Genesis Scottish Open Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

For those who regularly pay attention to both the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour – and perhaps more relevantly, those who bet each circuit on a weekly basis – this week’s Genesis Scottish Open annually represents a rollicking dynamic, like hosting a party with both your high school friends and your college buddies, then watching ‘em all interact with each other.

This one has been on the Euro schedule since the early-1970s, but this is only the fourth year it’s been co-sanctioned, ensuring plenty of superstar talent makes the trip overseas in advance of next week’s Open Championship.

Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas and Sam Burns are amongst the elite-level Americans who will tee it up at the Renaissance Club once again, but Europeans – and others from around the globe – have defended their turf well in the past, even as this has become a higher-profile tournament in recent years.

Since the turn of the century, only three Americans have won this tournament – Phil Mickelson (2013), Rickie Fowler (2015) and Schauffele (2022) — and in the past decade only one American, Kurt Kitayama (2022) has even finished runner-up.

Much as when we go from the early-season West Coast Swing to the Florida Swing, this is an event where form probably matters a bit less in relation to familiarity. My list of selections for this one is chock full of those with roots on the DP World Tour, but currently ply their craft mostly in the U.S. and should feel a certain sense of that familiarity upon their return to a 7,237-yard par-70 which isn’t exactly the definitive interpretation of a links course, but at least holds some of those characteristics.

Like any links-ish course, the determining factor for scoring will be the wind, which is why the winning number has ranged from 7-under to 22-under in the past half-dozen years alone. Early forecasts show only a moderate breeze for the four tournament rounds, suggesting it might take something closer to the latter to claim this week’s title.  

Let’s get right to the selections, starting with a handful of players who fit the profile for this one.

Genesis Scottish Open Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Viktor Hovland (+3000)

When last we saw Hovland, he was withdrawing from the Travelers Championship early in the final round with a neck injury. Well, that’s the last we saw of him with our own eyes, at least. If you follow the numerous Hovland fan accounts online – and I don’t, but I do love me some aggregated content which collates the social posts and counts the traffic – you will have noticed that he spent part of the last few weeks on a European vacation with buddies, hanging out and having fun and doing whatever else it is that 27-year-old dudes do on vacation.

I love a few things about this: 1) The neck “injury” seems baked into his price a little this week, as we’re getting a small discount on a player who should fit this course, even if his recent results aren’t great; 2) I used the word “injury” in quotes, because if he was really injured, I’m guessing he might not have been having so much fun on vacation, so it makes me feel better about his health entering this one; and 3) For a player who so often consternates over the progress of his swing, getting away from the grind should put him in the right state of mind to play his best golf.

On a course where players can ball-strike their way to success and don’t have to worry about the types of buried lies around the greens which happen on U.S. venues, I think everything about this plays to Hovland’s strength, both from a technical standpoint and a psychological mindset. 

Aggressive: Harry Hall (+6000)

Yeah, I realize the contradiction of writing in the intro above that I’m largely eschewing recent form this week, then picking Hall based in part on the fact that he’s finished top-25 in each of his last six starts on courses that don’t correlate whatsoever to this one. That form, though, is only a small part of this play. Two days after finishing T-13 at the Rocket Classic a few weeks ago, he returned to his native England and was tied for second in Open Championship qualifying, punching his ticket to Royal Portrush for a third career major start.

Everything is coming up Harry these days and if he can put his foot on the gas pedal, these next couple of weeks could be a massive pedestal in his career progression. And if you’re into physiology and body clocks or maybe just a big fan of coincidence, this week marks the one-year anniversary of his lone PGA Tour win to date. He won’t be back at the opposite-field ISCO Championship to defend his title, but winning a bigger one on the same week would be an even better story. 

Genesis Scottish Open Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Aaron Rai (+850)

I’ll readily admit that I too often try to get a little different in these previews. Even writing on Sunday night/Monday morning, before I’ve even heard which players the public is backing, it’s usually not too difficult to discern whom that might be and go in a different direction. Zig when everyone else zags, so to speak. I’d expect there to be plenty of golf betting analysts who will offer up some form of the following this week: “You know, I’ve got a suspicion that Tommy Fleetwood and Robert MacIntyre just might play pretty well at this one…”

They’re not wrong. I like those guys, too, and I could easily have listed one or both in this category. After all, Fleetwood is fresh off a heartbreaker in his most recent start and has top-10s in two of his last three Scottish starts, while Mac is the defending champion this week and was runner-up the previous year. There are times, though, when I’d prefer to give you a less obvious play in this space and Rai fits the bill from further down the board.

The 2020 winner here, back before he joined the PGA Tour, he’s a tremendous course fit, having also cashed top-five tickets last year, when he closed with a final-round 63. I don’t mind an outright play here and I don’t mind going more conservative with, say, a top-20, but Rai has proven he can contend at this tournament. 

Aggressive: Matt Wallace (+1600)

From recent form to course history, there’s not much to love about Wallace this week, but there’s really nothing to hate, either. That might not be a ringing endorsement for such a lofty placement play, but this is a tournament where the likes of Romain Langasque and David Lingmerth have finished top-five in the last couple of years, so I like taking a shot on a bigger number and I’ve long believed that Wallace has the potential for a career-defining type of win on a stage such as this – not as big as a major, but certainly bigger than his opposite-field PGA Tour win or his five other DP World Tour wins.

Again, he fits the profile of what I’m seeking this week as a guy who regularly plays the PGA Tour, but should receive a bump in more familiar territory this week.

Genesis Scottish Open Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Matt Fitzpatrick (+350)

There’s been an interesting trend on the PGA Tour this year wherein a player seemingly must hit rock-bottom before coming up to the surface and finding success. In early March, Hovland was admittedly lost, only to win the Valspar Championship a few weeks later. Nick Dunlap was nearly despondent after badly missing the cut at the Masters, but finished T-11 last week. And Fitzpatrick didn’t have a top-20 in his first 10 starts, before posting three of ‘em in his last five, including a T-8 in his most recent appearance at the Rocket Classic. (Wyndham Clark could also fit this trend and owns a surprisingly solid Scottish Open record.)

There are hints that the older Fitz brother could be on the verge of a big two-week stretch. He lost in a playoff at Renaissance four years ago and was T-6 the following year, and he was T-20 at Royal Portrush back in 2019. You know he’d prefer to play his best golf next week instead of this one, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if they both turn out to be solid performances. 

Aggressive: Eugenio Chacarra (+1000)

Earlier this year, Chacarra made headlines when he spoke about previously playing LIV Golf and how he became frustrated with the lack of OWGR points and a path into the majors. His money quote, so to speak, to the Flushing It podcast, was: “On LIV, nothing changes, there is only money. It doesn’t matter if you finish thirtieth or first, only money.” Since then, he’s made other headlines, winning the Hero Indian Open and posting two other top-10s on the DP World Tour in hopes of claiming his PGA Tour card for next season.

I’ve watched him a decent amount in those events and while I still have questions about his short game, he’s extremely talented from tee-to-green and that’s what should be needed this week. Throw in the fact that he should be a little more motivated to compete alongside the big boys – he MC’d at the PGA Championship in his only other start amongst the stars this year – and this feels like the right spot to attack with a guy who has loads of potential. 

Genesis Scottish Open Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Ryan Fox (+188)

If Fox hadn’t already won twice this year, I might have him in a higher placement on this list — perhaps even for an outright – but I’m having a little bit of a tough time believing he can continue running that hot for this long. Even though Brian Campbell reminded us (again) that tournament results can be duplicated, independent of each other, it’s difficult to believe Fox is ready to win for a third time in the past few months. All of that said, I still love this spot for him, as he finished T-12 two years ago and should prosper here again.

Aggressive: Jordan Smith (+375)

He used to go by Jordan L. Smith – the L is for Lewis, by the way – but now the DP World Tour regular simply goes by Jordan Smith, perhaps a nod to the fact that his ascension has increased to the point where he no longer needs a middle initial. He might still get confused for either Jordan Spieth or Matthew Jordan, but Smith has been making even more of a name for himself lately, as the 32-year-old Englishman is fresh off his second runner-up finish of the DP World Tour season and owns four top-seven results in his last seven starts. Like Fox, he was T-12 two years ago and should be ripe for another strong finish.

Genesis Scottish Open Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Alex Noren (+120)

Back at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, when Schauffele made his return after a two-month injury absence, I spoke with him about having more fuel in the tank later in the season and we ruminated over the fact that it could bode well for him when everyone else is running on fumes. Well, a few weeks ago, I had a similar conversation with Noren, who didn’t play any tournament golf from October until May after dealing with various injuries, including a tear in his right hamstring. In just his second start back, he played in the final pairing at the PGA Championship alongside Scottie Scheffler, eventually finishing T-17, and hasn’t played his best golf since, but like Schauffele, should have more tread on the tires as the season continues into the summer. He’s cashed top-40 tickets here in two of the last three years.

Aggressive: Laurie Canter (+175), Kristoffer Reitan (+175), and Francesco Laporta (+200)

If you’ve been paying attention to the DP World Tour on a regular basis — if you can tell Marco Penge from Martin Couvra — the impending fortnight is your time to shine, at least in the placement markets, where finding value on the fuzzy foreigners can be a make-or-break proposition. I’ve already listed Chacarra and Smith above, but I really believe the top-40 market is a great place to find value on some guys who have been playing well overseas. I’ve listed the names of Canter, Reitan and Laporta here, each of whom I like, but this is less about these specific names and more about backing some of the players we don’t usually see in PGA Tour-sanctioned fields.

Genesis Scottish Open First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Justin Rose (+8000)

Anyone who’s ever made a wager in the FRL market for the Masters is well aware that Rose is no stranger to stepping on the gas pedal early, as this year marked his fifth career Thursday overnight lead at Augusta National. His opening-round results haven’t been nearly as fruitful at this event – nor have his four-round results, for that matter – but in recent years, the 44-year-old has often shown up on leaderboards when we least expect it, so coming off a pair of MCs at a place where he’s MC’d each of the last two years certainly plays into that theory.

Aggressive: Erik van Rooyen (+10000) and Tom Hoge (+12500)

Last year, Justin Thomas posted an opening 62 to grab the early lead here, but the previous two years featured Byeong Hun An and Cameron Tringale as the Thursday leaders, which suggests there’s some reason to take a deep dive down this board and find some options with bigger prices. I’m simply looking here for massive single-round upside and believe both EVR and Hoge have that on any given day. These aren’t confidence selections by any means, but if you’re sprinkling on triple-digit prices, they deserve some consideration.