Don’t Bank Solely on Playoff Motivation at Wyndham Championship

Like most bettors, I often enjoy a little walk down Narrative Street.

I just try to remind myself to look both ways or risk getting blindsided by the oncoming traffic.

Playing an overarching storyline always helps provide some definition to a hunch – and I won’t lie; it doesn’t hurt for content purposes — but man cannot live on motivation alone.

All of which leads us to this week’s regular season-ending Wyndham Championship, where players will be jostling for a chip and a chair in the upcoming FedEx Cup playoffs, with the top-70 reserving their spot in the Memphis field to kick things off next week.

That could mean more this time than in previous years, as most players won’t again be drawing dead at the Tour Championship. With no more staggered scoring start at the season finale, there’s greater opportunity for someone to sneak into the first field, advance to the last one, then begin on equal footing and have a chance for the overall grand prize.

Even if that serves as inspiration this week, though, don’t expect it to unfold on the leaderboard.

Recent history suggests there’s a reason why so many players outside the top-70 are in that position in the first place.

Last year, a grand total of zero players moved inside the magic number in the final tournament before the playoffs. Sure, there was jostling amongst the top-70 in the points standings, but not a single player earned himself another start with his performance in Greensboro.

The previous year, only Lucas Glover pulled off that trick – and he needed to win the event in order to do it, vaulting from 112th on the list.

It might be a small sample size, but one player making that leap in two years should have us reconsidering the idea of backing too many longshots this week, just because they’ve got a little extra motivation.

Even when the pool was greater, the numbers didn’t usually align.

Prior to 2023, it was the top-125 who would qualify for the first playoff event, but in those final couple of circumstances there still wasn’t much movement.

Three years ago, only two players fared well enough at the Wyndham to punch a ticket to Memphis – Max McGreevy and Tom Kim, and the latter had to win the title.

The year before that, there were just three – Roger Sloan, Chesson Hadley and Scott Piercy.

All of which should serve as a word to the wise – or perhaps those unwise enough to think they can get an edge on the oddsmakers.

The narratives will be abundant this week, with some talented players lingering below the line of demarcation.

A few of ‘em might’ve been considered shocking back in January, but it hasn’t been a season to remember for the likes of Adam Scott, Tom Kim or Max Homa.

Veterans such as Keith Mitchell, Chris Kirk, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Gary Woodland each need a strong week; young up-and-comers Davis Thompson, Ryo Hisatsune, Karl Vilips and Michael Thorbjornsen do, as well; and there’s even a couple of talented twins in the Hojgaard brothers.

A final-round leaderboard featuring just a handful of those above names would be a race worth watching, however that dangling carrot too often only leads to players chasing their tails here.

At an event where the underlying subplot is only marginally less intriguing than the tournament itself, it’s easy to become trapped in the notion that Strokes Gained: Motivation will be the key statistic.

Maybe this will be the year it happens, but if the previous few years have served as any warning, we should refrain from going all-in on that idea.