NFL Week 14 Biggest Matchup Advantages

The Week 14 NFL slate features a couple of notable mismatches on both sides of the ball. 

In order to help evaluate NFL odds this week, I’ve outlined the (potential) mismatch opportunities. 

To guide this exercise, I source DVOA data from ftnfantasy.com. To define a mismatch, I look for 20 spot differences for a unit. 

NFL Week 14 Matchup Advantages

Bills vs Bengals: Bills Rushing Offense vs Bengals Rushing Defense & Bengals Rush Offense vs Bills Rush Defense

Buffalo dominated the Steelers on the ground last week, rushing for 247 yards. Now, they return home to face what, on paper, is an inferior unit to Pittsburgh. 

For the season, the Bills rank second in rush offense DVOA. Only the Colts have posted a better output on the ground. 

Cincinnati ranks 31st in the corresponding defensive category. Only the New York Giants own a worse rush defense. 

The Bengals have faced a pair of top-five rush offense DVOA units: Chicago and Detroit. 

Kyle Monangai rushed for 176 yards against Cincinnati. Interestingly, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for only 119. However, the defense also allowed 133 to Breece Hall. 

Meanwhile, Cincinnati ranks fourth in rush offense DVOA. That ranking is largely due to Cincinnati consistently playing good rush defenses. 

Sunday’s game marks the second for Cincinnati against a bottom-five rush defense. Interestingly, the ground game managed only 46 rushing yards against the Bears. 

Curiously, the offense managed 181 rushing yards against the Jets. Entering Week 14, New York outranks Buffalo by 14 spots in rush defense DVOA (16th vs. 30th). 

Chase Brown’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards. He’s cleared that number in three straight and five of his last six. Buffalo has kept only four backs under that number this year. 

Browns vs Titans: Browns Defense vs Titans Offense & Titans Special Teams vs Browns Special Teams

The gauntlet continues for the Titans offense, which has played the hardest set of opposing defenses. 

On Sunday, Tennessee’s 30th-ranked DVOA offense faces a Browns defense third in the corresponding defensive category. 

If there’s a glimmer of hope for Tennessee, it’s that the team ranks ninth in special teams DVOA. Cleveland ranks 32nd in that category. 

This season, Titans receiver Chimere Dike leads the NFL in yards per punt return. 

Packers vs Bears: Packers Passing Offense vs Bears Passing Defense

I present this “advantage” with a slight caveat. Green Bay leads the NFL in pass offense DVOA, while Chicago ranks 23rd on defense. 

However, Chicago has largely played the season heavily injured in the secondary. Last week, the defense returned both Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon to the defense. 

Albeit against an inconsistent Eagles offense, the passing defense improved last week. Chicago’s defensive dropback success rate fell from 51.7% in Weeks 1-12 to 42.4%. 

If there’s a cause for concern, it’s that this game marks Chicago’s first on the road against a top-five passing offense by DVOA. 

Raiders vs Broncos: Broncos Defense vs Raiders Offense

On paper, Vegas should struggle to move the ball against Denver’s defense. 

The Raiders rank 31st in total offensive DVOA and 32nd in rush offense DVOA. Denver ranks fourth and third in the corresponding defensive categories. 

If there’s hope for Vegas, it’s that Denver’s defense faced 85 plays on Sunday in an overtime game. Pair it with a second straight road game, and maybe Vegas can move the ball. 

That’s about the only hope for Vegas, which managed only 188 net yards at Denver in Week 10. That included only 143 passing yards for Geno Smith – his passing yards prop is set at 198.5. 

Cardinals vs Rams: Rams Rushing Defense vs Cardinals Rushing Offense

The Rams’ already good rush defense finally receives a reprieve in Week 14. 

Los Angeles ranks sixth in rush defense DVOA, with Arizona ranked 26th on offense. This marks only the fourth game for the Rams’ defense against a rush offense 26th or worse. 

Tony Pollard managed 92 yards against the Rams defense. However, Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara managed under 60. 

For Arizona, this game marks its fifth against a rush defense ranked ninth or better in DVOA. In the previous four, their running backs never managed more than 62 yards. 

NFL Week 14: Positive & Negative Regression Notes

• Chiefs vs Texans is fascinating for this reason: how does Patrick Mahomes perform against the best zone-coverage defense in the league? Mahomes leads the NFL in EPA per dropback and DVOA against zone coverage. The same is true of Houston’s defense. Further complicating the matter: Kansas City could miss three starters on the offensive line. 
• If Jacksonville’s performance against the Rams is any indication, Indianapolis could struggle on the road. Jacksonville ranks ninth in rush defense DVOA, but has played only one team posting a 10% rush offense DVOA rating or higher. When Jacksonville faced the Rams in London, the defense held Kyren Williams to 54 yards. Williams and Blake Corum combined for 91. This season, Indianapolis is 2-4 when Jonathan Taylor rushes for under 90 yards. Otherwise: 6-0. 
• I’m bullish on the Raiders defense positively regressing this week. The unit ranks 17th in defensive DVOA and has played the 13th-hardest set of offenses. Denver ranks 15th on offense, but has faced the easiest schedule of defenses. When these teams met earlier this season, Denver managed only 220 yards, their worst output of the entire season. 
• Bettors should closely monitor how Seattle’s defense plays coming down the stretch. The defense leads the league in defensive DVOA, but has played the fifth-easiest set of defenses. After a trip to Atlanta this week, Seattle finishes with the Rams, Colts and 49ers. Those teams rank first, second and sixth in offensive DVOA. All three have played top-10 opposing defensive schedules as well.