough to know if there’s more talk about McNealy within the confines of those making the decisions than amongst the public.

12. Andrew Novak

Odds: +200

Much of what it says above in regard to McNealy can similarly be applied to Novak, who’s been continually impressive this year, but might not have the resume to make this roster. That said, he plays fearless and could be a course fit. Coming off a T-6 in Memphis, the next two weeks could be as big for him as they are for anyone on this list.

13. Brian Harman

Odds: +275

Even though he’s played some of his best golf on bigger ballparks over the years, what’s probably hurting Harman the most is that this Ryder Cup is being played on a beastly venue. If this was being held in Paris or Rome, places where precision was more important than power, his odds would be much shorter.

14. Cameron Young

Odds: -180

Just a few weeks ago, Young likely wasn’t even an afterthought for this roster, but his resurgence epitomizes the quandary which has been facing Bradley – essentially, adding more names to that list than he’s subtracting. That’s not necessarily a bad problem to have, obviously. Young’s world-class tee-to-green game has been joined by a much-improved putting performance and his current form simply can’t be ignored. At a course which suits his game, it’ll be tough to leave him off the team at this point.

15. Patrick Cantlay

Odds: +100

If Bradley is the most compelling will-he-or-won’t-he name on this list, then Cantlay is the clear 1B, with pros and cons columns as lengthy as any other candidate. The pros: He’s played on each of the last five U.S. teams, he pairs well with his buddy Schauffele and he ranks 10th in SG: Total this season – better than Griffin, Bradley, Novak, McNealy and Young. The cons: He might’ve caused more distraction than anything two years ago, he missed the cut in three of the four majors and his putter has been more cold than hot this year. Returning to Caves Valley this week, site of his BMW victory four years ago, he might need a repeat performance to assure himself a place on this squad. At 15th in the standings, he’s about as 50/50 as it gets right now.

16. Sam Burns

Odds: +450

The mission is simple: Play great golf this week, qualify for the Tour Championship (he’s currently 24th in the FedEx Cup standings), then play great golf again. That’s not an impossible task, but much like chasing a six-shot deficit entering a final round, it’s a lot easier when there’s only one player between you and the lead instead of a dozen. Burns has to play well enough to leapfrog a whole bunch of other guys.

17. Wyndham Clark

Odds: +2500

After a frustrating season which included some viral temper tantrums, Clark had appeared to get things together in the past month, posting three results of 12th or better. That vaulted him inside the top-50 on the FedEx list entering last week, but an ugly weekend scorecard meant his season ended early – and almost assuredly, any chance of making the Ryder Cup team.

18. Lucas Glover

Odds: +1500

His odds are shorter than those of Clark simply because he has more golf left to play, but Glover likely needs to go on a run that mirrors his Greensboro/Memphis double of two years ago, even with his course history of having won a U.S. Open at Bethpage in 2009.

21. Chris Gotterup

Odds: +140

I’m admittedly skipping over Nos. 19 and 20, Daniel Berger and Akshay Bhatia, because it appears they have little chance of making this team (although they each might have two more tourney starts to show something), and instead going straight to Gotterup, whose profile has improved by leaps and bounds over the past month. He won the Genesis Scottish Open, finished T-3 at The Open and T-10 at the 3M. Perhaps the best thing Gotterup has going for him, though, is that he’s Brooks Koepka Lite, which is to say that he’s confident bordering on cocky and owns the kind of swagger which can be intimidating in match play. Throw in the fact that a New Jersey native would endear himself to the New York crowds and Gotterup could be the biggest wildcard on this list.

28. Jordan Spieth

Odds: +1000

It was hardly the worst season for Spieth, coming off wrist surgery late last year, but he still somehow finished behind Tom Hoge, Denny McCarthy, Tony Finau, Sam Stevens, Chris Kirk and Jacob Bridgeman, with his season now over after he didn’t advance in the playoffs. There’s a non-zero chance that Bradley doesn’t care about any of that and simply wants a guy who can still make birdies in bunches, but this would be among the most controversial selections in Ryder Cup history – and would leave the captain open to a tremendous amount of criticism if it doesn’t work