- The Vikings are a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against the Browns.
- The Browns have lost each of their last eight games before a Division game.
- My Vikings vs Browns prediction depends on Minnesota’s defensive injuries.
The Vikings play a second straight international contest as the “road team” against the Browns.
Minnesota dropped the first of two games overseas against AFC North opposition. As 2.5-point favorites against Pittsburgh, the Vikings lost 24-21 in Dublin, falling to 2-2.
Cleveland played Detroit in Week 4, losing both SU and ATS as 10-point underdogs. So far this season, Cleveland has surpassed 16.5 points only one time.
Bet on Vikings vs. Browns and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Vikings vs. Browns: NFL Week 5 Odds
Vikings vs. Browns Prediction
Monday, September 29
Depending on Andrew van Ginkel’s status for Sunday’s game in London, my Vikings vs Browns prediction is the Browns 1H Team Total Under 6.5 Points (+130).
Sunday’s game presents a terrible disadvantage for Cleveland. That said, I want to wait on this number and Van Ginkel’s status before locking in a prediction.
Cleveland has struggled to get going early this season. The Browns are averaging only five first-half points per game this year, the worst mark in the NFL.
In fairness to Cleveland, the team ranks 31st in offensive DVOA against the 13th-hardest set of defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
But the slate gets no easier on Sunday. Minnesota’s defense ranks eighth in defensive DVOA, albeit against the fifth-easiest set of offenses.
The Vikings get a shorter travel spot from Dublin to London. Meanwhile, Cleveland appears to be flying later in the week for the international matchup.
Through four weeks, Minnesota ranks T-7th in opponent first-half points allowed per game. It’s also a strong buy-low spot on Minnesota, which allowed 14 in the first half to Pittsburgh.
However, seven of those points came on a D.K. Metcalf 80-yard catch and run. Cleveland, at 31st in pass offense DVOA, lacks similar firepower.
Last season, Minnesota ranked third in opponent first-half points allowed.
On Sunday, the team gets a Cleveland offense that has stayed under 7.5 first-half points in three of four this season and 15 of 21 dating back to last season.
Over the same span, the Browns finished under 6.5 points in 12 of 21. Depending on the line, I’ll look to fade the Browns offense in a bad scheduling spot.
Betting Vikings vs. Browns: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 72% | 66% | 57% | 61% |
| Browns | 28% | 34% | 43% | 39% |
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