BMW Championship: Expert Picks This Week

For the second of three PGA Tour playoff events, players head to Caves Valley for the BMW Championship. 

This course hosted the 2021 edition, won by Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. Entering the tournament, Scottie Scheffler (+225) is priced as the favorite by oddsmakers. 

Rory McIlroy (+700) sits second on the board. After McIlroy, six players are priced between +1600 and +2500. 

Included in that group: Cantlay (+1800), Ludvig Aberg (+1800) and Cam Young (+2500). 

Let’s dive into my PGA Expert Picks for the BMW Championship based on golf odds from BetMGM. 

BMW Championship Odds

PGA Expert Picks: BMW Championship

Kurt Kitayama (+4500) to Win the BMW Championship

Above all else, Kitayama should outpace his market rating this week at Caves Valley. 

Kitayama, a recent winner at the 3M Open, arrives in Maryland with brilliant ball-striking metrics of late. 

He ranks eighth and third, respectively, in SG: OTT and SG: APP over his last 24 rounds. He also sits fourth in driving distance and fifth in opportunities gained. 

Over his last four starts, Kitayama posted three top-10s. In Memphis, Kitayama placed T-9th. 

The question with Kitayama this week is whether he can spike with his putter to align with his ball-striking metrics. 

Not since the Valero Texas Open has Kitayama lost strokes from tee to green. The same applies to his SG: APP record. 

The good news: Kitayama gained with the putter in three straight events. If he balloons to a higher output with the putter, he likely offers higher win equity than these odds. 

Patrick Cantlay (+1800) to Win the BMW Championship

The course might play and look different – a longer par 70 vs a par 72 from 2021 – but I still trust Cantlay to maneuver around the track. 

Cantlay finished T-9th in Memphis and has excelled of late with his irons. Over his last two measured events, he gained +11.2 strokes on approach. 

Over his last 50 rounds, Cantlay ranks sixth in SG: APP. He also ranks 17th in SG: OTT, 12th in driving distance gained and eighth in bogey avoidance. 

Much like Kitayama, the question with Cantlay is whether the putter cooperates. Cantlay ranks 30th in SG: Putting over both his last 24 and 50 rounds. 

However, he putts his best on bentgrass greens. In his last 12 rounds on the surface, he ranks 20th for the category. 

The last time Caves Valley hosted this event, Cantlay gained +14.6 strokes putting. 

If he comes close to replicating that and continues his strong ball-striking record, expect another strong week. 

Jhonnatan Vegas (+12500) to Win the BMW Championship

Vegas turned in an under-the-radar ball-striking performance at TPC Southwind. Pair that with distance off the tee that comes into play at Caves Valley, and he could surprise this week. 

The Venezuelan gained +5 strokes on approach in Memphis. That marked his best performance with his irons since the PGA Championship (+4.9). 

But another factor stands out about his Memphis performance. For the season, Vegas ranks 142nd on tour in driving accuracy. 

Last week, he hit 39 of 56 fairways, good for the seventh-best mark in the field. 

If that trend continues, it opens up the possibility that Vegas’ distance carries him to success. For the year, he ranks 39th on tour in driving distance. 

Over his last 24 measured rounds, he ranks sixth in driving distance gained over the field. 

Vegas sits 21st in the 24-round model. Accordingly, he’s worth a shot with only six players priced at the same or worse odds this week.