3M Open Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

The major championship season is over for 2024, but the golf calendar and golf betting never ends.

All of which leads to a diametrically opposed venue change from last week, as the traveling circus makes the circuitous journey from rough and rugged Royal Troon to a bomber’s paradise in Minnesota at TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open.

As of this writing, some of the main protagonists from The Open remain in this field, offering us an opportunity to back that form or fade their energy, which undoubtedly must be running low after such a mentally exhausting experience.

Justin Rose and Billy Horschel, each of whom finished in a share of second place, are in the field. So is Sam Burns, who vaulted himself into the penultimate pairing on Sunday, then posted a final-round 80 to finish outside the top-30. And Thriston Lawrence, the little-known South African who acquitted himself well in the spotlight, taking a lead into the back-nine and closing in fourth place.

We can even point to Nick Dunlap, who won the alternate-field Barracuda Championship, and has remained in this one, as well.

Despite 27 water hazards and water in play on 15 holes here, big hitters have enjoyed an advantage over precision players, with four of the five previous winners – Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, Tony Finau and Lee Hodges – categorized as just that. The lone non-basher to prevail, Michael Thompson in 2020, authored an iron and putting clinic for the ages. They’ve also all gone low, with winning scores between 15- and 24-under during the previous half-decade.

As such, I’ll be weighing power and birdie average in making this week’s picks.

3M Open Outright Picks

Sam Stevens (+5500)

With the top of this board consumed by a group of players making a groggy, bleary-eyed journey back from Scotland, I’ll move on to the next tier for many of this week’s selections. That starts with Stevens, who owns the type of form/history intersection that we like to see.

He’s finished inside the top-40 in eight of his last 11 starts, including a T-29 at the Barracuda last week, and top-15 in four of those. Last year, he was T-10 at this one, posting four consecutive rounds in the 60s, which is almost a prerequisite for contending here. I like that he hits it long enough (31st in driving distance) and is trending in the right direction.

Kurt Kitayama (+5000)

I’ll normally offer a play in each category for both conservative and aggressive bettors, as I’ve done below, but my two favorite outrights happen to own the same number this week. Yes, Kitayama competed at The Open, which goes against what I’ve already written, but a 41st-place result shouldn’t have been as taxing on him as those who were in contention through the entire weekend. 

Last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational winner has been remarkably consistent this year, posting 14 top-40s in 18 starts. The lofty floor, though, hasn’t led to much of a ceiling, as he only owns just a single top-10. So, why offer him for a ceiling play here? Well, we’ve seen that at his best he’s capable of beating a much better field than we have this week and his ball-striking numbers at Royal Troon (third in SG: Approach) suggest he’s about to turn it up a few notches.

3M Open Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Jhonattan Vegas (+1100)

I’ll admit that “conservative” probably isn’t the best delineation for this selection of a player who hasn’t posted a top-five in more than two injury-riddled years, but Vegas has done it here before, finishing runner-up to Champ in 2021, the last time he played this event. 

He’s starting to show signs that his comeback is about to go full-circle, with top-30s in each of his last three events, posting his usual strong numbers off the tee in all three. I was hoping for a better outright number than 60/1, as it appears the oddsmakers have noticed his recent run, but I still think it can be a title contention kind of week for Vegas.

Aggressive: Jake Knapp (+1100)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Young player wins early in the season, then struggles to recreate that success, posting a wide array of results before finding his best stuff and claiming another title. Alright, so the comparisons between Dunlap and Knapp might end there, but the story isn’t a new one. We’ve seen plenty of scenarios over the years where a talented player wins a tournament, then disappears for a while, either enjoying the spoils or grinding too hard to feel ‘em again. 

Since his Mexico Open victory five months ago, Knapp has twice as many MCs (four) as top-10s (two), but a T-24 last week suggests he could be on the road to finding his best stuff again and this course should certainly suit him.

3M Open Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Tom Hoge (+333)

Perhaps it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that Hoge could only parlay his third-place finish at the Travelers Championship into a missed cut at the Scottish Open and T-72 at The Open. He doesn’t seem like a player whose game travels, which might be one reason we should invest in the North Dakota native in Minnesota, the closest thing he’ll ever get to a home game. 

His iron play has once again been world-class this year, the Scottish being his lone event where he’s lost strokes to the field, as he continues to rank second on the PGA Tour. I’m still a bit reluctant to believe the short game/putting can lead to a victory, but the approach play keeps his floor extremely high on a weekly basis. 

Aggressive: Hayden Buckley (+900)

Past performance isn’t a predictor of future success, however, there’s reason to believe that Buckley’s seventh-place finish at the Barracuda, just his second in the past 15 months, could lead to another. His iron play last week was far and away his best of the year and a top-10 when losing strokes with the wedges and putter should indicate that there’s plenty of room for improvement. He was T-26 in his only previous 3M start two years ago.

3M Open Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Keith Mitchell (+140)

I just can’t quit Mitchell, a player I’ve long believed owns all the tools necessary to become a top-20 type of guy, yet who’s seemed stuck in neutral for the past couple of years. Even if I was to quit him, it wouldn’t be this week, as he’s posted fifth-place results in each of the last two editions of the 3M on a course that should suit him as well as any. His outright number of 30/1 is still comically short, but playing the floor should make sense.

Aggressive: Seamus Power (+275)

Much like investing in the stock market, a large part of golf betting is simply identifying value and trying to buy the dip. Power might be close to the top-10 when it comes to talent level in this week’s field, but he’s somewhere outside the top-30 on the odds board, despite four top-20s in his last nine starts. I don’t mind an outright play at an inflated 80/1, but top-20 is a very attainable goal.

3M Open First-Round Leader Bets

Conservative: Erik van Rooyen (+5000)

The initial play here was Aaron Rai and his opening-round scoring rank of seventh on the PGA Tour this season, but his late-Monday withdrawal left an opening here, so I’ll use this spot for a guy with Minnesota ties who’s never been able to figure out TPC Twin Cities.

In three starts here, van Rooyen owns a pair of MCs wrapped around a T-58, but he has opened with 68s in his last two openers here and has posted Thursday scores of 67 or better in three of his last six starts.

Aggressive: S.H. Kim (+9000)

Here are Kim’s opening totals in his last 11 starts: 68-68-68-69-66-70-69-72-66-67-65. If you don’t want to count ‘em all up, that’s nine sub-70 scores in those 11. And if you really don’t want to do any math, I’ll tally it up and tell you that he’s posted an opening-round scoring average of exactly 68 during that time. His four-round results aren’t much to get excited about, but there’s a ton of reason to back him in a single-round investment.