Buccaneers Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Buccaneers win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Last season, the Bucs defied its market expectation for the second year in a row. Tampa Bay easily cleared its preseason win total of 7.5, claiming 10 wins on the way to another NFC South title. 

Oddsmakers took note of the success and adjusted Tampa Bay’s win total to 9.5 for the 2025 season. It’s the first time since 2022 that the Bucs are projected to own a winning record. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Tampa Bay’s 2025 win total and my Bucs win total prediction. 

Buccaneers Win Total Odds

The Buccaneers’ season win total is set at 9.5 games, and oddsmakers rate the under as a slightly more likely outcome. 

Currently, Tampa Bay is to win nine or fewer games in 2025.

Conversely, oddsmakers price the Bucs at to win at least 10 games this year.

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC South teams:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9.5 Wins
• Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 Wins
• Carolina Panthers: 6.5 Wins
• New Orleans Saints: 6.5 Wins

Buccaneers 2025 Win Total Prediction

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 9.5 Wins (-110)

Based on implied probability, the Buccaneers are predicted to have under 9.5 wins with 53.5% confidence. Due to Liam Coen’s departure and Tampa Bay’s distribution of difficult games, I predict the Buccaneers finish Under 9.5 Wins (-110). 

BET: Buccaneers Over 9.5 Wins @ -130

BET: Buccaneers Under 9.5 Wins @ +110  

Evaluating the Buccaneers ahead of the 2025 season is a difficult task. Truthfully, I can make cases in both directions on this win total. 

The pessimistic view of Tampa Bay is that they lose Coen, an offensive coordinator who drastically improved the Bucs offense. 

Tampa Bay climbed from 20th in offensive DVOA in 2023 to seventh in 2024, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Some of that can be attributed to scheduling. Tampa Bay played the fifth-easiest set of opposing defenses in 2024 after playing the ninth-easiest in 2023. 

The biggest improvement came via the ground game. After finishing 28th in rush DVOA two years ago, Tampa Bay leaped to eighth in 2024. 

No meaningful departures impacted either the running backs room or offensive line in free agency. Naturally, one would expect that success would continue. 

Additionally, let’s not overlook the fact that Tampa Bay ranked fifth in pass DVOA despite losing 19.1 adjusted games to injury at wide receiver. Only the Saints and Chiefs lost more to the position.

The optimistic view of Tampa Bay is that, even if the offense takes a step back, a case for defensive improvement exists.  

The Bucs ranked out as a middling defense each of the last two years, but face a pretty easy schedule in 2025 from a defensive standpoint. 

Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, Tampa Bay goes from facing the eighth-hardest set of offenses in 2024 to the 19th-hardest in 2025. 

Only four games next season come against teams that ranked 10th or better in offensive DVOA last season. 

However, I can’t shake the feeling that, in taking this over, you’re backing a team to clear its win total for the third straight season. 

While the schedule is pretty easy – 11th-easiest by opponent win totals – a number of difficult games come away from home. 

Tampa Bay faces 10 games against teams with win totals currently set at 8.5 wins or higher. Six of those games come away from home. 

Because of that distribution, I lean towards under on the Bucs’ season win total. 

Most Wins in Buccaneers History

The Buccaneers’ franchise record for wins is 13, achieving that in 2021 before losing in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.

They have also won 12 games once in their history.

Fewest Wins in Buccaneers History

The Buccaneers’ franchise record for fewest wins is zero, going 0-14 in their first season in 1976.

They won only two games a year later in 1977, and didn’t have a winning record until 1979.