Texans vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Dec 07, 2025, 9:50 AM

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Fans fly their Kansas City Chiefs flags outside GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium before a game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024 in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs defeated the Broncos, 16-14. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

(AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

The Chiefs are -3.5 point favorites vs the Texans
Total (Over/Under): 42 points
Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | NBCU

The Houston Texans (7-5-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (6-6-0) on Dec. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Kansas City, MO.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-102).

The Texans vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texans	+3.5 -118	42 -110	145
Chiefs	-3.5 -102	42 -110	-175

Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 61.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Chiefs Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 59.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 45% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.75 Units / 60% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.50 Units / 56% ROI)
Dalton Schultz has hit the Receptions Over in his last 8 away games (+8.50 Units / 87% ROI)
Woody Marks has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 67% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.90 Units / 34% ROI)
Kareem Hunt has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 92% ROI)
Marquise Brown has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 57% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.15 Units / 15% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.53 Units / 17% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 away games (+2.35 Units / 21% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 36% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 43% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.20 Units / 23% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 51% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 6-6 (-0.65 Units / -4.91% ROI).

Texans are 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 13.97% ROI
Texans are 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -43.94% ROI
Texans are 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 5-7 (-2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI).

Chiefs are 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -11.84% ROI
Chiefs are 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
Chiefs are 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs defense allowed an average of 1.7 yards after contact per carry (314 carries) to RBs last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 2.1.

The Chiefs defense allowed 93.7 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 126.8.

The Chiefs defense allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 3 of 83 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Chiefs defense allowed -0.60 epa per play with tight coverage last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.43.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Texans ran successful plays on 34% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 37% of plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans averaged 7.8 drives per TD in the 2nd half last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.4.

The Texans ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs