NHL Hart Trophy Odds: Who Is Favored To Win NHL MVP?

Despite what some details within this article may suggest, we’re still relatively early into the 2025-26 NHL season. 

In about six months, we’ll be celebrating an NHL player who did enough in the regular season to earn himself the league’s MVP award, the Hart Memorial Trophy. 

Even though the season is only a month and change through, we already have a minus-odds player in the odds for the Hart Trophy. Here’s a look at who that player is and the other contenders who are going to try to catch up to the current leader. 

NHL Hart Trophy Odds

2025-26 Hart Trophy Favorite

Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche (-160)

Colorado forward Nathan MacKinnon has earned the surprising standing of being a minus-odds favorite to win this year’s Hart Trophy. 

There should be some extra emphasis on the word earned in that sentence because MacKinnon currently has 46 points through 26 games played this season and is a significant reason why the Avalanche are head and shoulders above every team in the league right now. 

Those 46 points are comprised of 22 goals and 24 assists. Additionally, he has a +32 plus/minus rating right now. 

Colorado currently has 44 team points and a 19-1-6 record, both the best marks in the league. 

MacKinnon has already won the Hart Trophy for his performance in the 2023-24 regular season. He finished that year with 140 points in 82 games played. 

If he plays a full 82 again this season and maintains his current pace, he could finish the 2025-26 season with 145 points. 

MacKinnon, because of his own production and his team’s success, is as strong a candidate through the first quarter of the season as we’ve had in recent years. He should remain at or near the top of the odds leaderboard throughout the year. 

2025-26 Hart Trophy Contenders

Connor McDavid, C, Oilers (+300)

Oilers center Connor McDavid is still a top contender for the Hart Trophy despite a poor start for Edmonton and, to some extent, for him personally. 

McDavid has 11 goals and 25 assists through 27 games played this season. 

The Oilers are faring far worse than expected with an 11-11-5 record and 27 points on the season. That record has them third from the bottom in the Pacific Division. San Jose and Seattle both have better records than the Oilers. 

McDavid, as the team leader and best player in Edmonton, has to shoulder some of the blame for the team’s poor record. But his stats are still some of the best in the league. His 36 points are tied with Anaheim’s Leo Carlsson for the fourth-best in the league. 

He also has the second-most assists in the league, behind Sharks center Macklin Celebrini. 

McDavid started the season lagging behind his usual pace in goal scoring, and it still hasn’t picked up. He’s currently on pace to finish the year with 33 goals, which would be higher than his past two seasons but lower than his prime marks of 64 or 44 goals scored in 2023 and 2022, respectively. 

I suspect that McDavid is so high on the odds leaderboard mainly because of his stature and past performance. I don’t view him as nearly as strong a contender as MacKinnon and others are.

Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Wild (+1500)

Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov had a lot to live up to when he became the highest-paid player in league history this summer. So far, this season, he’s made a decent case to support his high salary. 

Through 27 games played, Kaprizov has 17 goals and 14 assists and a +1 plus/minus rating. Those 14 goals have him tied with Connor Bedard for the fourth-most in the league. 

Kaprizov’s Wild have a 15-7-5 record with 35 team points and are sitting in third place in the Central Division behind Colorado and Dallas. 

Kaprizov has never finished in the top five of voting for the Hart Trophy. His highest finish was for the 2021-22 season when he finished seventh and received two first-place votes. 

In my view, Kaprizov’s goal scoring would have to increase a lot for him to catch up with MacKinnon and become a favorite for the Hart. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that’s going to happen.