FedEx St. Jude Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

For any fan of professional golf, especially those with a specific investment in the PGA Tour’s product, there’s an annual early-August tradition which never yields.

Criticism of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Whether this occurs in the form of a well-constructed dissertation on how certain amendments might be implemented or only as sarcastic jabs toward any inadequacies, seemingly everyone has an opinion on why this format pales in comparison with the postseasons of other sports leagues.

Perhaps simply to be contradictory to those criticisms, I’ve often pointed out the delicate nature of trying to serve so many masters. Most fans would like to believe that they’re atop the priority list when it comes to decision-making, but the powers-that-be must also factor in the best possible configuration to reward the most deserving players and the most entertaining broadcast to appease the rights holding partners and the biggest bang for sponsors to get some value for their bucks.

That doesn’t mean I believe the current setup is perfect, it just means that I understand a “perfect” balance probably needs to beg and borrow from each of those invested factions.

The latest developments are a great example of this dynamic.

Less than three months ago, the PGA Tour announced that it would eliminate the staggered scoring start to the Tour Championship, which had been implemented in 2019 and offered an advantage to those atop the standings entering the season finale.

This announcement was largely met with gratitude from golf fans, so many of whom had derided the previous format as gimmicky – and rightly so.

If there’s a recurring theme within the evolution of the FedEx Cup playoffs, though, it’s that it often parallels the ol’ plugging-the-dam adage. Patch up one hole and another leak is bound to emerge somewhere else.

And so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that finding a “solution” to the Tour Championship scoring format is already achieving a negative byproduct.

This week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship field is supposed to include the top-70 on the final regular-season points list, but only 69 will travel to Memphis, as Rory McIlroy has decided to skip the first playoff event.

This has likely been planned for a while, as he mentioned 12 months ago that he might skip this event, but really, there’s even less motivation for him to play than when he offered that suggestion. Under the previous format, he needed to continue accruing points in order to start higher on the board at the finale, but with the current system, he’s already qualified and can literally stay home for the next two weeks, show up at East Lake and have just as much of a chance of winning as anybody else in the field.

Again, what’s the right answer here? Well, it feels like the PGA Tour can’t fix one issue without creating another. That’s just the nature of this beast.

Let’s get to the picks for this week’s 70-man – sorry, 69-man – field, where big names abound, yet it hasn’t quite been the best of the best winning this one over the past three years.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Sam Burns (+3300)

The not-so-secret to success at TPC Southwind is iron play – specifically, 8-irons, 9-irons and wedges from 125-175 yards. Getting into position and capitalizing on it are two very different things, though, and the combination of strong short-iron play and hot putting should go a long way once again. Enter the man known as Bermuda Burns, who ranked second in the field (behind only winner Hideki Matsuyama) in putting at this event last year during a T-5 result. The reality is, Burns’ recent play mirrors that of Cameron Young entering last week, as they both contended at the RBC Canadian Open and U.S. Open before posting three consecutive finishes outside the top-40.

That didn’t seem to bother Young in Greensboro, and I’m banking on it not bothering Burns in Memphis. This feels like a fair price for the five-time winner during a week when there’s a theme of most numbers looking too short. Of those who aren’t listed below, I also considered Matt Fitzpatrick and Wyndham Clark for this play and will likely have a small outright investment in each of them, as well. 

Aggressive: Cameron Young (+4000)

Until Sunday, the last time Young won a golf tournament was in May of 2021, when he was still playing on the Korn Ferry Tour. He claimed the AdventHealth Championship for his first career victory on that circuit, then took the Evans Scholars Invitational the very next week. See what I’m getting at here? We already saw the Greensboro/Memphis double accomplished just two years ago, when Lucas Glover went back-to-back, and I’d give Young a much better chance of doing this than I would’ve given Glover that week.

Motivated by a potential trip to his home state of New York for the Ryder Cup and clearly in a groove right now (thanks in part to former college teammate and current caddie Kyle Sterbinsky, whom Young credited effusively throughout the week), it would hardly be a surprise to see him step on the gas pedal and keep a heater going once again. 

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Patrick Cantlay (+500)

Depending on whom you speak with, the 14th-ranked player on the current U.S. Ryder Cup points list is either a no-brainer to be selected to the roster or stands no chance. The one thing each camp can agree on is that a few good weeks certainly wouldn’t hurt the cause. Cantlay’s three missed cuts at majors have provided fodder for those who don’t want him representing the country at Bethpage, but in this week’s other-than-that-how’d-you-like-the-play-Mrs. Lincoln? Moment, he’s played very well otherwise, without the results he’d probably like.

In particular, his iron play has been through the roof all year, gaining strokes on the field in 12 of his last 14, though the two outliers were both majors. Overall, he ranks 12th in SG: Approach and 11th in SG: Total, which confirms that his performance has largely outweighed his results. Perhaps he’s due for a little positive regression at a place where he lost in a playoff two years ago and was T-12 last year. 

Aggressive: Harris English (+650)

At the beginning of each PGA Tour season, when guys like me are trying to make long-term predictions on which players will enjoy a spike in performance over the next eight months, we’re often looking at proven stars and young phenoms. Rarely do we consider a 36-year-old PGA Tour stalwart, but maybe we should have. None of which is to suggest that English was some sort of journeyman before this year – he’s always been a very talented player – just that we would’ve had a difficult time envisioning his run of success. English won the Farmers Insurance Open early this season, then earned a share of second place at the PGA Championship, T-4 at the Travelers Championship and was the sole runner-up finisher at The Open Championship.

All of which has him on the inside track to getting back to the Ryder Cup next month. While he didn’t do much in Memphis either of the past two years, English did win on this golf course at the erstwhile FedEx St. Jude Classic back in 2013, which should at least help his mojo this week. 

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Tommy Fleetwood (+175)/Russell Henley (+200)

This feels like the perfect week to bank on a couple of world-class ball-strikers with unequivocally high floors. I tend to lump Fleetwood and Henley into the same category, despite the latter having five more PGA Tour wins, and each one has shown some equity in this category, with one top-10 apiece here over the past two years. Neither is a sexy play, but if you want to spice things up and parlay ‘em, I don’t hate the idea.

Aggressive: Chris Kirk (+500)

With a T-5 finish last week in Greensboro, Kirk moved from 73rd on the FedEx Cup points list to 61st – the lone player to move into the top-70 at the final regular-season event. Ask most golf fans and they’d probably guess the under on his career victory total, as the six-time winner doesn’t often garner much attention. That number, though, just proves that when he gets things going, he can really get it going. His results the past two years in Memphis aren’t anything special (16th-50th), but he does own four scores of 67 or better in those eight rounds, so there’s evidence he can go low here.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Jake Knapp (+175)

Prior to missing the cut at the Wyndham Championship, Knapp had five consecutive top-30 finishes, including a pair of top-fives. A guy who does his damage with the driver/putter combo instead of the irons, he might not be a perfect fit for this golf course, but I actually like the fact that he was able to get some rest on the weekend after such a busy summer schedule. You’re not going to get rich playing top-20s in this 69-man field, but only having to finish in the top 29 percent of the field should be reason enough to make a few plays in this market.

Aggressive: Daniel Berger (+125)

I spent the first six months of this year loading up on Berger bets, even past the point of when he stopped suggesting he was about to break through for another victory. He finished top-30 in 10 of his first 12 starts this season, but hasn’t finished better than 30th in any of his last seven. I do, however, think he can be the beneficiary of some good vibes this week, as he returns to the site of his back-to-back wins in 2016 and 2017. At 30th on the FedEx Cup points list, he needs a good week either at this one or the BMW to clinch a spot in the Tour Championship field.

FedEx St. Jude Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Justin Thomas (+2800)

This one can’t be sugar-coated: JT has been either really good or really not-so-good in opening rounds this year. There was the 61 to start his RBC Heritage victory, plus three 66s and a pair of 67s. But there was also a 76 at the U.S. Open, a 78 at The Players Championship and an 80 at the Memorial Tournament. Well, it’s important to remember that FRLs aren’t floor plays. I’m all-in on volatility in this market. A pair of opening 67s at TPC Southwind help prove he can go low here on Thursday.

Aggressive: Harry Hall (+4000)

I often like taking guys such as Sam Burns or Denny McCarthy for FRL plays, because they’re two of the best putters and I’m in favor of the idea of playing a guy who can go nuclear on the greens. With apologies to those two, though, nobody has putted better on the PGA Tour this year than Hall, who jumped two spots into No. 1 on the SG: Putting list last week. Then there’s the small matter of him breaking 70 in 17 of 22 opening rounds so far this year, including in 10 of his last 11, good for fifth on the R1 scoring average list. Some guys like to ease their way into a week; others prefer to step on the gas pedal from the first hole on Thursday. Hall seems like the latter, which makes him ripe for an FRL play.