5 Players To Watch During the Florida Swing

In any sport we’re betting, we always pay attention to the elements.

Think about it: You’ll certainly bet a football game differently if it’s being played in the snow than on a nice sunny day. You’ll make amendments to a baseball wager if the wind is blowing 20 mph out rather than 20 mph in. And you’ll play a tennis tournament – or a specific match – based on whether it’s a hardcourt surface or grass or clay.

There might not be a sport with greater variables than golf. Some players excel on longer courses; some players fare better in the wind; some start licking their chops when it turns into a putting contest.

These weekly alterations are only exacerbated when the entire PGA Tour shifts from one side of the continent to the other.

This week marks the beginning of the four-event Florida Swing – and it should force us to think differently than we did over the first two months of the season.

Just as some players enjoy bigger venues or breezy conditions or birdie-fests, others turn things up a few notches when the schedule hits the Sunshine State, whether from familiarity of the courses or Bermuda grass putting surfaces or simply an overall comfort level.

Let’s take a look at five players who should be on our radar over the next month.

5 Players To Watch During the Florida Swing

Tommy Fleetwood

Like many of his European counterparts, Fleetwood often gets a bump entering the Florida Swing for the simple reason that he doesn’t play very much on the PGA Tour beforehand, opting to start his year on the DP World Tour instead. The signature-event schedule has changed that a bit, and Tommy actually played well in his two West Coast starts, with a T-22 at Pebble Beach and a T-5 at Torrey Pines.

I’d expect him to step on the gas pedal once he reaches the Sunshine State, as he’s played the upcoming four events a total of 21 times and owns eight top-10s. He’s famously still seeking his first career stateside triumph, but there are suggestions it could take place soon and suggestions it should happen here. Though he’s not teeing it up at this week’s Cognizant Classic, Fleetwood will be prominently involved in my selection process for next week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he owns three of those eight top-10s. We could easily add Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry to this list, but they each popped at Pebble, so Fleetwood offers more room for improvement. 

Sam Burns

Mention Burns’ name to your favorite degenerate and it’s likely they’ll respond with his alliterative nickname – Bermuda Burns. You know a guy putts better on a certain type of grass when he’s actually nicknamed after it. It’s been sort of a “meh” kind of start to the year, with a T-8 at the small-field Sentry, followed by four results varying from 22nd to 49th place, but there are reasons to back him on more familiar turf.

Granted, most of Burns’ previous Florida Swing success has come at the Valspar Championship, with back-to-back victories in 2021 and ’22, plus a solo sixth in ’23, but he does own a few other top-10s, as well. The only event of the four where he hasn’t posted one is The Players, but there are reasons to believe he could be ready to make a leaderboard charge at that one in a few weeks. 

Billy Horschel

I had to double- and triple-check this one, but it’s true: Of his eight career PGA Tour victories, none have come in Horschel’s home state of Florida. In fact, he’s rarely even reached his ceiling here, posting just four top-10s in 40 starts, though he does own 27 made cuts, making him more of a floor selection. I think he adds another one at this week’s Cognizant, where he’s had three of those top-10s. For a guy who loves Gator-chomping his way around this area, you know he’d like nothing more than for that ceiling to finally be reached a little closer to home.

Daniel Berger

Any past results from Berger must be affixed with an asterisk due to his multi-year absence while dealing with a lingering back injury. He’s back now and playing well everywhere, which should only have us more optimistic for this week’s Cognizant, where he’s finished top-five on three occasions. All told, Berger owns seven top-15s in these four events.

As I wrote in this week’s betting preview, he remains my favorite outright selection at PGA National, even at a shorter price than he’s been recently. There are some who feel a little additional pressure when playing the proverbial home game, but Boog is the type of player who loves the spotlight and enjoys showing off in front of some familiar faces. 

Lucas Glover

I’m sure someone with a better database than myself can more easily find this out, but I’m not sure there’s an active player who’s competed in more PGA Tour events in the state of Florida than Glover. The 45-year-old claimed his first career victory two decades ago at Disney World in what was then called the Funai Classic. When it comes to the four impending tournaments, he’s played them a total of 66 times, posting 42 made cuts, 20 top-25s and eight top-10s.

It’s no secret that Glover is at his most dangerous when a golf course places a premium on ball-striking and it doesn’t turn into a putting contest. These four events largely do exactly that and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his name on a few leaderboards in the upcoming month.