Corales Puntacuna Championship Picks: Favorites & Longshots

Despite my role as captain of the Keith Mitchell (+1400) bandwagon, I can’t get behind the idea of backing him as a favorite at any tournament, even one with an inferior field such as this. Alex Smalley (+1800) and Ben Griffin (+1800) are both more interesting, especially considering that each of the last two winners (Billy Horschel and Matt Wallace) were 25/1 or better pre-tournament and six of the last seven were inside 50/1.

That probably has less to do with better players stepping up and more to do with a logjam of guys in that top/mid-tier, but I will start my card in this range.

Ryan Fox (+2800) is a proper golfer who’s won around the world in the past. I’ve written recently about his struggles in the past few years to bring this to the PGA Tour, but the svelte version of this Kiwi has been playing some better golf in recent months.

Justin Lower (+3300) is not playing nearly well enough to earn such a short price this week, and yet his T-4 here last year has me wanting to chase, as I’ve long believed he’s going to pick off a win at one of these opposite events someday.

If you look solely at the approach statistics for Henrik Norlander (+4000), you might think you were looking at those of, say Morikawa. He’s gained more than a stroke per round with his irons in six straight, with three finishes of 16th or better during that time.

I love Max McGreevy’s (+4000) game, even if he’s lost a little steam from his hot Florida Swing. He owns the proper skillset to do some damage this week and is the kind of guy who wouldn’t surprise anyone if he picked off a victory at this type of event.

Mac Meissner (+5000) and Jackson Suber (+6600) each make sense at their prices. For whatever reason, this has largely been the domain of veteran players over the years, but the young guys shouldn’t be too wide-eyed at an event devoid of any real stars.

It was reported a few days ago that Taylor Montgomery (+8000) set the course record at Shadow Creek in Las Vegas, where his father is the director of golf. I always like Montgomery’s upside, so I don’t need much more than that to push me in this direction at such a value price.

The pickins get very slim once we hit triple-digits, but I don’t mind a small play on Kevin Chappell (+15000) turning back the clock at a big number.

And while we’re here, let’s also play Austin Cook (+20000), whom I wrote up prior to the Puerto Rico Open and finished T-16 at a gigantic price.

Last one, I promise: Frankie Capan III (+25000) has been really disappointing in his rookie season, missing the cut in five straight, but he’s a guy I loved on the KFT last year and one who owns a ton of offensive firepower.