FedEx St Jude Championship: PGA Expert Picks This Week

The PGA Tour playoffs begin this week at TPC Southwind with the FedEx St. Jude Championship. 

With Rory McIlroy sitting out, Scottie Scheffler (+275) enters as a prohibitive favorite. Only Xander Schauffele (+1400) sits at +2000 or shorter. 

A logjam occurs on the board with eight players priced between +2200 and +3000. Included in that group: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200), Justin Thomas (+2500) and Russell Henley (+2500). 

Let’s dive into my PGA expert picks for the FedEx St. Jude based on golf odds from BetMGM. 

FedEx St Jude Championship Odds

PGA Tour Expert Picks: FedEx St Jude Championship 2025

J.J. Spaun (+5000) | Top-20 Finish (+130)

Above all else, the number on Spaun is patently absurd. 

Spaun, a major winner in 2025, carries a worse price than Aaron Rai, Maverick McNealy and Robert MacIntyre. He’s the same number as Daniel Berger and Harry Hall. 

From a course fit standpoint, Spaun should perform well at TPC Southwind. 

The course requires both accuracy and distance off the tee. Entering this week, Spaun sits 22nd on tour in total driving (accuracy + distance). 

Over his last 24 rounds, he sits 19th in the field in SG: Ball Striking. He also sits third in birdies or better gained and fourth in SG: Putting.

Consider a larger sample size, and Spaun improves statistically. Here are some rankings over his last 50 rounds:

• SG: APP – 12th
• Opportunities Gained – 14th
• Birdies or Better Gained – 6th
• Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 & 450-500 Yards: 18th & 20th, respectively
• Greens in Regulation Gained: 14th

In that model, Spaun ranks seventh in the field. Yet, he’s priced as the 27th-favorite in the current odds. 

Ludvig Aberg (+2500) | Top-20 Finish (-105)

If history proves true and ball-striking proves more important than a player’s short game, I like Aberg’s profile. 

Two stats I like on Aberg supporting a strong week. First, he’s 31st on tour this year in total driving, with a better distance record than accuracy. 

Second, he ranks 25th in birdie percentage on Par 4s, a critical stat at the Par-70 TPC Southwind. 

To find Aberg’s best statistical modeling output, bettors need to consider his 100-round sample size. In that model, Aberg sits third behind only Scheffler and Collin Morikawa. 

However, he also sits eighth and ninth, respectively, over his last eight and 12 measured rounds. 

In the former sample, Aberg posts the following rankings:

• SG: OTT – 9th
• SG: APP – 13th
• Opportunities Gained – 2nd
• Greens in Regulation Gained – 1st
• Driving Distance Gained – 8th
• Fairways Gained – 15th

For Aberg to contend, it likely starts with the putter. Over that eight-round span, he ranks 35th in birdies or better gained and 44th in SG: Putting. 

But the fact that his ARG weakness is mitigated at this track leads me to buy low on his ball-striking record. 

Viktor Hovland (+3000) | Top-20 Finish (+110)

Is the driving record a slight concern? Almost certainly. 

But Hovland has steadily improved with each visit to TPC Southwind. Here are his last five starts in Memphis, beginning with 2020: 59-36-20-13-2. 

If we begin with the assumption that the OTT record improves, it opens the door for Hovland to implement an outstanding approach record. 

Hovland leads the field in SG: APP over his last eight rounds. Over the last 12 measured rounds, he sits second in the field. 

Only three events ago at Oakmont, Hovland gained 8.3 strokes on approach. Only two players gained more with their irons. 

Like Aberg, Hovland’s biggest weakness – a weak chipping game – takes a backseat at Southwind. 

Other factors worth noting about Hovland from the 12-round model, his best placement:

• Birdies or Better Gained – 12th
• Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 & 450-500 Yards – 24th & 2nd
• Greens in Regulation Gained – 5th
• Fairways Gained – 24th

Overall, Hovland ranks fifth in that projection. Comparatively, he ranks 10th on the odds board.