NFL Week 15 Biggest Matchup Advantages

The Week 15 NFL slate features a couple of notable mismatches on both sides of the ball. 

In order to help evaluate NFL odds this week, I’ve outlined the (potential) mismatch opportunities. 

To guide this exercise, I source DVOA data from ftnfantasy.com. To define a mismatch, I look for 20 spot differences for a unit. 

NFL Week 15 Matchup Advantages

49ers vs Titans Prediction: San Francisco Offense Shines Off Bye

San Francisco returns from a bye week ranked sixth in offensive DVOA. They’ve achieved that feat while facing the second-hardest set of opposing defenses. 

Now the offense gets an easier test. Tennessee ranks 28th in defensive DVOA and just surrendered 29 points to an anemic Browns offense. 

Only once all season has San Francisco played one of the six-worst defenses by DVOA. In a trip to the Giants, Kyle Shanahan’s offense scored 34 points. 

This week, oddsmakers have San Francisco’s team total set at 28.5 points. The 49ers have cleared that number only twice, but Tennessee has allowed over 28.5 six times. 

Texans vs Cardinals Prediction: Arizona Struggles to Move the Ball

Arizona ranks 22nd in offensive DVOA, having played the eighth-hardest set of defenses. It gets no easier on Sunday as they face the second-ranked Texans defense by DVOA. 

Last week, the Cardinals faced a third-ranked Rams defense and scored 17 points. Ten of those points came before halftime. 

Arizona’s team total is a measly 16.5 points at Houston. If there’s hope for Arizona, it’s that they’ve cleared that benchmark in every Jacoby Brissett start. 

Houston has kept seven of 13 opponents under that benchmark. Since Week 8, four of seven have stayed under 16.5 against Houston. 

Jaguars vs Jets Prediction: New York’s Offense Takes a Step Back

It’s still unknown who will play quarterback for the Jets on Sunday. Tyrod Taylor exited Sunday’s game against Miami and Justin Fields is still in limbo. 

Whoever leads the Jets into Jacksonville faces a difficult task. Jacksonville ranks seventh in defensive DVOA and sixth in rush defense DVOA. 

New York ranks 28th in total offensive DVOA and is slightly better on the ground. The Jets rank 23rd in rush DVOA vs. 28th through the air. 

It’s a low total for a reason – 41.5, as of Wednesday afternoon – with New York’s team total set at 14.5 points. 

The Jets have stayed under 14.5 points six times in 14 games, including three times over the last five. 

Jacksonville has kept only four opponents under 14.5 points. However, two of those successes came in the previous four games. 

Eagles vs Raiders Prediction: Vegas Struggles on Offense

Jalen Carter’s presence likely impacts Vegas’ offensive output here. If he plays, it’s a nightmare mismatch for the Raiders. 

Vegas ranks 31st in offensive DVOA, while the Eagles rank eighth in defensive DVOA. Total for the game is a measly 38 points, implying a 13.5-point team total for Las Vegas. 

Pete Carroll’s team has finished under 13.5 points five times and under 14.5 six times. 

Philadelphia has allowed three straight opponents to clear this number. Before that, the defense allowed seven to Green Bay and nine to Detroit. 

Remarkably, this game offers Philadelphia’s defense its easiest test of the entire season. Accordingly, an argument exists that Carter’s potential absence doesn’t matter. 

Vegas has played six games this season against top-10 DVOA offenses. Only twice did the team score over 14.5 points, with 21 combined points in two road games (14 and seven). 

NFL Week 15: Positive & Negative Regression Notes

• As noted in my NFL Week 15 Expert Picks, I like this week as a positive regression spot for the Cardinals’ defense. The unit ranks 23rd in non-adjusted DVOA, but rises to 18th after opponent adjustments. By cumulative offensive DVOA, Houston marks only the second opponent for Arizona this season carrying between a -2% and -8% rating. At home, they held Carolina to 22 points, including nine in the first three quarters. 
• Sunday could prove a rough outing for Detroit’s defense. The defense, missing a number of key pieces, plays its fifth game against an offense 10th or better in pass offense DVOA. In those four games, the defense allowed 27, 30, 31 and 30. Those last two efforts came in the last two weeks. That’s explaining why the total is set at 55.5 in Rams vs Lions. 
• Steelers vs Dolphins fascinates me for this reason: What happens to Pittsburgh’s run defense if Derrick Harmon misses another game? The first-round pick has missed two straight, and the unit allowed over 200 rushing yards in both games. He also failed to play in Week 1 – the Jets rushed for 182 yards. Now they play a Dolphins rushing attack ranked sixth in rush offense DVOA. Look out for Miami as a live underdog if Harmon misses MNF. 
• Another game I’ll be watching closely is Bears vs Browns. On paper, Cleveland’s defense is built to cause problems for the Bears offense. Chicago’s fifth-ranked rush offense takes on a Cleveland defense second on defense. It’s the first time all year the Bears play a top-six rush DVOA defense. What’s fascinating is Cleveland just allowed 184 rushing yards to Tennessee. Chicago is 10-3 to the over against its team total this year, and I’ll be interested to see if that continues.