NFL Week 10 Biggest Matchup Advantages

The Week 10 NFL slate features a couple of notable mismatches on both sides of the ball. 

In order to help evaluate NFL odds this week, I’ve outlined the (potential) mismatch opportunities. 

To guide this exercise, I source DVOA data from ftnfantasy.com. To define a matchup edge, I look for 20 spot differences for a unit. 

NFL Week 10: Matchup Advantages

Rams vs 49ers: Rams Offense vs. 49ers Defense

Los Angeles enters this game third in offensive DVOA, while the 49ers rank 24th in defensive DVOA. 

The Rams offense has cumulatively faced the league’s 14th-hardest set of defenses. Conversely, San Francisco has played the league’s 21st-hardest set of offenses. 

Compounding LA’s potential advantage? Defensive injuries to Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Mykel Williams. 

Colts vs Falcons: Colts Rush Offense vs Falcons Rush Defense

Based purely on this data, a potential Jonathan Taylor resurgence could unfold in Berlin. 

Only the Bills outpace the Colts in rush offense DVOA. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s defense ranks 24th in the corresponding defensive metric. 

When Bills back James Cook faced Atlanta, he rushed for 87 yards on 5.1 yards per attempt. 

Dolphins vs Bills: Bills Passing Game vs Dolphins Pass Defense

Buffalo rates out “worse” through the air than on the ground (7th vs. 1st). However, the advantage this week comes against Miami’s secondary. 

Anthony Weaver’s defense ranks 14th in rush defense DVOA compared to 30th in pass defense. 

The last time Josh Allen faced Miami, he threw three touchdown passes with a 78.6% completion rate and a season-high passer rating. 

Broncos vs Raiders: Broncos Rush Defense vs Raiders Rush Offense

Look away Ashton Jeanty fantasy owners. 

The Raiders rank 32nd in rush offense DVOA this season. It gets no easier on TNF as the unit plays a Broncos defense third in rush defense DVOA. 

Denver’s record comes from having played a third of its games against a top-10 rush DVOA team. Two of the four times the Broncos allowed a 100-yard rusher came in those three games. 

Seahawks vs Cardinals: Seahawks Defense vs Cardinals Offense

This data includes games featuring both Kyler Murray and Jacoby Brissett. With that established, Arizona ranks 23rd in offensive DVOA. 

Seattle ranks second in the corresponding defensive category. It marks a massive jump in quality for Arizona, which just played a bad Cowboys defense (31st). 

Bears vs Giants: Bears Rush Offense vs Giants Rush Defense

No team ranks worse than the Giants in rush defense DVOA. The Bears, meanwhile, sit eighth in the corresponding offensive category. 

Eventually, a sell-high opportunity will come in Chicago. As an entire group, the offense has played the league’s second-easiest set of defenses. 

However, Chicago goes from playing the league’s 31st-ranked rush DVOA defense last week (Cincy) to the 32nd-ranked defense this week (New York). 

Last week, the Bears accumulated 283 rushing yards as a team. Running back Kyle Monangai accounted for 176 of those yards.

Chargers vs Steelers: Steelers Rushing Offense vs Chargers Run Defense 

Pittsburgh ranks fifth in rush offense DVOA, while the Chargers rank 27th on defense. 

Impressively, the Steelers offense has achieved that standing while playing six games against teams 12th or better in rush defense DVOA. 

Measuring the output here for Pittsburgh is slightly difficult. Arthur Smith’s rushing game produced its best yardage effort at Cincinnati (31st, 13.2% rush defense DVOA). 

Only four spots separate Cincinnati and LA in that metric. However, LA’s rush defense percentage is -0.8%. 

Worth noting: LA has played three games this year against rush unit 13th or better: Washington (13th), Kansas City (sixth) and Indianapolis (2nd). 

The unit allowed only one running back – Jacory-Croskey Merritt – to surpass 100 yards. Against Indy, the Chargers held Jonathan Taylor to 95 yards. 

Jets vs Browns: Browns Defense vs Jets Offense

Is this the spot where Cleveland’s defense shows up on the road? 

Cleveland ranks sixth in defensive DVOA. The team has played the 11th-hardest set of offenses and ranks 27th in variance (high rank = unpredictable). 

The Jets offense ranks 27th in offensive DVOA despite playing the third-easiest set of defenses. 

Buccaneers vs Patriots: Bucs Run Defense vs Patriots Run Offense

New England ranks third in pass offense DVOA vs. 27th in rush offense. 

It should be slow sledding for either Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson against a Bucs defense fifth in rush defense DVOA. 

Only Seattle and Detroit have rushed for over 100 yards against Tampa Bay this season. 

Texans vs Jaguars: Jaguars Rush Defense vs Texans Rush Offense

Jacksonville’s defense posted an impressive output against Houston running backs in Week 3. Now, a unit seventh in rush defense DVOA plays an offense 30th in rush DVOA. 

Both Nick Chubb and Woody Marks failed to crack 40 yards in Week 3 against Jacksonville, albeit on a short week off MNF. 

NFL Week 10: Potential Positive & Negative Regression Notes

• The Saints defense isn’t as bad as one might think. The unit ranks 25th in defensive DVOA, but has played the league’s hardest set of offenses. A potential reprieve arrives at Carolina, which ranks 25th in offensive DVOA against the fourth-easiest defensive schedule. 
• Don’t expect another high-flying effort from Jacksonville’s offense. Liam Coen’s team has played two games against top-10 DVOA defenses this year and failed to amass 300 yards in both. They’re at Houston in Week 10. When these teams played in Week 3, Jacksonville rushed for 86 yards, down from a 123.6 season average. 
• Look out for Tampa Bay’s offense if Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin come back. Tampa ranks 18th in offensive DVOA, but it has come against the league’s sixth-hardest schedule. New England ranks 25th on defense, having played the easiest set of offenses. One note here: this game will tell us a lot about Baker Mayfield. This year, he has struggled against man coverage, which New England runs at a top-10 rate in the league. However, the Patriots defense has posted bad metrics in man, offering an opportunity for Mayfield to improve. 
• I’m curious to see how Baltimore’s offense performs at Minnesota. This sample includes Lamar Jackson’s injury: Baltimore ranks 12th in offensive DVOA against the third-hardest defensive schedule. Minnesota ranks 14th on defense against, cumulatively, the 19th-hardest schedule. However, only the Steelers have a higher variance defense than the Vikings.