Butterfield Bermuda Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

We collectively tend to think of the PGA Tour’s fall schedule as an opportunity for the longshots, a time when the right wager on a little-known player could pay off better than a six-team NFL parlay.

Allow me to debunk that myth. 

Sure, it can happen – Rafa Campos returns to this week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship as the defending champion after opening with 300/1 odds last year – but those occasions happen less frequently than you’d believe.

In fact, over the last five years of autumn events – spanning 38 total tournaments – there have been twice as many winners from 18/1 or shorter (12) than from the triple-digit range (6).

Last year proved to be the outlier, with Campos headlining three winners from 200/1 or longer, but each of the other four campaigns have fallen in line with average winner odds in a very similar range.

PGA Tour Fall Events Winner Odds

What’s the explanation here? I think it’s twofold, though there’s connective tissue between each answer.

First, it proves that the most talented players are so much better that removing fellow elite-level competitors simply makes it that much easier for them to win. Ben Griffin entered this past week’s World Wide Technology Championship as co-favorite alongside J.J. Spaun, then showed why he deserved such billing, rolling in birdie putt after birdie putt while other contenders with more weight on their shoulders failed to keep pace.

Second, this is a byproduct of fewer big-name players competing during this time of year. If a majority of the superstars were in these fields, it would push the rank-and-file into that triple-digit pricing range. Largely without those players, though, that rising tide lifts all boats, so to speak, which is why recent winners such as Steven Fisk and Michael Brennan didn’t have odds as long as some would’ve believed.

All of that said, if there’s ever a fall event where we should take a swing further down the board, this is the one, which has proven to be a Bermuda Triangle for bettors over the past couple of years.

In 2023, it was Camilo Villegas who won from 125/1, then last year it was Campos at that massive price. Maybe it’s the breezy conditions which level the playing field; maybe being contested at the end of a long season has an effect; maybe it’s the lack of any players even on the Griffin-level of accomplishment, as the likes of Rico Hoey (+1800) and Kevin Yu (+2000) top this board.

Whatever the case, this is the one that has tended to buck that five-year trend of the better players winning fall titles. Let’s get to some wide-ranging selections on the windswept 6,828-yard Port Royal GC, starting with a player who somehow seems undervalued in this market.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Nico Echavarria (+2500)

There is exactly one player in this week’s field with multiple PGA Tour victories over the last three calendar years. You’d think that little fact alone would make Echavarria one of the favorites here. Throw in the fact that he’s gone T-14 and solo ninth in his last two starts, was T-29 in Bermuda last year, and owns a brilliant record in these fall events, and that would only strengthen this idea. Instead, he opened this week a notch behind Hoey and Yu, which feels like a bit of a misprice across the industry.

I’m a firm believer in the “past performance doesn’t guarantee future results” adage that the betting industry borrowed from the stock market, but I’m also an analytics truther. Over much of the last five years of fall events, proven winners have won – and that’s especially true this year. Give me the guy who isn’t playing with his career on the line. 

Aggressive: Blades Brown (+22500)

I’m going ultra-aggressive with this week’s alternative outright play, and while I’ll list some other options among the top-five/top-10 selections below, there’s reason to believe we could have another Villegas/Campos triple-digit winner. If you don’t know the name – and full objectivity, it’s one of the better names in professional golf – Brown is an 18-year-old phenom who turned pro at 17, bypassed college, and despite having no status at the beginning of the year, gained full Korn Ferry Tour playing privileges for next season.

So far, his PGA Tour performances haven’t wowed anyone, with just three made cuts in seven starts, though if we want to paint an optimistic picture, neither did Tiger Woods’ results when he was this age. On the KFT, however, he was 9-for-14 in making cuts, with a runner-up and three other top-25s this year. It might be asking too much for Blades to make the leap from those results to a PGA Tour win, but his talent is undeniable, and he’s a player we’ll want to back too early rather than too late. At this price, in this type of field, he’s worth a shot. 

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Eric Cole (+700)

If it wasn’t for Echavarria sticking out like a sore thumb, Cole would’ve been listed one category higher in this preview. I’ve believed for a while now that the ROY from a few years ago is going to pluck a victory on the PGA Tour, then maybe even double-down with a bigger one. He won that award at 35 and is 37 now, which I think helps explain why he plays often, plays aggressively, and plays like he doesn’t have any time to waste.

This was a season with plenty of ups and downs for Cole, his results table looking like a roller coaster, but he’s been moving in the right direction lately, with top-10s in two of his last three starts. And while he doesn’t usually play this event, putting on Bermuda greens is in his DNA, and this feels like another one where he should have plenty of success.

Aggressive: Justin Lower (+800)

I say this pretty frequently, and it’s as much to remind myself as to teach anyone else: For as much as we love a statistical deep dive or a relevant narrative, sometimes it pays to not dig too far down the rabbit hole. Lower was T-3 a few weeks ago in Utah and T-31 this past week in Mexico, plus he was T-5 last year in Bermuda. With a very palatable number next to his name, he makes sense in a few different ways for this one. Like Cole, even though I’m listing him for a top-five, I don’t mind an outright play here.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Mark Hubbard (+400)

It hasn’t been a season to remember so far for Hubbard, who hasn’t finished better than T-38 in five fall starts, but few others relish playing in these events like him. He’s posted 68 or better in each of his last nine rounds at Port Royal, leading to a T-3 last year and a T-20 the previous year. This one requires a leap of faith based on his recent play, but the course history is intriguing.

Aggressive: Andrew Putnam (+650)

There simply aren’t too many ceiling plays further down this board. Essentially, if you’ve shown enough upside that we can legitimately think you have a chance to finish inside the top-10, then your odds are likely commensurate with that notion. If nothing else, Putnam at least represents what I was seeking here – when he’s on, he can cash these tickets, and when he’s off, well, we can rip ‘em up by Friday evening. In his last 15 starts, Putnam owns two top-10s and four top-15s, but nothing else better than 40th and six MCs. You’re not going to find a “safe” pick with a decent price, so you’ll have to choose whether to sacrifice safety or cost. If your answer is the former, Putnam provides that upside.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Matt Kuchar (+150)

Don’t look now, but Kuch has been one of the hottest players of the fall, posting top-20 results in each of his three starts so far, including a T-11 last week. I’ll admit that only playing him for another top-20 – especially at a shorter course which should suit his skillset – might be overly conservative, but we’ve got enough longshot plays listed here that I don’t mind a safe one.

Aggressive: David Lipsky (+275)

Speaking of guys who should be licking their chops on a sub-7,000-yard course, Lipsky fits this one very nicely. He was T-13 two years ago and T-9 last year, and while he hasn’t posted a top-20 since July, his last couple of starts have only been one or two shots out of this range. Like some of those listed for finishing position plays above, Lipsky is a very interesting outright option, as well.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Tyler Duncan (+230)

Look, if you’re scrolling this far for top-40 plays at a mid-November event opposite football season, then I owe it to you to offer up some serious darkhorses. I’ll start here with Duncan, who’s never too far from my thoughts on a short track in windy conditions. (Perhaps the No. 1 sign you spend too much time handicapping golf tournaments: You have specific parameters for your favorite Tyler Duncan wagers.) He spent much of this season on the Korn Ferry Tour, and while he rarely reached the ceiling, his floor was noticeably decent, with top-40s in five of his last nine starts.

Aggressive: Austin Cook (+300)

Cook is another with a big number next to his name this week. He might not seriously contend for this title, but he was T-27 in his most recent start two weeks ago and was T-13 in Bermuda two years ago. He doesn’t pop very often, but does tend to hold his own in these KFT-esque fields, especially if we’re just banking on a top-40.

Butterfield Bermuda First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Sam Ryder (+6600)

Last year in Bermuda, Ryder posted a pedestrian 71 in the opening round, only to follow with a Friday-best 62 the next day. So we know there’s a single-round ceiling here. He’s also a guy I’ve liked playing in the FRL market, as he was third in R1 scoring average before last week’s head-scratching 77 dropped him to sixth.

Aggressive: Sami Valimaki (+5000)

Massive props to my CBS Sports colleague Sia Nejad who “guaranteed” on our Early Wedge show last week that Valimaki would cash FRL tickets. Even though he chopped with Nick Dunlap, I’ll give Sia full credit and back him here one week too late, just in case lightning has a chance of striking twice.