How Often Is the Eagles’ Tush Push Actually Successful?

Betting the NFL board is notoriously difficult. That means successful bettors are constantly looking for new angles to play and re-examining their priors. 

Enter Philadelphia. The Eagles aren’t just the reigning Super Bowl champions – for bettors, they’re a point spread masher. The elite offensive line and run game with Saquon Barkley has allowed this current construction of Philadelphia to obliterate covers as a favorite. 

One of the perceived strengths in this magical ability to churn out covers in the Eagles’ odds market is the Tush Push. Philadelphia’s offensive line, combined with Jalen Hurts’ unusual lower body strength, has given the Eagles a near-unstoppable advantage on 4th-and-short. 

The perception of the Tush Push is so invincible that the NFL considered banning it this offseason. 

So today, I enter the blog’s rhetorical arena with just one question on my mind: Just how good is the Eagles’ Tush Push? Let’s get to an actual mathematical answer. 

Tush Push Success Rate

According to CBS, the Eagles were 39-of-48 on Tush Push plays in 2024, earning either a first down or a touchdown when running the short-yardage sneak in 2024. That’s good for about 81%. 

That’s slightly down from the previous season, where the play converted about 88% of the time in 2023 and more than 90% in 2022. The play is potent, but the league has found ways to make it slightly harder as other teams have seen it more. (Former Eagles center Jason Kelce has also retired, which could be another potential impact on the success rate.)

For this conversation, let’s assume the Tush Push is going to keep converting at around 82%.

Success Rates for Draws & Dives On Short Yardage To Go

In order to have a more complete idea of how to evaluate the Tush Push success rate, let’s also look at two other data points: 

• Running back conversions on short-yardage plays
• League-wide QB sneaks and other short-yardage keepers

This offseason analysis from PFF contributor Sterling Xie notes that running backs have converted 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-1 at about a 67% clip since 2019. That’s two out of every three plays.

Still good? Yes. As good as the Tush Push? Definitely not. Intuiting this difference in success rates between the two plays goes a long way in explaining why the Tush Push is perceived as hugely successful.

But the discussion gets a lot more interesting when evaluating quarterback sneaks and keepers. Quarterbacks across the entire NFL converted 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-1 at an 84% rate in 2024.

That means the Tush Push was actually less successful than the league average. Jalen Hurts wasn’t even the best sneaker in his own division, since Jayden Daniels went 13-for-13 in 1-yard-to-go keeper scenarios.

Final Grade for Philadelphia Eagles and the Tush Push

The Tush Push is an excellent tool for short-yardage conversions. But it turns out, the data says that’s because quarterback sneaks in general are great tools for 4th-and-1. What the Eagles deserve credit for is their more maximalist policy of exploiting it. 

The Eagles still have a great offensive line. Hurts can still squat a lot more than me. The Eagles are still a great cover team with that run game. All of those things remain true!

But when it comes to grading the Tush Push, the data says we should all calm down just a little bit. At the end of the day, Nick Sirianni is just a guy who loves running QB Sneak in Madden, but with a far more sophisticated marketing operation.