3M Open Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

The men’s major championship season is officially over, and while it’s been a half-dozen years of this occurrence taking place in mid-July, there are still plenty of observers who bemoan the change, arguing that golf is a summer sport and the four biggest events shouldn’t be finished before the summer is halfway done.

I can appreciate that take, but I disagree with it.

First off, the golf calendar is more streamlined now than it was before. Starting with The Players in March, we have a “big” event in six consecutive months, culminating with the Tour Championship. And no, I’m not trying to compare the FedEx Cup finale with the majors, but it does offer a gathering of the PGA Tour’s best in one place and — more importantly — concludes the campaign so that it doesn’t interfere with the all-encompassing football schedule.

Secondly, the debate that “golf is a summer sport” and should include another major event during this time of year feels capricious. Football is a fall sport; its championship is played in the middle of winter. Hockey is a winter sport; the finals are contested in late-spring. This argument doesn’t hold true in other endeavors — and even if it did, wouldn’t the ability to play golf in the summer months often supersede our desire to sit around and watch it?

My guess is that there won’t be too many barbecues and picnics and, yes, even tee times impacted by this week’s 3M Open schedule, as the PGA Tour opens up to (mostly) the dreamers and journeymen for another two-week stretch before again yielding to the big boys in the playoffs.

As always, that fluidity simply leads to more betting options in these types of events.

Minnesota is the land of 10,000 lakes, and it feels like half of ‘em are on TPC Twin Cities, with water hazards in play on 15 holes. That leads to plenty of volatility at a venue where birdies can come in bunches, but so can the big numbers for those who can’t keep their golf balls dry.

With volatility – in this instance, at least – comes variance, as winners have come from all over the odds board in the six-year existence of this tournament:

• 2019: Matthew Wolff (+12500)
• 2020: Michael Thompson (+12500)
• 2021: Cameron Champ (+12500)
• 2022: Tony Finau (+1400)
• 2023: Lee Hodges (+8000)
• 2024: Johnattan Vegas (+8000)

That’s an astounding average of 92/1 pre-tournament odds for winners here – even with Finau triumphing as a favorite three years ago.

And that isn’t all they have in common. Four of these winners – Wolff, Champ, Finau and Vegas – can be categorized as bombers off the tee. While Thompson and Hodges don’t fit this profile and runners-up such as J.T. Poston, Kevin Streelman, Adam Long and Collin Morikawa didn’t either, there’s still some rationale behind believing that all other aspects considered equal, length is a bigger advantage on this course than it is on many others – not only off the tee, but in the amount of approach shots from 175-225 yards, as well.

With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s selections, beginning with a guy who fits a narrative we’ve seen throughout this season.

3M Open Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Wyndham Clark (+2500)

At one point in the Florida Swing, Viktor Hovland rated his swing as a zero on a scale of 1-10 before winning the Valspar Championship soon afterward. Matt Fitzpatrick was admittedly lost for the first four months of the year, but now has four top-10s in his last seven starts. Professional golf is an unrelentingly slow sport – pace of play was once again in the news at last week’s Open Championship – and yet, the storylines move quicker than we’d ever think. (Remember: Just three months ago, many were hypothesizing that Rory McIlroy had usurped Scottie Scheffler as the world’s best player, with no less an authority than Phil Mickelson suggesting that Scheffler wouldn’t win this year. Two major titles later, we’re collectively trying not to make Tiger Woods comparisons as we all sheepishly make those very Tiger Woods comparisons.) 

There’s been a trend this year of players needing to hit rock-bottom before they bubble up to the surface and get their sea legs again. Clark might very well be the latest example – and yet, the oddsmakers are treating him like he’s still struggling. Following a T-11 at the Genesis Scottish Open, the 2023 U.S. Open champion opened with a 76 at Royal Portrush, only to follow with totals of 66-66-65 to finish in a share of fourth place. And just in case you’re thinking that’s only on overseas links-style courses, he threw a decent T-17 on the board at the Travelers Championship last month. This comes on the heels of a stretch where he didn’t fare better than 50th in five straight events, pummeling signage at Quail Hollow and busting lockers at Oakmont. 

Those temper tantrums notwithstanding, something has clearly turned around for Clark. Behind Sam Burns (+1600) and Maverick McNealy (+1800) on the board, it’s reasonable to think he should be similarly priced and we’re getting a bargain here. He hasn’t played TPC Twin Cities since 2022, but does have a T-5 on his resume here and should be a proper course fit now that he’s seemingly found his game.

Aggressive: Will Gordon (+17500)

Based on those big prices that have won here in the past, I was looking for a massive longshot in the outright market and Gordon fit the bill. It was last month when he posted a pair of 69s in the first two rounds of the John Deere Classic, then had to wait around on a Friday afternoon to see if he’d make the cut and keep his card in the final start on a medical exemption. He did – narrowly! – and while he finished just T-51 that week and MC’d the next week, he’s fresh off results of T-14 and T-23 during the last two opposite-field events. 

Freed up from that previous stress, his recent performances and ability to mash it off the tee should serve him well, even if they haven’t in the past. I’ll throw a little caveat emptor on this selection, considering he’s missed the cut in all four prior 3M Open starts, but the number is too big to ignore and just one of a handful of 80/1 or bigger prices that I’ll dart-throw at this one.

3M Open Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Max Greyserman (+650)

It’s still very early in Greyserman’s PGA Tour career, but so far he’s shown hints that he could be a course-horse type, meaning he might continue playing his best golf on some of the same tracks each year. That’s good news for his impending two-week stretch, as he was runner-up at both the 3M and the Wyndham Championship last year. Add to that another runner-up finish in his most recent stateside start at the Rocket Classic before a pair of MCs overseas and there’s reason to think Greyserman will pick up where he left off when he was last in the U.S.

Aggressive: Erik van Rooyen (+1400)

With plenty of Minnesota connections – from going to college here to marrying into a family of nearby residents – I believe I’ve played EVR for an outright each year he’s played here, though with terrible results, as he’s posted a T-58 and three MCs in four starts. I suppose there shouldn’t be much reason for optimism after that, but a runner-up finish last week – his second of the season – has me backing him in this market and probably taking a small stab as an 80/1 outright, too.

3M Open Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Davis Thompson (+333)

For a long time, I couldn’t quit Keith Mitchell. I believed he had the stuff to be a top-20 type of player in the world and backed him to win more than I’d probably like to admit. I’m proud to have faced my problem and moved on – though if I’m honest, I still think he can reach that level and when he wins again and I don’t back him, I’ll be sick about it – and I now have a similar Thompson problem, in that I think he’s loaded with talent and tends to look about as nervy as Mitchell in high-pressure situations. 

Case in point: The recent John Deere, when he parlayed a 54-hole lead into a T-18 finish. I’ll (try to) stay away from him in the outright market for a little while, but on a course which suits his strengths, I can’t completely ignore him here. I like the idea of playing him in the top-10 market – and might like it even better if he’s gotta back-door this play instead of holding on in the final round.

Aggressive: Jesper Svensson (+550)

I’m largely ignoring last week’s Open Championship results, considering Royal Portrush and TPC Twin Cities each have 18 holes in the ground and the similarities pretty much end there. That said, it’s not like a good performance at that one should scare us away at this one. Svensson finished T-16, posting a bogey-free 66 in the final round. He once again showed he’s among the most underrated drivers of the golf ball around, ranking third in the field off the tee last week and is now 10th for the season. The outright number of 66/1 is enticing, but I still think he’s more of a floor play than a ceiling.

3M Open Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Kurt Kitayama (+175)

If Davis Thompson is the one I can’t leave alone, then Kitayama is the one I’m aware is bad for me. Early in the year, his stats looked solid, but his results were pretty poor and his price was mind-numbingly too short. I’ll probably get sucked into his 40/1 outright number for this one and regret it as soon as I click it, but I do like the top-20 play, as he’s cashed these tickets in his last two starts and finished 22nd or better in four of his last seven. A share of sixth place in his lone 3M appearance last year should have us optimistic for a repeat performance.

Aggressive: Luke Clanton (+250)

Checking in on Clanton’s odds last year, when he played eight PGA Tour events as an amateur and finished top-10 in half of ‘em, is a wild ride:

• U.S. Open: 1000/1
• Rocket Classic: 80/1
• John Deere Classic: 40/1
• ISCO Championship: 11/1
• 3M Open: 30/1
• Wyndham Championship: 60/1
• Procore Championship: 25/1
• RSM Classic: 50/1

I have no data on this and no idea whether anyone else can figure it out, but I have a hard time believing that any player in the current era has ever been a pre-tournament fave and 1000/1 longshot in the same year, even if those were in a major and opposite-field event, respectively. In any case, Clanton hasn’t yet come close to those 2024 results since he’s turned pro, but at twice the outright number that he was last year, I don’t mind taking a chance in a few different markets that he’s ready to turn things around.

3M Open Top-40 Pick

Aggressive: Rico Hoey (+110)

It’s tough to say whether it’s a testament to the rest of his game that Hoey is posting strong results despite remaining a terrible putter or whether it’s maddening that he’s coming closer while statistically rolling it worse than anyone else on the PGA Tour this season. The truth is probably a little of both – or maybe a lot of both. With Happy Gilmore 2 hitting the small screen this week, here’s hoping Hoey channels some of that mojo. You know, “Uh-oh, Rico learned how to putt…” The good news is that he’s proficient enough from tee to green that he can still cash top-40 props, as he’s done in four of his last five starts, including a T-8 at last week’s Barracuda Championship.

3M Open First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Thorbjorn Olesen (+6600)
Aggressive: Byeong Hun An (+9000)

I’m pairing these two together as guys who make way too much sense at 80/1 and 100/1, respectively, in the outright market, other than the fact that each always seems to perform better than he fares on the leaderboard. It’s not too hard to like either one, though I’m more confident either can keep it together for a single-round investment than a full tournament. Added bonus: The last time I listed Olesen for an outright play was at the RBC Canadian Open, when he captured FRL honors, then finished in a share of 36th place.