There was a time, not so long ago, when the end-of-year Hero World Challenge felt special, as a select number of the world’s best players would convene for one final competitive venture, without the nuisance of non-superstars getting in the way.
These days, this week’s tournament in the Bahamas just feels like a limited-field signature event, the kind which litter the annual schedule, likening the PGA Tour to the Ice Capades, where the same performers simply travel from city to city, one big caravan putting on a show for the masses.
This was my main criticism of LIV Golf when it first started — that a closed shop of small-field events featuring the same players every week would become incessantly redundant. A few years later, I believe I’ve been proven right.
And yet, despite all of the PGA Tour’s tribulations over LIV, the powers-that-be are seemingly going to use that business model as a blueprint for its own operation in the future.
New PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp — straight out of the executive offices of the NFL, where a limited schedule has helped that league become the behemoth on the U.S. sporting landscape — recently revealed that a calendar of 20-something events featuring the best of the best each week is at least on the table for 2027 and beyond.
“If you are going to compete with football in this country for media dollars and attention, it’s a really hard thing to do,” Rolapp said during CNBC’s CEO Forum. “The majority of golf is played in the summer and gets people’s attention, so looking at schedules to help optimize that calendar is certainly something we talk about.”
If social media has taught us anything (wait for the punchline), it’s that we can dislike an idea yet still understand its purpose and realize why it makes sense.
While I personally pine for the days of 156-man fields and leaderboard chaos, I’m not sure the PGA Tour isn’t a better product over a five-month period when all of the elite players are competing against each other in every tournament. I’m not a big NASCAR guy, but I know enough to grasp the notion that you don’t have to check an entry list before each race, because drivers don’t take a week off.
Could that model work for the PGA Tour? I’ll at least take a wait-and-see approach here, with two caveats: One is that I’d like to see satellite events – call ‘em alternate-field or opposite-field events, of which there were five during the season which just ended – for all of the other players. Call it the best of both worlds. If you want to watch the superstars, there they are; if you want to watch guys with interesting backstories who are trying to change the trajectory of their lives, that should similarly exist. The other, which is directly related, is that I want to see an entry way for those other players. The PGA Tour needs guys like Brian Campbell, who was the shortest hitter this season, but won two events. Rolapp and his cabinet need to find a path for the have-nots to become the haves – especially if that happens instantaneously during the season.
Back to the Hero, where once again Tiger Woods will preside over a field of 20 players, though perhaps it’s a sign of what’s to come in that while Scottie Scheffler will defend his title, once again Rory McIlroy is not in attendance, nor is Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg or the injured Justin Thomas.
That means there’s some value on the board if you decide to bet against Scheffler at a minuscule +165 price. I was on him here last year, but without a competitive rep since the Ryder Cup, I’ll bet on the field being just slightly leveled and look a bit further for some more palatable numbers this week.
Hero World Challenge Betting Options
Keegan Bradley (+1600)
It was about halfway through Friday’s latest iteration of the Skins Game when the first (and not the last) of my buddies sent this text message: “See, this is why Keegan needed to be a playing captain!”
It’s either a sign of maturity or insouciance that I replied to each of these texts with a placid thumbs up instead of offering an obvious explanation as to why beating Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry in a late-November Silly Season event is way different than September, when it means everything.
We did learn something during the Skins Game, though: If you need to purchase a gift for someone during this holiday season, make sure to use Amazon. What we didn’t learn — though some would glean — is that Bradley is on the warpath to play some inspired golf after the U.S. lost at Bethpage.
Sorry, but I’m not taking any useful information from his “victory” in that event … and yet, I’m still picking him here.
It’s been a few years, but I’ve covered my share of Hero events and let’s just say the boys aren’t exactly grinding in between casino trips and yacht parties. I want a dude who’s going to at least approach this week with some modicum of seriousness — and perhaps more than in previous years, this field is replete with those who fit the profile, from Aaron Rai to Hideki Matsuyama to Corey Conners to Alex Noren.
All of which means the parties might not be as much fun, but the golf could be better, as these guys know there’s plenty of money and points at stake even during a week when the golf feels like a sideshow.
That brings me back to Bradley, who doesn’t do frivolity very well. If there’s a club in his hand, he wants to win, whether he’s playing against MJ and 11 other guys in 11 other carts back home or here in the Hero. I’ll take Keegan to at least put another silver lining on his awful autumn — and yes, if it happens, I expect to get a few more text messages about how the non-playing captain could’ve made the difference a few months ago.
Akshay Bhatia (+2200)
Throughout the fall portion of the schedule, I’ve been tempted on more than one occasion to play Wyndham Clark at a big number in relation to his talent level, though such ideas have yet to pay off. I’m still intrigued by the 2023 U.S. Open winner at 45/1, which is the biggest price in this field, but I’m getting wiser to the notion that chasing Clark losses won’t reap any benefits until sometime next year.
Instead, I’ll look to Bhatia, who tends to play some of his best golf on seaside resort courses.
As of the time of this writing – 10:05 a.m. ET on Monday morning, to be exact – I haven’t read any other industry takes on this week’s event, but I’ve got to believe that I won’t be the only one to point out that Bhatia tends to play well on these types of venues.
Which is actually really strange. I mean, think back to the times you’ve played your best golf. Maybe those uncommonly low scores came on lengthy courses where you could spray it. Maybe they were on shorter, tree-lined tracks where your precision was on point. Maybe they happened on fast greens. Or slow ones. Maybe they took place in heat, or in cold, or in rainy weather. (Pro tip: If you’re ever playing me for money, press every bet at the first sign of a raindrop and you’ll be collecting in no time.)
There are very few of us, however, who would answer a question about the similarities of our best rounds with something like this: “Oh yeah, I usually play my best golf on seaside resort courses.” In fact, even if that was the case, you might not notice it about yourself – though these are the things we know about Bhatia, which is just another reason why, as I often say, betting makes us more educated about the product we’re consuming.
Of course, it’s not as if Akshay simply shows up at seaside resort courses and plays better. These places are often susceptible to breezy conditions and therein lies some rationale as to why he’s enjoyed success here. I’ve had caddies and others within the game’s inner circle tell me that nobody works the ball both ways with better skill than Bhatia, which is a nice arsenal to have when others struggle to counteract the wind.
Last year, he finished in a share of fourth place here and while he hasn’t played much in the past few months, he does have results of 13th or better in three of his last five starts.
There’s reason to believe next season could be a breakout campaign for Bhatia, who owns two PGA Tour victories, but at the ripe old age of 23 is still seeking a “signature” win, if not a signature win in the most literal sense. This could be the start of it all.
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