How Recent Masters Champions Fared in Final Starts Before Augusta

Not long after he prevailed in Monday morning’s Players Championship playoff, Rory McIlroy revealed that he hasn’t decided whether he’ll play the Texas Children’s Houston Open or the Valero Texas Open, but he’s leaning toward Houston.

Scottie Scheffler will play that one. Tony Finau and Wyndham Clark have similarly committed.

Meanwhile, the Valero will host a surprisingly brawny field that includes Ludvig Aberg, Colin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama.

That’s all after the likes of Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood compete at this week’s Valspar Championship.

You get the picture: It’s hardly a unanimous decision, but most of the world’s elite-level players will get in one or two more competitive reps before next month’s Masters Tournament.

We might have already been given a few clues as to whom might be ready to roll at Augusta National. McIlroy and Russell Henley won the last two big-time events, Morikawa and Corey Conners each finished top-10, and Fleetwood, Scheffler, Daniel Berger, Denny McCarthy, Keegan Bradley, Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre and Sepp Straka all posted a pair of top-20s.

But we’ll need to keep our eyes peeled for the next three weeks in order to get the full picture.

What are we looking for, exactly? Well, let’s take a look at how each of the last 10 winners of the Masters fared in their final starts beforehand.

How Recent Masters Champions Fared in Final Starts Before Augusta

2016: Danny Willett

Last start: T-28 at the WGC-Dell Match Play

For as indiscriminately entertaining as the old Match Play tournament was, and for as much as professional golf could use another match play format event – possibly at the Tour Championship as early as this season – it often didn’t serve as a great barometer of performance leading into the Masters. Willett wasn’t great there, but he did already have a win in Dubai and a T-3 at Doral in his back pocket before April rolled around.

2017: Sergio Garcia

Last start: T-30 at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

If we’re seeking a correlation here, there’s a strong comparison to Willett the previous year, who similarly won in Dubai and similarly didn’t do much at the Match Play in his final start before the big one.

2018: Patrick Reed

Last start: T-9 at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Though he didn’t win in the year’s first three months, Reed entered Augusta with a resume that showed results of T-2 (Valspar Championship), T-7 (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and T-9 (Match Play) in his last three starts beforehand, suggesting greater success was impending on a course which already suited his game.

2019: Tiger Woods

Last start: T-5 at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

If it looks in retrospect like Tiger was building up to something big at the Masters, well, that’s because he was. It’s no secret that the majors – and especially this major – mean more to him than other events. He’d finished T-20, T-15, T-10 and T-30 before reaching the quarterfinals at the Match Play, surely showing enough form to be primed for a title run.

2020: Dustin Johnson

Last start: T-2 at the Vivint Houston Open

The world was a strange place in 2020, though it could be stated that things are much stranger in DJ’s world five years later, largely playing as an afterthought on the LIV Golf circuit. Back then, he rode an absolute heater into the Masters, with a win, three runners-up, a T-3 and a T-6 in his final half-dozen starts before the November major.

2021: Hideki Matsuyama

Last start: T-30 at the Valero Texas Open

Despite entering as the world’s 25th-ranked player, there were no real warning signs that Matsuyama was about to peak at Augusta. In a busy schedule that included 10 starts before the first major, he didn’t have a result better than 15th place and had only gained strokes off the tee in five of nine measured starts and with his irons in six of nine.

2022: Scottie Scheffler

Last start: Win at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

As silly as it sounds now, entering the 2022 campaign there were questions regarding Scheffler’s ceiling, as he owned a bevy of close calls without a win. That drought ended at the WM Phoenix Open, which served as the first of three wins in his final five starts before arriving in Augusta.

2023: Jon Rahm

Last start: T-31 at WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Fresh off a withdrawal from The Players due to a stomach bug, Rahm went 1-2 in the group stage and didn’t advance at the Match Play. That might’ve been a small reason for concern, but his three titles in the first two months of the year should’ve helped to alleviate any lingering doubts as to whether he’d be ready for the year’s first major.

2024: Scottie Scheffler

Last start: T-2 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open

Already with victories at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players before one final tune-up, Scheffler missed a 5-foot birdie attempt on the 72nd hole that would’ve forced a playoff with Stephan Jaeger. Even so, there were plenty of clues that Scheffler was about to win his second green jacket, including the fact that he’d gained strokes in all four major statistical categories in each of those three events leading into the Masters.