Steelers vs. Dolphins: NFL Week 15 Odds, Prediction

To cap off Week 15, the Steelers host the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. 

Pittsburgh won 27-22 in Baltimore on Sunday and is now favored to win the AFC North. This season, Mike Tomlin’s team has posted a 2-1 ATS record as a home favorite. 

Miami enters Monday’s game off a blowout win against the Jets. The 34-10 victory gave Mike McDaniel’s team a fourth straight win and fifth win over its last six games. 

Bet on Steelers vs. Dolphins and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Steelers vs. Dolphins: NFL Week 15 Odds

Steelers vs. Dolphins Prediction

If both Derrick Harmon and Darnell Washington miss Monday’s game for Pittsburgh, my Steelers vs Dolphins prediction is the Miami Dolphins Spread (+3.5, -118). 

I worry immensely about Pittsburgh’s defense if Harmon doesn’t play. The unit has now allowed two straight opponents to rush for over 200 yards. 

Harmon missed both of those games, along with a Week 1 trip to the Jets. In that contest, New York notched 182 rushing yards with Breece Hall accounting for 107. 

Now they’re facing a Miami ground game that ranks sixth in rush offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

De’Von Achane left Sunday’s game with a question mark. However, Miami’s margin likely contributed to his spell on the sidelines in Week 14. 

This season, Miami has dominated opponents when Achane has success. The Dolphins are 5-0 when Achane notches at least 18 carries and 5-1 when he clears 90 yards. 

That game plan should feature prominently against a Steelers defense that ranks 17th in rush defense DVOA for the year. 

Offensively, Pittsburgh could operate without a key piece. Tight end Darnell Washington exited Sunday’s game with a concussion. 

He gets extended time to clear protocol for Monday’s game. However, if Washington misses the game, it immediately harms the Steelers offense. 

This season, Pittsburgh is 4-1 when Washington plays at least 40 snaps. Otherwise, Tomlin’s team is 3-5. 

One final factor is worth considering here: Tua Tagovailoa’s record against man coverage. 

Albeit in a limited sample size – only 66 attempts – Tagovailoa ranks second in DVOA and third in EPA per dropback against man coverage. 

The same is true over his previous two seasons. In 2024, he ranked ninth in EPA per dropback against man after leading the NFL in that benchmark two years ago. 

Pittsburgh’s defense plays one of the highest rates of man coverage in the league. If Tagovailoa’s success continues, it could allow Miami’s offense to move the ball. 

If that’s the case, Miami should stay within this number and potentially win outright. 

Betting Steelers vs. Dolphins: NFL Public Betting