This Rams vs Seahawks Matchup Will Decide Sunday’s Game

Bettors are no stranger to the success of Seattle’s offense behind Sam Darnold. 

Seattle, with Darnold and new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, has lit the league on fire through the air. 

Entering Sunday’s clash with the Rams, Seattle leads the league in pass offense DVOA.

That sets up a – perceived – strength-on-strength matchup. The Rams defense ranks eighth in the corresponding defensive category, per ftnfantasy.com. 

But lost in the initial ratings is that Darnold could tear apart LA’s defense. Additionally, the matchup offers a potential sell-high spot on the Rams secondary. 

Here’s a look at the matchup I’m eyeing that could decide Sunday’s game. 

Rams vs Seahawks Prediction: Seattle Offense Decides Game

The Rams defense entered Week 10 playing zone coverage at the league’s fifth-highest percentage, per PFF. 

If that trend continues against Seattle, it places the game outcome solely on Darnold and, by extension, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

This season, Darnold has dominated zone coverage. 

His 43.4% DVOA rating against zone leads the league. His 10 touchdowns against zone is tied atop the board with Aaron Rodgers. 

In terms of DVOA, the gap between Darnold and second place – Patrick Mahomes – is almost as big as the gap between Mahomes and fifth-placed Matthew Stafford. 

No receiver has accumulated more yards against zone than Smith-Njigba. The NFL Offensive Player of the Year contender has amassed 732 yards vs. zone, 169 yards more than Drake London. 

Incredibly, the gap between JSN and London is just shy of the gap between London and 13th-placed Michael Pittman Jr! 

If there’s a knock against Seattle’s prolific passing game, it’s that the competition leaves something to be desired. 

Seattle has played four of nine games against top-10 pass defense DVOA units. Darnold amassed over 300 yards in just one of those four games (Tampa Bay). 

But the same could be said about the Rams’ pass defense. Without adjusting for strength of schedule, the Rams defense has played four games against top-9 units. 

How did they fare? A pair of 300+ yard allowances to Mac Jones, 226 to Jalen Hurts and 262 to Daniel Jones. Take out those performances: 195 passing yards allowed per game. 

All three of the aforementioned quarterbacks *should* have cleared 1.5 touchdowns. A.D. Mitchell cost Jones his second. 

Both of LA’s losses this season have come while allowing three or more passing touchdowns. Given Darnold’s record against zone, it creates a potential sell-high spot. 

Even more concerning for LA: turnovers have proven a staple of wins this season. The Rams are 5-0 when turning the ball over two or more times vs. 2-2 when they don’t. 

Only two quarterbacks outpace Darnold in turnover-worthy plays this season. Accordingly, if LA regresses, it could give Seattle an advantage in the NFC West.