NFL Week 16 Biggest Matchup Advantages

The Week 16 NFL slate features a couple of notable mismatches on both sides of the ball. 

In order to help evaluate NFL odds this week, I’ve outlined the (potential) mismatch opportunities. 

To guide this exercise, I source DVOA data from ftnfantasy.com. To define a mismatch, I look for 20 spot differences for a unit. 

NFL Week 16 Matchup Advantages

Colts vs 49ers Prediction: Jonathan Taylor Continues His Success

Indianapolis remains second in rush offense DVOA after Taylor cleared 80 yards against Seattle. Now, he gets a much easier test on extended rest. 

San Francisco ranks 26th in rush defense DVOA. While they’ve played two of 14 games against the top-ranked Rams offense, the rest of their schedule is pretty easy against the run. 

For Taylor, the 49ers offer his easiest test of the season. On four prior occasions, he faced a team 20th or worse – Chargers, Falcons and Titans twice – and never finished under 90 yards. 

The potential hiccup: both starting tackles could miss Monday’s game for Indy. 

Texans vs Raiders Prediction: Raiders Offense Struggles Again

Everyone knows the Texans defense is amazing. Entering Week 16, the unit ranks second in defensive DVOA. 

What’s amazing is that Houston achieved that feat against the third-hardest set of offenses. Now, the team gets its easiest test of the season. 

Tennessee is the easiest opponent for Houston. In two games, the Titans offense scored 13 points and zero points, with the latter coming at Houston. 

Vegas, away from home, has failed to crack 10 points in four of its last five games. All five saw the team finish under 14.5 points. 

Dolphins vs Bengals Prediction: De’Von Achane Excels at Home

It’ll be Quinn Ewers instead of Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday. That change will attract significant attention, but the advantage will benefit Miami’s rushing attack. 

Miami ranks sixth in rush offense DVOA, while the Bengals rank 30th in rush defense DVOA. 

At home, Achane faced a comparable Buffalo run defense. He rushed for 174 yards on 22 carries with two touchdowns. 

Not since Week 1 has Cincinnati allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards. 

NFL Week 16: Positive & Negative Regression Notes

• Rams vs Seahawks presents strength on strength. The Rams lead the NFL in rush offense DVOA, while the Seahawks lead the NFL in rush defense DVOA. However, I expect some negative regression for Seattle. The defense has achieved that record playing only three games against top-10 units. All three opposing backs notched at least 80 rushing yards. 
• One factor concerns me about New England’s viability as a dog in Ravens vs Patriots. The defense posted incredible metrics early in the year as a rush defense. Since losing Milton Williams, the team has fallen to 18th in rush defense DVOA. Not since Week 9 has the team allowed under 100 rushing yards. Now they get a Ravens offense that ranks eighth in rush offense DVOA. For New England, it’s the defense’s hardest opponent since Week 9 (Atlanta). 
• Watch out for the Falcons offense on Sunday against the Cardinals. Drake London might return for Atlanta, which carries an 18-spot advantage over Arizona’s rush defense DVOA rating. Additionally, Kirk Cousins faces another zone-heavy coverage scheme like last week against Tampa Bay. Plus, Arizona ranks 31st in DVOA against tight ends, meaning Kyle Pitts could produce a second straight big game. 
• I’m so fascinated to watch Pittsburgh’s offense against Detroit’s banged-up defense. The Steelers have now scored 27 and 28 points over the last two games. By EPA per play, the unit ranks seventh. Detroit has played three straight games against top-8 DVOA offenses, but simultaneously allowed 27 to the Giants, an inferior offense to Pittsburgh for the season.