Texans vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 3

Footballs are viewed on the field before an NFL football game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Dec. 29, 2024, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
  • The Jaguars are -1.5 point favorites vs the Texans
  • Total (Over/Under): 44 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Houston Texans (0-2-0) visit EverBank Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1-0) on Sep. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Jacksonville, FL.

The Jaguars are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Texans vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texans+1.5 -11044 -110105
Jaguars -1.5 -11044 -110-125

Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 74.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Jaguars Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 74.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

  • C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.40 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • C.J. Stroud has hit the TD Passes Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • C.J. Stroud has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Nico Collins has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Dyami Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Dyami Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Brian Thomas Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Interceptions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.30 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+2.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+3.25 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.85 Units / 14% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 0-2 (-2.25 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Texans are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -100% ROI
  • Texans are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Texans are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / ROI

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Jaguars are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Jaguars are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Jaguars are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans are 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have averaged just 2.0 sacks per game over that time span — T-4th-worst in NFL.

The Texans are 5-1 (.833) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2024 season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 253.6 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL.

The Texans were undefeated (6-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .611.

The Texans were undefeated (6-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .599.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Jaguars are 3-10 (.231) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst in NFL. The Texans have intercepted 19 passes since the 2024 season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Jaguars were 1-7 (.125) on the road last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.

The Jaguars are 1-8 (.111) on the road since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .480.

The Jaguars were winless (0-4) after a win last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .588.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been successful on 62.5% of rush attempts with motion this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed a success rate of 57.9% on rush attempts against motion this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars have been successful on just 39.3% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2024 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed a success rate of just 40.6% on pass attempts on their own side of the field since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Jaguars have been successful on 51.2% of plays they have run with motion this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed a success rate of 52.9% against motion this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Texans were successful on just 25.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Jaguars allowed a success rate of just 33.3% on pass attempts on their own side of the field last week — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Texans have been successful on just 25.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed a success rate of just 38.5% on pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Texans are 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have averaged just 2.0 sacks per game over that time span — T-4th-worst in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans have run no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans have converted first downs on just 4 of 18 plays (22%) on 3rd down this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Texans have a third down conversion rate of 22% this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Texans averaged 7.8 drives per TD in the 2nd half last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.4.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars have run successful plays on 20% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Jaguars started 6 drives inside opposing territory last season — fewest in NFL.

The Jaguars have started 5 drives inside opposing territory this season — T-most in NFL.

The Jaguars had an average time of possession of 26 min and 18 s last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 1,776.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

Only 39% of the plays ran against the Texans were in their own territory last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Only 10% of the plays ran against the Texans were in the red zone last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Texans defense have allowed 16 broken tackles this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 39% of pass attempts against play action passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense has allowed 77 receptions for 20+ yards since the 2024 season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense has allowed a passer rating of just 32.6 on motion plays (37 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 97.5.

The Jaguars defense allowed a passer rating of 116.3 on motion plays (291 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 95.8.

The Jaguars defense has forced 6 turnovers this season — most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.