- The Texans are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Bills.
- The Bills have won each of their last eight Thursday games.
- My Texans vs. Bills prediction is that the Texans (+3.5) will cover the spread.
The Texans try for a third straight win on TNF as home underdogs against the Bills.
Houston won 16-13 in Tennessee on Sunday, improving to 5-5 on the season. After starting the year 0-3, Houston is 5-2 in its last seven games, including 3-1 at home.
Buffalo captured a 44-32 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday, covering as a six-point home favorite. With the win, Buffalo is now 7-0 on the year when scoring at least 28 points.
Bet on Texans vs. Bills and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Texans vs. Bills: NFL Week 12 Odds
Texans vs. Bills Prediction
Based on Buffalo’s complete inability to stop the run and Houston’s defensive prowess, my Texans vs Bills prediction is the Houston Texans Spread (+3.5, -105).
This line scares me. Essentially, the only consideration here is that Houston sits above a key number. That said, I’d wait to see if this line moves in Buffalo’s direction.
The best unit on the field is Houston’s defense. Exclusive of Week 11, Houston ranked first in defensive DVOA against the 10th-hardest set of offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
Accordingly, one could view this spot as a sell-high opportunity on the Bills offense. Buffalo, before accounting for Week 11, ranked sixth in offensive DVOA.
However, Buffalo has yet to play a defense ranked fifth or better in defensive DVOA. Plus, the last time Buffalo played a top-five pass defense DVOA unit, they lost outright at Atlanta.
Additionally, Buffalo’s rush defense leaves so much to be desired.
Buffalo surrendered 202 yards on the ground Sunday against Tampa Bay. Before that game, the Bucs ranked 25th in rush offense DVOA, with Buffalo sitting 30th on defense.
The issue with evaluating Houston’s viability against that defense? The Texans’ only experience against a “bad” rush defense is two games against the Titans.
Incredibly, Buffalo is 2-2 SU when they allow over 190 yards rushing. Houston, meanwhile, is 4-0 when rushing for over 125 yards.
If the Texans can run the ball, it takes the onus off their bad offensive line. Defensively, Houston can then rely on an impressive coverage unit to try and turn Josh Allen over.
One last factor I’m considering: the public’s early love for Buffalo. A week after supporting the Bucs as dogs in Buffalo, bettors are back to taking the Bills.
As of Monday at 10 a.m. ET, 72% of bets and 82% of money is on Buffalo to cover.
All of those factors lead me to consider Houston as home dogs on Thursday.
Betting Texans vs. Bills: NFL Public Betting
Check back later in the week for Texans vs Bills public betting data.
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