Texans vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 30, 2025, 9:56 AM

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A general overall interior view of Lucas Oil Stadium as Chicago Bears take on the Indianapolis Colts during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in Indianapolis. The Colts defeated the Bears 21-16. (AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

(AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

The Colts are -4.5 point favorites vs the Texans
Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Houston Texans (6-5-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (8-3-0) on Nov. 30. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Indianapolis, IN.

The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Texans vs. Colts Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texans	+4.5 -110	44.5 -115	185
Colts	-4.5 -110	44.5 -105	-220

Texans vs. Colts Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 66.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Colts Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 54.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

Alec Pierce has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Michael Pittman has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 35% ROI)
Alec Pierce has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 44% ROI)
Jonathan Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Daniel Jones has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 45% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.50 Units / 57% ROI)
Dalton Schultz has hit the Receptions Over in his last 8 away games (+8.40 Units / 82% ROI)
Woody Marks has hit the Carries Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 65% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.40 Units / 40% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.45 Units / 35% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+5.65 Units / 18% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.75 Units / 13% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 away games (+2.30 Units / 20% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 10 of their last 18 games (+2.10 Units / 10% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 5-6 (-1.65 Units / -13.58% ROI).

Texans are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 6.67% ROI
Texans are 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -38.84% ROI
Texans are 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / ROI

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 7-4 (+2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI).

Colts are 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 14.51% ROI
Colts are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Colts are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have averaged 0.25 epa per play at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.03.

The Colts have averaged 7.3 yards per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Colts have averaged 0.24 epa per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

The Colts have run successful plays on 54% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Texans had a third down conversion rate of 17% in Week 12 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 21% of plays in the 2nd half in Week 12 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Texans have a third down conversion rate of 34% this season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Texans have gone for two on 27% of PATs this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts