How to Bet Scottie Scheffler Coming Off Lengthy Absence

Well, if you were ever clamoring for an opportunity to chase a +500 outright favorite who’s coming off hand surgery and hasn’t played a competitive event in eight weeks, I suppose this would be the time.

When we last saw Scottie Scheffler, he was busy putting the finishing touches on a nine-win campaign by prevailing over a short field at the Hero World Challenge. That was the perfect bow to wrap up a campaign that included another green jacket, a gold medal and every postseason award for which he was eligible.

There might’ve been another win, too, if the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am wasn’t washed out, leaving Scheffler in a share of sixth place, four strokes behind winner Wyndham Clark.

He returns this week to one of the game’s most venerable venues following a Christmas dinner incident that led to him missing the first few scheduled starts of this new season.

Last year, I often wrote about the Scottie Scheffler Conundrum for bettors, which essentially stated that we never really wanted to back him at the short prices that were being offered, but we didn’t really want to bet anyone else, either, knowing that a Scheffler victory was the most likely ending scenario.

This week presents a slightly different kind of conundrum – more for the oddsmakers than bettors.

It’s going to be tough to drum up much interest in the world’s No. 1-ranked player at such a short price, but on the other hand, he’s still the best in the game and still very capable of winning, as he’s done at a 30 percent clip over the past 24 months.

If there’s any question around Scheffler’s game, it’s how he’ll return from injury, as he’s been largely healthy during his career, save for a few back/neck issues which have led to him getting in-round physiotherapy.

There might, however, not be much of a question as to how he plays following an extended absence.

Since gaining full PGA Tour membership in the fall of 2019, Scheffler has experienced 16 instances of having at least four weeks without competition in between tournament starts. How he’s fared in these starts could serve as a precursor to this week’s return:

Scottie Scheffler Results Following Extended Break

In his first nine starts after a one-month layoff, Scheffler posted just one top-10 result and four top-25s. In his last seven starts in these situations, he’s won twice and finished top-10 every single time.

There are two takeaways from these results and both of them can be correct.

The first is that, very simply, these most recent performances correlate to Scheffler’s overall play. Which is to say, he’s played better after long absences during the last two years because he’s played better everywhere during the last two years.

It’s hard to argue against that one.

The second is that Scottie has learned a little something about preparing and staying sharp away from competition. Whereas his early-career returns suggest that he often needed some momentum to play his best golf, his most recent ones prove that he’s showing up ready to roll.

That’s a learned trait for many PGA Tour players, as it’s difficult to replicate the grind of being inside the ropes, whether that means playing money games at the home club or digging it out of the dirt on the practice range for hours ahead of time. It shouldn’t be surprising that a player improves in these scenarios as he gains more experience with them.

We’ll see if the recent trend continues this week, when Scheffler returns off that eight-week layoff, trying to once again get into the mix for a victory after a lengthy absence.