BMW PGA Championship Picks: Favorites Plus Longshots

If there’s a surprise on this board, it comes right at the top, where Rory McIlroy isn’t the sole favorite on the heels of his Amgen Irish Open victory, but instead shares those honors with Jon Rahm at +650.

We’d be wise to not stray too far from the bigger names at the DP World Tour’s flagship event, as the winner’s list over the last eight years has included major champions such as Shane Lowry, Danny Willett and Francesco Molinari, and world-class talents in Billy Horschel (twice), Ryan Fox, Tyrrell Hatton and Alex Noren. Even the contenders have largely been bigger names, as McIlroy and Aaron Rai have finished top-10 in the last two editions, while Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood have been inside the top-20 both times.

There’s a part of me that wants to start the card with Rory and end it with Fleetwood (+1000), hoping the stars keep trending in the right direction, but there’s a bigger part of me which hates backing such short numbers, so let’s dive a little deeper.

Since the Travelers Championship in June, Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200) has finished 17th or better in eight of nine starts, including a T-6 and solo fifth in his last two on the DP World Tour. Despite being a U.S. Open champion and having success on American soil, there’s clearly something about a home game which still appeals to the Englishman. He was hardly a no-brainer Ryder Cup selection just a few months ago, but he played his way onto the team via captain’s pick and should be competing with plenty of momentum this week.

Sergio Garcia’s frivolous claim notwithstanding, there really weren’t any snubs on the European side, as Luke Donald picked six seasoned veterans a few weeks ago. That said, it was still surprising to hear last month that Harry Hall (+3300) hadn’t had any recent conversations with Donald and was never fitted for a Ryder Cup uniform. Statistically the second-best putter on the PGA Tour this season – just barely behind Sam Burns – Hall is an up-and-comer who probably deserved more consideration and should have plenty of inspiration to improve upon last year’s T-18 here, when he was just four strokes off the 54-hole lead before closing with a final-round 72.

Speaking of up-and-comers, I’m not sure there was ever a scenario in which Marco Penge (+3500) could’ve played his way onto the European team, but much like Chris Gotterup on the U.S. side, he’s a guy who plays fearlessly and absolutely would’ve won some points had he been invited to Bethpage. Despite two DP World Tour wins this season, I actually think his game is better suited for the PGA Tour, where he’ll presumably play next year, and Wentworth’s reputation as a ball-striker’s course should play right into his hands.

Beyond this point, I’m simply going price-shopping. Hideki Matsuyama (+5000), Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+5500), Brooks Koepka (+6600) and Thomas Detry (+8000) are each capable of winning this tournament from behind that upper tier.

OK, fine. If you really want to nibble at some big numbers, I’ll offer up Eugenio Chacarra (+17500), Jayden Schaper (+20000) and Matthew Jordan (+25000), though each probably makes more sense as a plus-money top-20/40 play.