- The Senators are a 1.5-goal home favorite against the Maple Leafs.
- The Maple Leafs have lost 13 of their last 14 playoff series closeout games.
- My Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction is the Maple Leafs moneyline.
With a chance to level the series at home, the Senators host the Maple Leafs on Thursday.Â
Ottawa captured a convincing 4-0 win in Game 5 and now trails in the series 3-2. That comes after dropping each of the first three games.Â
Across the entire season series, Ottawa owns a 5-3 edge over the Leafs with three wins during the regular season.Â
Bet on Senators vs. Maple Leafs and other NHL matchups with up-to-date NHL odds.Â
Senators vs Maple Leafs Odds, NHL
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline: -118
- Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline: -102
- Game Spread: Senators -1.5 (+220), Leafs +1.5 (-275)
- Over/Under: 5.5 Goals (+100/-120)
Maple Leafs vs Senators: Prediction
Based on one historically profitable NHL betting system, the Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction for Thursday’s game is the Maple Leafs Moneyline (-102).Â
Despite their weak record in potential closeout games – 13 losses in the last 14 – Toronto fits the profile of a team that ends its losing streak on Thursday.
Essentially, the theory is to back experienced playoff underdogs off a loss against teams off a win.Â
Since 2006, road teams in conference games off a loss against teams off a win are 212-186 SU, assuming they reached the playoffs the previous season.Â
Those team have simultaneously excelled recently, going 40-25 over the last three seasons.Â
But where those team excel further is when they’re facing a favorite that failed to reach the playoffs the previous season.Â
Sample the entire timeframe with that factor added, and bettors will find those teams are 56-32 SU.Â
Just over the previous three seasons, those teams against opponents that failed to reach the playoffs are 6-2 SU.Â
One final element worth considering: these teams excel off bigger defeats against opponents off big wins.Â
Shrink the initial sample down to teams off a three- or four-goal loss against opponents off a three- or four-goal win: 54-49 SU, including 14-5 over the last 19 games.Â
As a result, I like backing the Leafs to close out the series on Thursday. Â
Betting Senators vs. Maple Leafs: NHL Public Betting
| Team | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | 70% | 80% | 49% | 45% |
| Senators | 30% | 20% | 51% | 55% |
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