NFL Week 11 Biggest Matchup Advantages

The Week 11 NFL slate features a couple of notable mismatches on both sides of the ball. 

In order to help evaluate NFL odds this week, I’ve outlined the (potential) mismatch opportunities. 

To guide this exercise, I source DVOA data from ftnfantasy.com. To define a mismatch, I look for 20 spot differences for a unit. 

NFL Week 11: Matchup Advantages

Patriots vs Jets: New England Pass Offense vs Jets Pass Defense

Even before the Jets traded Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter, the Jets’ pass defense created problems. 

New York enters Thursday’s matchup ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA. Now, they play a Patriots offense ranked third in the corresponding offensive category. 

Even more concerning? New York has yet to face a top-five pass offense DVOA unit. 

What is notable about the Jets is that they’re a boom-or-bust pass defense. In fact, New York ranks fourth in defensive dropback success rate on plays excluding turnovers. 

However, the unit drops to 18th in dropback EPA per play. When New York played the Cowboys – their hardest pass DVOA opponent to date – Dak Prescott’s longest completion was 46 yards. 

Steelers vs Bengals: Steelers Rush Offense vs. Bengals Rush Defense

Pittsburgh ranks seventh in rush offense DVOA, down two spots from last week. 

Now, they get a Bengals run defense that sits 31st in the corresponding defensive category. Additionally, the Bengals rank 32nd in rushing success rate. 

As a team, Cincinnati has surrendered at least 135 rushing yards in all but two games. 

Pittsburgh produced its best rushing effort of the season when these teams last played. The Steelers, as a team, rushed for 147 yards. 

Jaylen Warren rushed for 127 yards in that game with a longest rush of 37 yards. 

This week, oddsmakers price Warren at -115 to rush for at least 75 yards. He’s simultaneously -165 to score a touchdown for the second time in three games. 

Falcons vs Panthers: Falcons Pass Defense vs Panthers Pass Offense

Whether a return from Germany impacts Atlanta’s defense remains unknown. That said, they’re primed to limit Bryce Young’s ability to throw. 

Atlanta ranks second in pass defense DVOA. The Panthers rank 29th in the corresponding offensive category. 

Game state played a heavy role, but Young passed for 121 yards when these teams last played. Only Drake Maye and Daniel Jones cleared 250 yards passing against Atlanta. 

One last factor to consider: Young struggles immensely against zone coverage, which Atlanta runs at a top-10 rate in the league. 

Young ranks 32nd in pass rating against zone. He also ranks 27th of 32nd in EPA per dropback against zone. 

Titans vs Texans: Houston Defense vs Tennessee Offense

Houston delivered an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance last week. Jacksonville scored 29 points on the unit, which is only the second time Houston allowed over 20. 

The other unit to achieve that feat? A Seahawks offense that is fourth in offensive DVOA. 

In good news, Houston plays a much easier opponent in Week 11. The Titans rank 31st in offensive DVOA, with Houston still sitting first in defensive DVOA. 

The last time these teams played, Tennessee failed to score points. This season, the Cam Ward-led offense has scored 14 or fewer in five of nine games. 

When the Titans played Houston and Denver (2nd in defensive DVOA), the team failed to score a touchdown. 

From a total yards standpoint, those games qualify as Tennessee’s worst of the season. 

Based on implied team total odds, Tennessee’s team total likely comes in around 14.5 or 15.5. That could create a buy-low opportunity on Houston’s defense if Jalen Pitre returns. 

NFL Week 11: Potential Positive & Negative Regression Notes

• As noted in my NFL Week 11 Expert Picks, I’m selling Tampa Bay’s run defense in Buffalo. The Bucs rank fourth in rush defense DVOA, but have faced only one top-six rush offense this season. Buffalo ranks second in that category. Look for a big game by James Cook. 
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba should cook in Rams vs Seahawks. Los Angeles ranks 27th in DVOA against WR1, and Smith-Njigba has blitzed zone coverage this year. JSN leads the league in yards against zone and beats second-place Drake London by almost as big a gap between London and 13th-placed Michael Pittman Jr. 
• One more note on Rams vs Seahawks: I’m worried about Seattle’s defense. The unit ranks third in defensive DVOA, but has played the 27th-hardest set of offenses. The Rams (2nd) are the first top-five unit they’ll have played all season. Only twice this season has LA scored under 23 points – they’ve also cleared 26 in all but three. The total (48.5) feels high for a division game, but I could see points at SoFi. 
• Jaguars vs Chargers offers another fascinating matchup. Jacksonville ranks 22nd in offensive DVOA – including 10th on the ground – and has played the league’s sixth-hardest defensive schedule. They’re also the league’s lowest variance offense. The Chargers’ defense is a high-variance unit (28th) and ranks 25th in rush defense DVOA. As a unit, the Chargers have played the league’s fourth-easiest set of offenses. 
• It won’t happen this week (see above), but I’m curious if positive regression arrives for Tennessee’s offense. Yes, they rank 31st in offensive DVOA, but the team has played the league’s second-hardest set of defenses. It gets no easier in the next two – Houston this week, Seattle the next – but then they get Jacksonville in Week 13. They also play 26th-placed San Francisco in Week 15. Perhaps some buy-low spots are coming on the Titans offense in the future.