Europe Will Win 2025 Ryder Cup If…

FARMINGDALE, N.Y. – If you’re planning to bet the Ryder Cup – or if you know someone planning to bet the Ryder Cup – you’ve undoubtedly already heard all about how and why the European side is “tremendous value” in the betting markets.

It makes sense. At +160 to win outright, Europe is just a tad longer than a 3.5-point NFL underdog to win on the money line.

With 11 returnees from the team’s resounding victory in Rome two years ago – not to mention the same captain and three of the same assistants – it stands to reason that this team can replicate that past success, though it will hardly be a rinse/repeat situation.

The European team will win if… these five things happen. And here are five reasons the U.S. will win.

Luke Donald doesn’t try to “chase” that 2023 victory.

Anyone who plays golf, even just recreationally, has been there and done this: You post a career round, whether for you that means a 66 or a 74 or an 89. You’re feeling great about your game – until you tee it up the next time and find it impossible to repeat that prior success.

It happens to the pros, too. How often do we see someone post something in the low-60s, then struggle to break par the following day? Way more often than we see ‘em go low again.

The point is, chasing is difficult. In golf terms, that might mean chasing a low round, but it’s also the reason we see so few repeat champions in other sports. If reaching the pinnacle of success is like climbing a mountain, well, it’s tough to stay camped out on that apex before sliding down the other side.

This week, there’s going to be plenty of analysis stating that if European captain Luke Donald can just push the same buttons as last time, his squad can retain the trophy. That seems like sound strategy, but even with 11 of the same players, things will undoubtedly play out differently this time.

I’ve already written that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Europe trot out the exact same four teams which went 4-0-0 in the opening foursomes session last time, but it’ll be imperative for Donald and his assistants to not simply try and recreate that entire week, instead being ready to make adjustments on the fly.

Rory McIlroy remains in the right headspace throughout the week.

We’ve all seen it: When McIlroy is confident and playing well, his head is held high, his gait turns into a bounce and a grin appears across his face which suggests he already knows how the tournament is going to end. When things aren’t going his way, though, his shoulders start to slump, he trudges down the fairways and he looks like he’d rather be anywhere else but playing golf at that very moment.

At an individual event, these body language indicators only impact his own performance. At a Ryder Cup, though, when not only partners, but other teammates who are sneaking a peek at the video boards are seeking a bit of inspiration from one of their own, Rory could hold the keys for any momentum swing.

This is a player whose determination is infectious, though one whose melancholy can also permeate the team room.

Europe might not be wholly dependent on McIlroy to find success, but his mood could very well affect everyone else on the roster.

The players can at least placate the New York fans.

It wasn’t so long ago that captains wouldn’t tell players whom they might be partnered with until the rest of the world found out, then the entire prep talk would consist of: “Go win.”

The business of Ryder Cup preparation has boomed in recent years, culminating with this edition of the event, where no stone was left unturned.

In response to the potentially raucous New York fans, Donald gave his players VR headsets which they could program with individualized insults from the home crowd.

“It simulates the sights and sounds and noise,” McIlroy said recently. “That’s the stuff that we are going to have to deal with, so it’s better to try to desensitize yourself as much as possible before you get in there.”

If they can’t beat ‘em, they can always try to join ‘em – well, as much as possible.

The first Ryder Cup that I covered was in 2004 and while it will be remembered for the Tiger/Phil flop of a pairing from U.S. captain Hal Sutton, it was also the site of some strategic planning by European captain Bernhard Langer, who had his players sign every autograph and take every picture for the American fans, even handing out gifts to them during the practice rounds.

I’m not sure there’s a gift large enough to get any New Yorker to cheer for Europe – and I’m not suggesting that would happen. However, a charm offensive has worked in the past, even just to level the playing field a little bit. Maybe it could work again.

Tommy Fleetwood finds his new Francesco Molinari.

Back in 2018, Fleetwood partnered with Molinari, winning four matches together and never playing past the 15th hole in any of ‘em.

Since then, he’s played with three different teammates, going 2-0-0 with McIlroy, 1-0-0 with Nicolai Hojgaard and 0-1-1 with Viktor Hovland.

Based on what we witnessed from Donald two years ago, the idea is to mix-and-match the pairings based on the format, so I wouldn’t expect Fleetwood to play all four partnered sessions with the same player again.

Even so, coming off his first U.S.-based victory at the Tour Championship last month, Fleetwood is a hot commodity and could be a force over the first two days if he’s paired with the right player.

The team can find its’ inner Medinah.

In the past 14 editions of the Ryder Cup, the road team has won exactly twice – both times being Europe on U.S. soil.

It happened in 2004, when a mismanaged U.S. team was torn apart at Oakland Hills. Then it happened again in 2012, when Europe took a four-point deficit into Sunday’s singles matches, then won 8½-3½ to claim the victory.

Donald was not only on that team, he went out in the first match that Sunday and defeated Bubba Watson. McIlroy and Justin Rose, both on this year’s roster, won their matches, too. And Molinari, who’s an assistant this time around, tied Tiger Woods, though with a last-hole concession which proved controversial after the fact.

At some point, this quartet should regale the rest of the team room as to what it was like to win on the road. They should play videos. It should be so ubiquitous that the rest of the Europeans almost want to be trailing entering Sunday, just so they can feel the same exhilaration as that 2012 team.

Whatever it takes to unlock that same passion, the team might need to find it again this week.