The San Francisco 49ers Offense is About to Break Out

Beginning this week with 49ers vs Panthers, bettors should start to monitor San Francisco’s offense as an extreme positive regression candidate. 

I’m not sure enough credit is given to the offense. Brock Purdy has started three games, George Kittle has missed time, and the wide receivers are in and out of treatment rooms. 

No team has played a harder schedule of defenses than San Francisco. Kyle Shanahan’s unit has played four games against top-3 defensive DVOA units and eight against top-12 units. 

That schedule, with the injuries, should have created a disaster scenario. 

The opposite has happened. Before making opponent adjustments, San Francisco ranks ninth in offensive DVOA and pass offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Now the schedule begins to soften. Based on current defensive DVOA ratings, the 49ers play the 13th-hardest set of defenses down the stretch. 

Starting this week, the 49ers play three games against teams currently 20th or worse in defensive DVOA. 

Here’s why I expect the offense begins to flourish based on current NFL odds. 

San Francisco 49ers Prediction: Offensive Improvement Arrives

There’s one comparison I like to begin with as a potential case for positive or negative regression. 

Essentially, it’s how the team stacks up in points per game vs. red zone opportunities. 

San Francisco enters Week 12 ranked 15th in points per game. By comparison, the offense sits T-9th in red zone opportunities (3.6). 

Remember when they played at Seattle in Week 1? That defense, which leads the league in defensive DVOA, surrendered five red zone opportunities to the 49ers. 

San Francisco also notched five red zone trips in Week 10 against the Rams. Game state likely played a role there, but the same happened in Week 5. 

Mac Jones quarterbacked an offense without Ricky Pearsall, Juaun Jennings and George Kittle. He threw for 342 yards against a Rams secondary ranked second in pass defense DVOA. 

Over the last two weeks, San Francisco ranks third in success rate when its win percentage falls between 20 and 80%. Their 66.7% dropback success rate leads the league in those situations. 

That came against the Rams and Cardinals. Arizona did play without Will Johnson, but the defense looked hapless against Kittle, who accounted for 34% of Purdy’s yardage total. 

Arguably, the most impressive factor about San Francisco’s offense is the early scripting. 

Without accounting for the injuries and opponent difficulty, the unit ranks seventh and 10th in first-quarter EPA per play and success rate. 

Over the last two games, the dropback success rate in the first quarter has risen from 49.4% for the season to 58.3%. 

With Purdy at the helm, I expect this offense begins to thrive. Since 2023, Purdy leads the NFL in EPA per play. Yes – better than Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jared Goff. 

That’s a big reason I predicted points would flow in my Week 12 Expert Picks. 

Week 13 in Cleveland could produce a different story. But then San Francisco closes the year with games against Tennessee, Indianapolis, Chicago and Seattle. 

Given San Francisco’s earlier success in Seattle, an offensive invigoration could close the season.