BMW Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

For as much as the FedEx Cup playoff broadcasts try to make us care about permutations of points totals and the various movements on that “other” leaderboard, it’s difficult for most fans to empathize with the emotions of a multi-millionaire professional golfer who might get an opportunity to compete in all of the free-money signature events next season or instead might resort to needing sponsor’s exemptions.

The intrinsic value of the playoffs has never been about watching live mathematical calculations, despite that narrative being pushed so hard. No, the value has always been – and very likely, will always be – in the format itself, with the best of the best competing against each other to wrap up the season.

Give the people a full tee sheet of big-name pros and it matters way more which ones are contending for a trophy on Sunday afternoon than which ones fall victim to the numbers and don’t advance to the next tourney.

Case in point: Last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.

The back-nine drama in Memphis was palpable, as Tommy Fleetwood kicked away a multiple-shot lead with just a few holes to play, Scottie Scheffler lingered, J.J. Spaun continued his long-putt disappearing act into the playoff and Justin Rose eventually triumphed in a conclusion which had a little bit of everything.

Sure, seeing players such as Rickie Fowler and Kurt Kitayama fare well enough to continue to this week’s BMW Championship and seeing the likes of Jordan Spieth and Wyndham Clark fail to do so all served as a compelling enough subplot, but most observers are watching for the main theme, not some secondary storyline.

All of which brings us to this week’s festivities at Caves Valley in Owings Mills, Md., which first hosted the BMW back in 2021. Playing as a par-72, it yielded a winning total of 27-under-par, so to fix that issue it will be called a par-70 this week, with two of the par-5 holes now par-4s, and the same winning total will only be 19-under, which looks much more palatable to those who lack common sense.

It will play this week to 7,601 yards on the scorecard, a beast by any definition, even if it’s more gentle giant than evil ogre.

If you think this one just might play into the hands of the best drivers off the tee, well, you and I have something in common this week. Let’s get to the picks, starting with the only guy in this field who’s won here before.

BMW Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Patrick Cantlay (+1800)

Three players opened the week tied for the fourth-shortest odds in this field at +1800 and quite honestly, it was a toss-up as to which one I wanted to feature in this section. Ludvig Aberg has gained strokes with both his driver and irons in each of his last seven starts and appears to be on the verge of something big very soon. Xander Schauffele similarly seems poised to put it all together soon. And then there’s Cantlay, who hasn’t quite shown winning form, but isn’t as far off as most seem to believe. Ask a casual golf fan — or even someone who considers themselves closer to diehard — about Tommy Fleetwood’s play this year and they’ll likely respond with something like this: “Well, he obviously hasn’t won, and didn’t play his best at the major championships, but statistically he’s been playing at a very high level throughout the entire season.”

That’s an astute assessment and correct summary. Ask the same fan about Cantlay, though, and they’ll perhaps reply with something to this effect: “He hasn’t won, played terribly at the majors and hasn’t performed up to his standards at all.” The first two are inarguable, as it’s true he hasn’t won and missed the cut at three of the four majors. As for his game, he’s actually been much better than most people realize.

Cantlay currently ranks 10th in SG: Total, which serves as the greatest barometer of performance that we have. That number is better than Ben Griffin, Keegan Bradley, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Andrew Novak, Maverick McNealy and Cameron Young – all players with whom he’s vying for a spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team – not to mention potential European counterparts in Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick and Aberg. While it feels a bit uncomfortable to be myth-busting for a player who should be near the top-five in the world and instead ranks a meager 22nd, it’s still worth pointing out that this year hasn’t been the great downfall that some would like to think for Cantlay.

The winner at Caves Valley four years ago, he’s shown a penchant for returning to the scene of the crime throughout his career. If you’re like me and can’t separate him from the other 18/1 outrights, then I don’t dislike the idea of placing one-third of a unit on each, essentially getting all three for a 6/1 price and simply hoping this isn’t a Scottie or Rory kind of week. 

Aggressive: Taylor Pendrith (+6600)

I thought it was interesting when Tommy Fleetwood last week referred to TPC Southwind as a “first-shot golf course,” which doesn’t really fit the analytics that show it’s more of a classic second-shot course. I can understand his point, though. Put yourself in position off the tee in Memphis and you’ll have a chance to make birdie on any hole. Hit a poor one, though, and bogey is absolutely in play. I suppose you could say that about any course in the world, but I do think the dispersion between birdie and bogey on good drives and poor ones might be greater on that venue.

All of that said, we’ve had exactly one PGA Tour event at Caves Valley and upon first blush, it appears among the most first-shot tracks we’ll see on the schedule. This is based on Cantlay’s six-hole playoff win over Bryson DeChambeau in 2021 and, to an extent, Scott McCarron’s 2017 Senior Players Championship victory, during a year when he ranked 20th on PGA Tour Champions in Total Driving and the two runners-up, Bernhard Langer and Brandt Jobe, were first and 18th, respectively. That admittedly might be digging too deep into the numbers – especially when we’re just a few months removed from Brian Campbell upending Aldrich Potgieter on another first-shot course, but it all has me targeting the guys who hit it long and (somewhat) straight, which is how I landed on Pendrith here.

He currently ranks eighth in SG: Off the tee and top-15 results at Memorial Park, Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village and Renaissance Club all suggest that the Canadian is at his best when banging it into orbit is a bigger advantage than at other venues. If you don’t trust him outright – and I can understand that in this type of elite field – then check out his price for a top-10 this week. 

BMW Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Scottie Scheffler (-275)

Look, on a week when the course is still somewhat of an unknown, when certain players might be overly motivated on the weekend and others might completely lack that vibe, I’m in favor of limiting some variables and there’s no more sensible play these days than the world’s No. 1-ranked player for a placement bet. He’s been top-five in his last two and eight of his last 12, so we’re not going out on too much of a limb here. In fact, at this price, I can’t in good conscience offer up this play as a standalone, so find your favorite other bet this week – an outright on another tour, an MLB game, some preseason NFL, whatever – and use the Scottie top-five as an odds boost for it.

Aggressive: Cameron Young (+400)

I’ve said this a lot over the years, but it might feel more appropriate than ever this year: Professional golf is an undeniably slow-moving game, but its narratives are lightning quick. Maybe we’re collectively all victims of recency bias, our minds seemingly changing with every round we consume. Take Young as the latest example. Two weeks ago, he was saddled with a long-standing rep of a guy who couldn’t get it across the finish line. And now, after a convincing win in Greensboro and a blistering final round in Memphis, it feels like he’s one of the players in this field we can trust more than most. On a course which should suit him, I like him to finish at least one notch higher than last week’s T-6.

BMW Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Chris Gotterup (+230)

If Young is Example 1A of how our minds have changed over the past month, then Gotterup is a close 1B, as he’s parlayed the best golf of his career into some very big rewards, including a spot in this week’s field, an inside track on a spot in next week’s field and a potential spot on this year’s Ryder Cup team. Truth is, even if he hadn’t been playing so well lately, he’s the perfect fit for a bentgrass, Northeast-style massive course – and a big performance here could be the perfect audition for another course which fits that profile in Bethpage Black.

Aggressive: Keegan Bradley (+275)
On Wednesday of the Travelers Championship back in June, I asked Bradley whether the role of U.S. Ryder Cup captain has helped him re-focus his own game, essentially giving him another outlet instead of concerning himself solely with his performance. “For the most part, I’m thinking only about the Ryder Cup,” he said. “I’m looking at the points list. I’m looking at potential pairings. I’m talking to the scouts. I’m talking to the vice captains. We’re talking about strategy, bus ride schedules, media schedules. It is a very nice distraction for me when I’m normally 24/7 thinking about golf. So there is some aspects to this that have helped, I believe.”

Right on cue, he won that event four days later and vaulted himself into the conversation to make his own team. That decision is likely still weighing on him and it’s strangely possible that Keegan the player might need to impress Keegan the captain this week in order to secure a roster spot. There’s never going to be a week during which he’s thinking less about his own golf, so let’s see if that response rings true here.

BMW Championship Top-20 Picks

Bud Cauley (+170) and Thomas Detry (+200)

With the majority of this 49-man field at even-money or shorter to post a top-20 – and with me already handing out the way-too-short Scheffler play above – I felt compelled to find a couple of plus-money bets to merely finish in the top 40 percent here. Cauley was very good at the end in Memphis, when it mattered the most for his advancement into this one, while Detry started strong and tailed off at the end. Your options are pretty limited if you want to find top-20s with any value, but of those at a decent price, these two make the most sense.

BMW Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Kurt Kitayama (+4000)

We’ve witnessed the Full Kitayama this season, as he started the campaign with 11 straight finishes outside the top-30, but has four results of 14th or better in his last five, including that win at the 3M Open. Even during that strong run of play, we’ve seen the extremes, as he’s a guy who can look unbearably average at times, then suddenly wake up the next day and get nuclear-level hot with something in the low-60s. In a shortened field, I don’t mind taking a chance on that variance this Thursday.

Aggressive: Rickie Fowler (+4000)

First, the general public was steamin’ mad that Fowler – one of the more popular players of this generation — was given so many sponsor exemptions into signature events. (Don’t hate the player, hate the game, people.) Then the masses were irate that he parlayed those starts into a berth in the playoffs and even angrier that he advanced to the second event. If he plays well this week, expect even more of an uproar – not that he’ll care at all. It could happen Thursday, as Rickie’s last five openers have all been sub-70 scores, including three at 66 or better.