NFL Week 12 Biggest Matchup Advantages

The Week 12 NFL slate features a couple of notable mismatches on both sides of the ball. 

In order to help evaluate NFL odds this week, I’ve outlined the (potential) mismatch opportunities. 

To guide this exercise, I source DVOA data from ftnfantasy.com. To define a mismatch, I look for 20 spot differences for a unit. 

NFL Week 12 Matchup Advantages

Lions vs Giants: Detroit Rush Offense vs Giants Rush Defense

Detroit struggled to run the ball on SNF against the Eagles. Sunday’s home game against the Giants could offer bettors a buy-low opportunity. 

For the season, Detroit ranks eighth in rush offense DVOA. The Giants rank 32nd in the corresponding defensive category. 

Detroit has played two opponents currently 28th or worse in that benchmark this season. In Week 2, the offense notched 177 rushing yards against Chicago. 

In Week 5, the Lions achieved 118 rushing yards at Cincinnati. 

David Montgomery cleared 56.5 rushing yards in both of those games. This week, his rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards. 

Patriots vs Bengals: Patriots Pass Offense vs Bengals Pass Defense

New England dropped to fourth in pass offense DVOA after last week’s game against the Jets. It’s still good for a 28-spot edge over Cincinnati’s pass defense DVOA ranking. 

Last week, Maye faced a 31st-ranked Jets defense through the air. He completed 25 passes for 281 yards and one touchdown. 

By total pass defense DVOA, the Jets are the closest comparison to this Bengals unit. 

Cincinnati has played a pair of games vs. top-10 pass offense DVOA teams. Those came in Weeks 5-6 against Detroit and Green Bay. 

If there’s a common thread to be drawn from those games, it’s the longest completion allowed. Both Jared Goff (39) and Jordan Love (35) cleared 34.5 yards. 

Maye’s longest completion line is set at 36.5 yards. He’s cleared that benchmark in six games this season, with at least one 30+ yard completion in seven games. 

49ers vs Panthers: 49ers Pass Offense vs Panthers Pass Defense

The 49ers rank third in pass offense DVOA, with Carolina ranked 26th on defense. Incredibly, it’s the first time all year San Francisco plays a unit 22nd or worse on defense. 

Brock Purdy threw three touchdown passes in his return to action at Arizona. He’s tossed multiple touchdown passes in all three of his starts this year. 

This game presents Carolina’s biggest challenge by pass offense DVOA. 

In two prior games against comparable offenses – New England and Green Bay – the longest completion once again stands out. 

Maye tossed a 33-yard completion against Carolina, with Jordan Love throwing a 52-yard strike. This week, Purdy’s longest completion is set at 36.5 yards. 

He cleared that benchmark in Week 1 against Seattle. However, Purdy stayed under that benchmark against Jacksonville and Arizona. 

Eagles vs Cowboys: Eagles Pass Offense vs Cowboys Pass Defense

In Week 1, Jalen Hurts completed 83% of his 23 attempts with a longest completion of 51 yards. 

Dallas hasn’t changed much since that game. The Cowboys rank 30th in pass defense DVOA, with Philadelphia ranking eighth. 

One caveat to note about Philly: that ranking is driven by explosives. Entering Week 12, the Eagles rank 24th in total dropback success rate vs. 13th in EPA per play. 

Hurts’ longest completion is set at 35.5 yards this week. The current Super Bowl MVP has cleared in 7-of-10 this year with a 30+ yard completion in 8-of-10. 

Dallas has kept only Justin Fields and Geno Smith under that benchmark this season. 

Titans vs Seahawks: Seahawks Defense vs Titans Offense

The murderer’s row of defenses continues to hit Tennessee. 

Cam Ward leads the offense into a fourth game this year against a top-5 defense by DVOA. It should come as no surprise that the Titans rank 31st in offensive DVOA. 

Seattle leads the NFL in defensive DVOA. Tennessee takes that on without Calvin Ridley as well. 

In three previous games against top-5 DVOA defenses, Tennessee managed one total touchdown. Granted, that success came at home last week against Houston. 

Tennessee managed no more than 13 points in the three prior games. This week, Tennessee’s team total is set at 13.5 points. 

Seattle has played only one game against an offense ranked 26th or worse. At home, the defense held New Orleans to 13 points. 

Browns vs Raiders: Browns Defense vs Raiders Offense

Will the Browns defense show up on the road? 

They enter Sunday’s game with a massive edge over Vegas’ offense. Cleveland ranks fifth in defensive DVOA, while Vegas ranks 30th on offense. 

Cleveland played a semi-comparable Jets offense on the road. The team allowed 27 points, but only 13 came against the defense. 

Incredibly, the Browns rank 18th in points per game allowed despite sitting ninth in red zone opportunities allowed. 

Packers vs Vikings: Packers Defense vs Vikings Offense

What’s interesting about this game is that the Packers defense doesn’t carry a massive edge in either metric. It’s cumulative where the difference lies. 

Green Bay ranks ninth in total defensive DVOA. Individually, the pass defense ranks 13th while the rush defense ranks 16th. 

Minnesota ranks 29th on offense, including 28th and 14th in the respective offensive categories. 

For Green Bay, Sunday’s game qualifies as its third against an offense carrying a negative pass offense DVOA rating. 

In the previous two, the defense allowed 13 points to Cleveland and 16 to Carolina. 

NFL Week 12: Potential Positive & Negative Regression Notes

• As noted in my NFL Week 12 Expert Picks, I love buying low on the Saints defense against Atlanta. New Orleans has played the hardest defensive schedule to date and gets Kirk Cousins on Sunday with no Drake London. Atlanta ranks 18th in offensive DVOA, but only four teams have played easier schedules. 
• Another theme for Week 12 picks: buying low on the Raiders defense. Vegas goes from playing a Cowboys offense ninth in DVOA to a Cleveland unit ranked 32nd. The closest comp to Cleveland’s offense is the Titans, who managed only 10 points at Allegiant Stadium. 
• I mentioned this in Week 11 Matchup Advantages, but it bears repeating: The Titans offense is not as bad as you think it is. Only San Francisco has played a harder set of defensive opponents than the Titans. It gets no easier the rest of the way – Tennessee plays the seventh-hardest set of defenses the rest of the way – but there will come a point to buy low on the offense. If not this season, the offense should look better in Cam Ward’s sophomore season. 
• I’m fascinated to watch Texans vs Bills for this reason: is the Bills rush offense or Texans rush defense more legitimate? Buffalo ranks second in rush offense DVOA, with Houston sitting fifth on defense. Houston has played three games against top-6 units and kept all three lead backs under 70 yards. Buffalo played Miami (sixth) twice and saw James Cook notch 108 and 53 yards. This game will give us insight, I think, into Houston’s viability as an underdog against a top-ranked Colts rushing attack. 
• Do not be surprised if Tet McMillan clears 100 yards again this week in 49ers vs Panthers. He played a zone-heavy Falcons scheme last week and went for 130. He plays another zone-heavy scheme in San Francisco this week. His 558 yards against zone coverage this year trails only nine receivers: Drake London, Ja’Marr Chase, George Pickens, Puka Nacua, Jaylen Waddle, Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Emeka Egbuka.